Australia housing bubble

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

While they may have a contingency for rates 3 or 3.5% above the standard rate as a buffer that is all good and well if the application was true and honest.

And many got around that by not giving a true indication of their financial position.

I know my last loan application was as dodgy as all hell, but that was the only way to get it passed - go figure.

Think they are on track to get to that figure of 3 or 3.5%,think that is the RBA aim.It is going to be a ‘rocky road’ for some.

[Citroënbender]

What do the jury here, see as likely order of consumer self-restraint events and corporate opportunism?

Will “forever homes” not be flipped within so few years? Will people keep their phones longer or go onto three year lease plans? What about recreational equipment - sell the caravan or pool it in some small town facility that sub-leases them as holiday stays? Will the ARBs of the world bring out a new range of cheaper gear that has the looks without the beef, satisfying most real (non) applications of the gear? What about Uber or Amazon offering an all-in-one running finance model that covers online purchases of fares, goods, food? Maybe IKEA will offer a trade-in or lease option…

[zilo]

Originally Posted by hackney

Yes(fact).Don’t believe me?Research you fool.All banks do this, & have been doing this since last year(fact yet again.)

Burden of proof is on you...(fact)

Though you've crawled into your little hole by saying it's only mortgages since last year....(6 months ago)...

[hackney]

Originally Posted by zilo

Burden of proof is on you...(fact)

Though you've crawled into your little hole by saying it's only mortgages since last year....(6 months ago)...

You really are a fool.You obviously have no grasp of basic economics.What I have quoted is correct.There is no ‘burden’ of proof on me, I have given it you fool.

[hackney]

RBA fact:”the overall share of borrowers with a loan six or more times their income & a buffer of one month minimum repayments has declined since the pandemic, to just below 1%”.

[Citroënbender]

Are there any benefits in holding an incomplete residential development at this stage? I ask seriously, as I struggle to fathom what’s going on with some of what I see.

Around me in suburbia, there are four incomplete dual occupancy developments. One has gone for approaching three years of stop-start construction, and although appearing finished is not eligible for its Occupancy Certificate. Another is similarly appearing complete after eighteen months but experiencing ongoing dribbles of rework and remediation. A job started last October is progressing slowly and one commenced in December is - so far - racing along. It’s the cheapest build but I think will be on market first.

At prior sales pricing this is $15-$19M of unrealised gross income across all projects. I assumed that interested parties would be really keen to recoup their portion but it seems only one is. But as I mentioned, especially in light of any benefits to investors with overseas connections, is there any logic in what’s going on - or have they just combined ineptitude and slow reactions to mis-time their market position?

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by zilo

Burden of proof is on you...(fact)

Though you've crawled into your little hole by saying it's only mortgages since last year....(6 months ago)...

Originally Posted by hackney

You really are a fool.You obviously have no grasp of basic economics.What I have quoted is correct.There is no ‘burden’ of proof on me, I have given it you fool.

Play nice kiddies, we can do without the slanging match.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Play nice kiddies, we can do without the slanging match.

We could indeed if he was kicked!

[FairmontGS]

When we get back to ~ 7% for mortgages and 5% for interest on savings then equilibrium will be restored.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

When we get back to ~ 7% for mortgages and 5% for interest on savings then equilibrium will be restored.

Absolutely!

[danzvtil]

Nobody under 35 has had to deal with expensive interest rates, I remember in the early 00’s when I got married, we had a mortgage and TWO car loans, my mum went nuts saying we were overextended when she made do with the same XD wagon family car for 18 years.
Fast forward and it’s worse, every family member has a new car,JetSki,boat, the latest tv, $100/month iphone27, Bali holiday twice a year and designer clothes, but they can’t afford an increase in their mortgage. They will learn that prioritising expenses does not mean you are below the poverty line.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by danzvtil

Nobody under 35 has had to deal with expensive interest rates, I remember in the early 00’s when I got married, we had a mortgage and TWO car loans, my mum went nuts saying we were overextended when she made do with the same XD wagon family car for 18 years.
Fast forward and it’s worse, every family member has a new car,JetSki,boat, the latest tv, $100/month iphone27, Bali holiday twice a year and designer clothes, but they can’t afford an increase in their mortgage. They will learn that prioritising expenses does not mean you are below the poverty line.

Pretty spot on.Money has been cheap to purchase, as a result a lot have overextended by buying their ‘toy’s, redrawing off their mortgages with no thought of what can happen around the corner.They are now paying for that.I have absolutely no sympathy for them.Very bad financial management.

[FTE217]

Hey lets not be so black and white on people today over extending themselves.
Our ol days people were just as guilty works both ways.
Recall when "Bankcard" was first introduced, just like today I saw people spending above their means, just like their mortgages.
Human trait no matter the gen.

