Covid 19 -

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 8th 2022.

41,743 new cases for Australia and 34 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (ê).

NZ reported 9,569 cases and 20 deaths for a CMR of 0.0112% (é).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.790% (-).

188,428 new cases in the USA yesterday and 660 deaths sees CMR at 1.189 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 559M;
July 1st was the first day over 1M global cases in ~3 months.
Europe passes 207M cases;
France passes 32M cases (and 150k deaths);
Taiwan passes 4M cases;

No countries recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and none drop below.

[tweeked]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

So, you had a problem, and in order to fix it and walk properly again you were willing to take that small risk. Thousands do that daily and the vast majority are corrected.

I just helped you just answer your own confusion. That vaccine is a small risk to mitigate a much larger one. You're welcome.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 8,670 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9838 (1.0119) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 7,934 cases for a 10 day average growth of 0.9906 (0.9923) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.

[T3rminator]

Experts say there are a number of factors to weigh up about getting a fourth dose of a COVID-19

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-07-...-now/101220226

"These vaccines don't control transmission the way they used to so it's more about your own assessment of risk and protecting yourself against the worst outcomes of the virus," he said.

"I think a lot of people in the 30- to 59-year age group will benefit, particularly people towards the 59-end of the spectrum."

.......................

But Australian National University public health and infectious disease expert Katrina Roper said there was not enough evidence at the moment to definitively say whether the fourth shot provided any additional protection for the under 65s.

"There isn't an enormous amount of data to indicate it could be useful but at the same time this is an evolving situation and someone has to be putting this into effect to see if it will be effective," Dr Roper said.

Have noticed that ATAGI has updated their booster vaccine recommendations at end of June. AZ and Novavax can now be used if someone decides they don't want Pfizer or Moderna. That was not an option before.

4 out of 7 of our current household have tested positive. The 4 have had 3 shots and are only exhibiting mild symptoms.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 9th 2022.

37,288 new cases for Australia and 77 deaths so the CMR is 0.122% (é). The country also passes 8,000 deaths for 2022.

NZ reported 9,536 cases and 21 deaths for a CMR of 0.0113% (é).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.790% (-).

121,483 new cases in the USA yesterday and 320 deaths sees CMR at 1.158 (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 560M;
Germany passes 29M cases;

No countries recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Albania moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Some more research from Israel based on aged care home residents.

Findings In this cohort study of 18 611 residents at 640 long-term care facilities, the risk of SARS-CoV-2 infection, COVID-19–related hospitalizations, and COVID-19–related deaths was 89% to 96% lower among residents who received a third dose of BNT162b2 (Pfizer) vaccine compared with those who only received 2 doses at least 5 months earlier during the Delta variant surge in Israel. Note that the mean age was almost 82 so it does represent a high risk group.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 10th 2022.

31,220 new cases for Australia and 12 deaths so the CMR is 0.122% (-).

NZ reported 7,746 cases and 9 deaths for a CMR of 0.0113% (-).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.790% (-).

31,144 new cases in the USA yesterday and 42 deaths sees CMR at 1.158 (-).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
None

Guatemala (6,041) recorded a new high; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 7,586 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9763 (0.9838) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 8,689 cases for a 10 day average growth of 1.0189 (0.9906) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 10,806 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0173 (0.9763) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 10,627 cases for a 10 day average growth of 1.0615 (1.0189) while the actual line is back above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 11th 2022.

28,664 new cases for Australia and 12 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (ê).

NZ reported 8,675 cases and 17 deaths for a CMR of 0.0113% (-).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.790% (-).

119,272 new cases in the USA yesterday and 328 deaths sees CMR at 1.157 (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 561M;
Europe passes 208M cases;
North America passes 107M cases;
Germany passes 29M cases;

No countriesd recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period and no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 10,622 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0356 (1.0173) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 11,176 cases for a 10 day average growth of 1.0364 (1.0615) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line is back below the predictive trend line.



As it was the end of our week yesterday, here are the weekly case numbers with NSW having 13,303 more cases than Victoria last week while Victoria recorded 6,414 more cases than the previous week; NSW recorded 5,470 more; Queensland 3,975 more; WA 4,979 more and SA 5,197 more.

The week totalled 271,147 cases, a 12.3% increase on last week.



.. and a closer look at the last 3 months:

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 12th 2022.

44,724 new cases for Australia and 58 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (-).

NZ reported 11,852 cases and 17 deaths for a CMR of 0.0113% (-).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.790% (-).

141,610 new cases in the USA yesterday and 236 deaths sees CMR at 1.155 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 562M;
Asia passes 163M cases;
Brazil passes 33M cases;
Spain passes 13M cases;
France passes 150k deaths;

No countries recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

No countries move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Cabo Verde and Spain drop below.

