Australia housing bubble

[Eaturbo]

There's going to be pain no matter how you look at it. Huge prices means people will never own there's house or have spare cash to enjoy life. Or the market crashes and people everywhere lose there houses. There's no winners in either scenario. I personally believe houses are way overpriced and if we ever do fall on tough times we are in big trouble. At the moment it's a case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Eaturbo

There's going to be pain no matter how you look at it. Huge prices means people will never own there's house or have spare cash to enjoy life. Or the market crashes and people everywhere lose there houses. There's no winners in either scenario. I personally believe houses are way overpriced and if we ever do fall on tough times we are in big trouble. At the moment it's a case of the rich getting richer and the poor getting poorer.

I disagree.

There are literally thousands of jobs on offer for those that want to work.

During my divorce I was working almost 90 hrs a week and making substantial money to feed the lawyers and keep my house from repossession.

Now is an amazing time for 'poor' first home buyers. They can work multiple jobs and eventually buy into a market that's on the way down.

But... that's totally up to them.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I disagree.

There are literally thousands of jobs on offer for those that want to work.

During my divorce I was working almost 90 hrs a week and making substantial money to feed the lawyers and keep my house from repossession.

Now is an amazing time for 'poor' first home buyers. They can work multiple jobs and eventually buy into a market that's on the way down.

But... that's totally up to them.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

The problem is though, people these days have never known high interest rates.It has been super low for nigh on ten years.I(& you) have been through that when it was really tough.We had a couple of investment properties in Sydney,rates were going up,& we were struggling,living from fortnight to fortnight, we got through though, would not want to revisit those years @ all.Now they are whining & complaining about how tough it is going to get.Welcome to the real world.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

That’s easy. A pelican! …Normal programmes resume shortly.

I was going to say you are wrong and it's actually a duck.

Then I re read it a few times...

'I see what you did there lol '

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

[BENT_8]

Depends what they want from their own home as to whats achievable.
We've been renting since December 05 after we sold our family home.
3 of our 4 kids have left home and we no longer need the 4 bedroom home. We've been fairly lucky in that we had the owner sack their property manager 9 yrs ago so our rent only went up $80 from $285 to $365 in that time and is currently around $100pw under market prices.

Our build we're starting will cost us $276k for a 2 bed, 2.5bth townhouse with every upgrade ticked including ducted reverse cycle air, stone benchtops, frameless glass, quality appliances, with repayments at $280pw through Homestart at their already higher rates over 20yrs.
Once we refinance it'll go down as bank rates are cheaper and the term longer even if bank rates go up.
We'll be saving heaps over renting by down sizing and gaining our own brand spanking place.
Never recoup the money lost in rent but that wasnt all ours either thanks to rent assistance.

[Eaturbo]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I disagree.

There are literally thousands of jobs on offer for those that want to work.

During my divorce I was working almost 90 hrs a week and making substantial money to feed the lawyers and keep my house from repossession.

Now is an amazing time for 'poor' first home buyers. They can work multiple jobs and eventually buy into a market that's on the way down.

But... that's totally up to them.

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

That's OK your allowed to disagree. But if your idea of living is working 90 hours a week or where both parents work 45 hours then that's not for me. I grew up in a household where my Dad worked full time and mum stayed home to look after the house and kids until we were 12. That's what families did for 100 years. Now we work to pay bills and no family time. I don't see any winners from our current house prices.

[Citroënbender]

Have heard about a few instances of this, clearly the developer has no interest in coming to the party. They’ve had zero interest funding for their land bank while councils and governments tick boxes without concern for timescales.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-...eams/101145264

Shame the people aren’t in a position to build, put in a pumpout and then switch over/remediate.

[galaxy xr8]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Have heard about a few instances of this, clearly the developer has no interest in coming to the party. They’ve had zero interest funding for their land bank while councils and governments tick boxes without concern for timescales.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-...eams/101145264

Shame the people aren’t in a position to build, put in a pumpout and then switch over/remediate.