Nobody under 35yrs ? heck I'd push that to mid 40yrs of age at least.

[Charliewool]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/econ...a544d3ed68d1fd

[MITCHAY]

You can't throw out the high interest rates without considering income to property values. This is constantly not considered along with job security which is a lot different now.

You have to save more than the growth in prices which is ****en hard. I ended up in a townhouse which is really great after a long time looking because of my expectations where I'd otherwise be in a free standing house if I didn't **** around.

It's ridiculous though because I paid $430k for that and I could probably expect between $700-800k for if I sold that in a tad under 5 years. Zero improvements for it except for paint, carpet and curtains < $20k.

Luckily for me I'm earning nearly $30k more than when I bought it and rates have gone down but it quickly brought me back to earth on how much I ****ed up the wall

This **** won't effect me much at all but my mum who paid the same high interest rates reckons it's a lot harder now.

[buggerlugs]

Equity Mate, Equity..........

[Citroënbender]

I believe Mitchay has an important point in highlighting job security. It perhaps doesn’t matter when capital growth is raging along but if that drops back, one may be left more anxious than expected.

And for all the doom talk, why is nobody game to call what personal expenditure cuts Joe and Sally Schmoe are actually going to make first? My personal guess is putting off service events - contract gardening, car repairs, professional home maintenance.

[MITCHAY]

Another thing is workforce casualisation. On top of that there was a natural succession and progression when I got my first job in 2001 or 2002. Back then you could get any job you wanted. Even in the supermarkets now it's changed a whole heap.

Part of my own problem is I can't move up and there is no one to train up. I have made this clear to executives for years!

It's lazy to suggest to that young people aren't doing their best and that is true to some extent but even those who are can't get ahead.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by danzvtil

Nobody under 35 has had to deal with expensive interest rates, I remember in the early 00’s when I got married, we had a mortgage and TWO car loans, my mum went nuts saying we were overextended when she made do with the same XD wagon family car for 18 years.
Fast forward and it’s worse, every family member has a new car,JetSki,boat, the latest tv, $100/month iphone27, Bali holiday twice a year and designer clothes, but they can’t afford an increase in their mortgage. They will learn that prioritising expenses does not mean you are below the poverty line.

One thing I have always said is if people were really struggling then there would be no cars at the McDonalds drive through..

And there is generally always a line of cars.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I believe Mitchay has an important point in highlighting job security. It perhaps doesn’t matter when capital growth is raging along but if that drops back, one may be left more anxious than expected.

And for all the doom talk, why is nobody game to call what personal expenditure cuts Joe and Sally Schmoe are actually going to make first? My personal guess is putting off service events - contract gardening, car repairs, professional home maintenance.

I know many people that complain all day of how tough it is yet have subscriptions to all 5 or 6 streaming services and leave their AC on for their pet during the day when they are at work.

Figure that one out if you will....

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

One thing I have always said is if people were really struggling then there would be no cars at the McDonalds drive through..

And there is generally always a line of cars.

?? Maccas et al have a fool proof business case.

When times are tough they are the cheapest going around, when times are good people eat it more than they should...win win.

Its scary how much cheaper it is to "feed" a family there than the local fish and chip shop.

[MITCHAY]

Cold called again by LJ Hooker. Told them to **** off

What I don't know is if there are too many people wanting a place and they need supply or they are desperate for listings.

[Citroënbender]

I understand there is a genuine shortage of independent accommodation in many places with a healthy local economy. Can you covertly make your garage into a granny flat?

It’s jarring to know of multiple empty houses while people are scratching for a place. Some states protect renters better post-sale (eg, Tasmania is more stringent than NSW) but at the end of that buffer period - ordinary people are literally being given a raw deal.

[FairmontGS]

There's quite a few empties around here (Inner West) that have been for lease for months. There's also some nice units down the street which have always been empty because the people who own them live in HK and Singapore and don't need the money.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

There's quite a few empties around here (Inner West) that have been for lease for months. There's also some nice units down the street which have always been empty because the people who own them live in HK and Singapore and don't need the money.

Dont even start me on that!

[danzvtil]

Did a job down south today, had to go thru some struggle street suburbs to get there. One thing that stood out was the number of caravans and campers set up in peoples front yards semi permanently. One yard had 2 blokes camping with all their belongings, so not on holidays. This must be the result of the crazy rental market at the moment.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by hackney

You really are a fool.You obviously have no grasp of basic economics..

How many islands do you own?

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by zilo

How many islands do you own?

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by zilo

How many islands do you own?

Wondering when this thread would turn in to a "Who has the biggest pecker" contest............

[Citroënbender]

That’s easy. A pelican! …Normal programmes resume shortly.

Roads outbound were chockers earlier yesterday than normal for a Friday, so whatever fiscal restraint people are feeling or claiming is still being substantially suspended.