[russellw]

Global case numbers are up slightly this week to 6,074,886 (5,803,306 last week) and deaths are up slightly to 10,998 (10,402).

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 13th 2022.

44,242 new cases for Australia and 58 deaths so the CMR is 0.121% (-).

NZ reported 11,806 cases and 29 deaths for a CMR of 0.0114% (é).

The UK didn’t report for a CMR of 0.790% (-).

226,179 new cases in the USA yesterday and 1,041 deaths sees CMR at 1.153 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 563M;
Europe passes 2096M cases;

No countries recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Bolivia and Ecuador move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 14,235 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0686 (1.0356) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 11,283 cases for a 10 day average growth of 1.0499 (1.0364) while the actual line remains above the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 12,228 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 1.0372 (1.0686) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 10,584 cases for a 10 day average growth of 1.0243 (1.0499) while the actual line drops just below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[T3rminator]

I'm going to guess that those black lines are 5-10,000+ lower than whats really out there. Lots of people now reporting being sick, and we've just had our work EOFY drinks canned.

Our entire household, along with visitors staying, has finally succumbed to the plague. Who would have thought, after all the hoo ha of the past 18 months, it didn't happen through some random fleeting contacts or crowded event, but from family who flew in from the states for a visit

Interestingly, dad (70+) and the kids, have exhibited the least symptoms. Just a bit of dry cough, otherwise you wouldn't know they have it. Dad sometimes forgets he has it and starts getting ready to go grab something at the shops, and we have to stop him.

Mum, immune compromised and with pre-existing conditions, was pretty crook on day 1, so we got her on the antiviral. Was a bit of a pain going through telehealth on a Sunday to get the prescription, and the meds could only be delivered on the Monday late afternoon as the local chemist didn't have them in stock. But, it turned out to be very effective. Symptoms cleared pretty much the day after, and overall she is fairing better than I am.

My BIL (patient zero) and I copped it the worse. Similar to a bad case of the flu, aches, dry cough, frequent naps. Man flu?

For me its now day 5. Its not been pleasant, but think we'll all survive. All adults have had 3 jabs, except for the nephew and niece, and me, who have had 2.

I would say for anyone in the high risk group, consider speaking to your GP before you catch it to understand how you can access the antivirals. Then if/when the time comes, you can get straight on it without delay. The earlier you start the course the better I believe, there is a cut off where you can no longer start it if its 5 days after symptoms. Sometimes people don't test positive for a few days after symptoms start, so for those people, they have already lost some time.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 14th 2022.

47,205 new cases for Australia and 73 deaths so the CMR is 0.122% (é).

NZ reported 11,698 cases and 23 deaths for a CMR of 0.0115% (é).

The UK reported 191,365 cases and 862 deaths last week for a CMR of 0.787% (ê).

154,452 new cases in the USA yesterday and 577 deaths sees CMR at 1.152 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 565M;
USA passes 91M cases;
UK passes 23M cases;

Guatemala (7,747) recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Qatar and Peru move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[jaydee]

My disabled brother just got it. Lives in a care home, has Downs and onset dementia.
Got his GP to prescribe him the new anti viral medication that has had good reports of alleviating the symptoms.
He can't understand why he can't come out of his room or go any where and I'm not visiting him.
Hat's off to his carers in the house, because 2 of the 4 clients have it.

[Citroënbender]

Sorry to hear, hopefully he’ll clear it soon.

[russellw]

15/07/22
The current 15 day period of UK data for cases and elapsed mortalities has finished.

There were 226,242 (+106.9%) cases in the period to 25/6 and more than double the deaths with 1,515 between 26/6 and 10/7 for a CMR of 0.670% - a little lower than the previous period (0.675%).

Thus, in the 345 days since 'freedom day' they have totalled 17,127,043 cases and 51,887 deaths for an overall CMR of 0.303% which is above the 0.298% at day 330.

Here it is graphed - note that the base column at the end is the 2 week period prior to freedom day.

[arm79]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Our entire household, along with visitors staying, has finally succumbed to the plague. Who would have thought, after all the hoo ha of the past 18 months, it didn't happen through some random fleeting contacts or crowded event, but from family who flew in from the states for a visit

Sorry to hear its made it way into T3rminator land.

But now that I know this, I will observe the prevailing advice and wear a mask and rubber gloves when reading or replying to any of your posts. Apologies if replies that longer given I have to "suit up", but can't be too careful.

Joke aside I hope it goes with the minimum of fuss.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by arm79

Sorry to hear its made it way into T3rminator land.

But now that I know this, I will observe the prevailing advice and wear a mask and rubber gloves when reading or replying to any of your posts. Apologies if replies that longer given I have to "suit up", but can't be too careful.