Is that the same subject of land that has been in headlines in past months because the developer sold the land years back at what was then lower prices compared to todays worth, and the time frame is about to expire for people to start their building. But due to red tape and the developer having a close tie accomplice in council in the area, people that have bought land there have been unable to start their build process because of something like occupancy titles or such that have been deliberately put in place in order to halt building proceedings with the time frame luring, then when this time lapses the developer can then on sell the land at todays higher/marked up prices.

Such a dog act.

[Citroënbender]

Yes, it’s something like you describe. Titles aren’t being registered until the services are completed, presumably it’s just a bunch of DP’s with no lots right now. There may well be a caveat or similar on the original sale that binds you to a contractor under pain of liability if you go elsewhere. I can’t comment on any dodgy connections but it’s rough on the people who paid in good faith. It’s also changed in how you can assert your position since 2019, as the issuing of temporary Oc Certs is gone due to abuse. So you can’t so easily make reasonable effort to comply, get your temp OC and stonewall until it’s made right.

A bit like I read the other day that LDV is apparently putting up prices on pre-orders, I’m sure there’s a clause people sign to acknowledge this stuff but it’s unsociable greed IMO.

[Sprintey]

Originally Posted by Trump

The root cause of the housing affordability problem (and the rest of the economic woes) isn't negative gearing or capital gains related, nor is it about supply and demand. It exists along with the other economic maladies because the banks control the currency and not the treasury. Because as it stands, for every dollar in the form of cash, there are ten more that are credit-derived (any form of bank-sourced credit).

Sound money issued by the treasury and only the treasury (whether it be in the form of physical notes and coins, their electronic equivalent, gold and silver or a combination of all three) wouldn't allow the banks to issue credit hand over fist and fuel a speculators paradise.

Amen Mr Trump. Add 100% reserve banking to that

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Eaturbo

That's OK your allowed to disagree. But if your idea of living is working 90 hours a week or where both parents work 45 hours then that's not for me. I grew up in a household where my Dad worked full time and mum stayed home to look after the house and kids until we were 12. That's what families did for 100 years. Now we work to pay bills and no family time. I don't see any winners from our current house prices.

No, you don't get what I'm saying. Of course you are not 'living' doing that. BUT if you did it for a few years to better your long term prospects then it's something that can be done. If you so choose.

It's engrained in our laidback lifestyle to live for the day and worry for tomorrow... tomorrow. A grave mistake in our modern lifestyle where things are predictably unstable and have been for several years.

I'm talking from experience here. At 14 I started work and got every minute of overtime I could get. I didn't care for my short term pleasures.

Those smarter than me were also offered lots of overtime. They declined it.

When I asked them as a joke why they didn't work more they tapped their temples and said with a smile... "If I do that extra work I will get pushed into the next tax bracket and pay more tax."

I wonder where those clever people are now? I don't really care to be honest.

At 18 I bought my first house and between then and 35 I invested heavily in residential property and commercial property.

I planned my retirement for 40. Throw in a divorce where my ex tried to garnish me of my assets (and failed) I had to pay well over $350k in legal fees and final settlement.

Oh well, such is life. I can look my girls in the eye and tell them I did my best for them and their futures. I'm now semi retired at 43, work when I want, and am at home for my 2 girls.

I'm currently sitting in a hotel in Singapore with my mum and my daughter after being somewhat miffed with the Sydney cold weather so I shouted my mum to a shopping trip.

Its the 3rd overseas trip I have done in as many months and in 3 weeks I'm taking my girls and my mum to Canada for 3 weeks.

Short term pain = long term gain. I planned my retirement at 15 and it gave me a bloody good life. I'm far, far better off than most around me and it's not from getting it handed to me. I'm not saying that to brag or gloat, just to show first hand what can be possible - if you so choose and believe me had everything gone my way in life my situation would be far better again but I'm not complaining one bit.

I don't work to pay bills, I have more family time then I know what do do with and have money in the bank to see me through to my grave.

The times of families getting by on a single regular income are long gone unless you moved to regional areas.

Either you get with the times and adapt or remenis on the past and use that as an excuse to remain stagnant.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I'm talking from experience here. At 14 I started work and got every minute of overtime I could get.