Joke aside I hope it goes with the minimum of fuss.

Thanks Age. Plenty have been through worse. This is just a flesh wound. Had braced myself for it since lock downs lifted, was more worried about the folks. Though was really hoping to be one of the special mutants with super immunity. Was number 6 of 7 to get it, and had the infected nephew and niece jumping all over me for days before succumbing to the plague. Symptoms only started appearing quite a few days after patient 0 was ousted!

Interesting to hear Perrottet might be proposing to drop the isolation requirements altogether, apparently he is going to raise it at the national cabinet on Monday. That would bring us in line with the UK and US, not to say they are role models. Spoke to a mate in London a couple of days ago, his response was "you guys still talking about covid?" The US have a 5 day recommendation, but not mandated. You can really tell the difference in attitude with the out of towners.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 11,082 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9967 (1.0372) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 9,982 cases for a 10 day average growth of 1.0035 (1.0243) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Note that NSW passes 3M cases for whole of pandemic.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[Citroënbender]

Hypocrisy? An arch-exponent of “Lockdown against Covid, no matter the human cost” cheerfully enjoying the very things her choice of doctrine denied so many approaching their life’s end:

Speaking to Virginia Trioli, Professor McLaws said she's taking each day as it comes.

"I assume that I will die, I don't know when, and I'm just enjoying life and friends, and I think that's what you have to do," she said.

https://www.abc.net.au/melbourne/pro...onour/13926650

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 15th 2022.

43,273 new cases for Australia and 69 deaths so the CMR is 0.122% (-).

NZ reported 10,791 cases and 16 deaths for a CMR of 0.0115% (-).

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.787% (-).

120,303 new cases in the USA yesterday and 522 deaths sees CMR at 1.151 (ê).

Other notable points:
Global cases pass 566M;
Europe passes 210M cases;
Japan passes 10M cases;

No c ountries recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

Qatar and Peru move above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while Bahrain drops below.

[russellw]

Data valid as at 00:00 GMT July 16th 2022.

39,386 new cases for Australia and 75 deaths so the CMR is 0.122% (-).

NZ reported 9,526 cases and 28 deaths for a CMR of 0.0117% (é).

The UK didn’t report yesterday for a CMR of 0.787% (-).

147,355 new cases in the USA yesterday and 282 deaths sees CMR at 1.150 (ê).

Other notable points: (weekend reporting)
Global cases pass 567M;
North America passes 108M cases;
Asia passes 164M cases;
Italy passes 20M cases;

No countries recorded new highs; those in blue for the second consecutive day and those in red for a third or more consecutive day.

South Korea moves above the 90th percentile for the 10 day period while no countries drop below.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 10,198 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9919 (0.9967) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 9,630 cases for a 10 day average growth of 0.9979 (1.0035) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Note that West Australia passes 1M cases for whole of pandemic.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.

[russellw]

Global 17/07/22 (figures up to 16/07/22)

During the last 14 days, global CMR's have mostly been dropping with the global average now at 1.126% compared to 1.148% in the previous period and 2.154% a year ago today. Notably; Belarus, Canada, Denmark, Finland,Jamaica; New Zealand, Norway, Thailand and Taiwan all saw CMR rise.

Case numbers increase with 13.1097M in this period compared to 9.947M in the previous period with 26,274 deaths in the last period for a higher CMR of 0.288% on an unadjusted basis. It should be noted that a number of countries (mostly in Africa) haven’t reported in this period.

Overall the increase in cases numbers was 2.3% and the variance in the number of deaths only 0.41%.

Countries (with >100k cases) that were above 5% growth rate are Brunei (+10.4%); Taiwan (+9.5%); New Zealand (+9.5%); Singapore (+8.1%); Cyprus (+7.5%); Japan (+7.4%); Martinique (+7.4%); Italy (+6.9%); Guatemala (+6.5%);Australia (+6.4%); El Salvador (+6.3%); Mexico (+5.9%); Malta (+5.7%); and France (+5.3%).

Very few countries saw their mortalities increase by much with Taiwan (+15.2%); New Zealand (+14.2%) and Australia (+6.6%) the only significant growth amongst countries with >100k cases.

[russellw]

Australia / New Zealand
NSW records 9,761 cases for a 10-day average growth rate of 0.9919 (0.9919) and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.



VIC records 10,251 cases for a 10 day average growth of 1.0101 (0.9979) while the actual line remains below the predictive trend.



Here is the predictive trend graph for four States based on cases since Omicron was identified which, for our purposes, will be taken as December 1st. Note that West Australia passes 1M cases for whole of pandemic.



New Zealand data goes back to January 15th and the actual line remains below the predictive trend line.