You did so at a time when doing that made a significant difference. A 14yo today will never achieve what you did, because house prices as an income multiple are overwhelmingly higher.

At 18 I bought my first house and between then and 35 I invested heavily in residential property and commercial property.

You did so at a time when the stars aligned.... falling interest rates, CGT changes which spurred investment like never before, lax lending allowing you to borrow with only equity.

Anyone trying to repeat what early-2000s investors did would have no real prospect of repeating the investment windfall of the last 2 decades. Those conditions no longer exist.

Congrats on your life and investments. But honestly, its a bit like someone saying 'you can win lotto too, you just have to start buying tickets'. Not disputing you made sacrifices to get where you are, but to do what you did TODAY requires more sacrifice than is mathematically possible.

[Citroënbender]

I knew a bloke who was a hard-working tradesman, brought down by IBS. He ended up doing small warranty jobs and inspections for an importer because no matter his ethic, the very real prospect of him dropping one in his pants with just seconds warning made most of his trade work unfeasible.

He might have started at a similar time to YF, but uncontrollable circumstances greatly compromised his outcomes (and decimated his income). I didn’t get on with this fellow but wholly empathised with his situation - still pushing forward rather than bleating and on the DSP. So, I absolutely agree with the comment of stars aligning for some.

[hackney]

Things are about to get a lot sticker in this country with mortgage rates.US Fed has raised by a 75 basis points. Good interview with Phillip Lowe on 7.30 report the other night.We could well go 75 basis points in July.Reading between the lines,they could well keep going up until they are satisfied that inflation is well under control.

[Citroënbender]

Just watching another two houses worth of timber get pulverised. What materials shortage? This is unbelievable. People getting paid to destroy and tip materials that could be reincorporated with very little extra planning. Floors are hard to recycle if they’ve been sanded/sealed but structural timber is substantially re-usable. Perhaps some people hit with construction cost increases could push back and ask for recycled content.

[b0son]

This is Australia, it would need to be 'certified' as structurally reusable, and because it would be considered value-adding, it would be charged at a premium and the people involved paying themselves like a high-skilled industry. Would end up being more expensive than new.

[fordomatic]

I'm with Yellow Festiva here, work hard and smart and it pays off in the end. At 14 I was working 30 hours a week and still managed an enter score of 86 at the end of year 12. I grew up with bugger all and refused to be like Mum and Dad wasting their money away.

I don't need to go into my personal situation but if you work hard and are smart with your money you can achieve what you want, but it takes sacrifices. I've never paid more than $25,000 for a car and the houses i've bought i could afford. While my mates bought two brand new $80,000 cars and a house they couldn't afford. I've had set backs, I was all set to retire at 40 but some things happened, I moved on and started again.

I'm not in as good of a position as Yellow, but i'll retire at 55 and be sitting pretty. I earn less than 90% of my mates and have a wife and 2 kids. Financially if you dont take into account mates that scored inheritance from their parents we are the best off out of them all. Smart decisions and hard work.

My wife doesnt work and won't work until the kids are in school. We saved hard for 2 years to be able to this, it's added about 8 years to when i can retire but for us it's something we wanted to do. Yet all her friends are jelous that she stays at home and they have to work.

Point is, even through COVID on my average wage we haven't lost a cent, we have managed to save money and live within our means. Our friends on the other hand make dumb decisions and then go running to their parents for help, their parents that worked their butts off to get into the situation they are.

I don't buy the woe is me mentality of the newer geneations saying how hard their lives are. Life is what you make it and every choice is yours to make however you want to do it.

[fordomatic]

Not needed

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Just watching another two houses worth of timber get pulverised. What materials shortage? This is unbelievable. People getting paid to destroy and tip materials that could be reincorporated with very little extra planning. Floors are hard to recycle if they’ve been sanded/sealed but structural timber is substantially re-usable. Perhaps some people hit with construction cost increases could push back and ask for recycled content.

Agree that's just totally wrong. New houses these days are so cheap in quality.

As for certification brought up that's rubbish.
Its because new Legoland type developments have clauses that insist on using new materials, like fake wood, stick on Stonemasonry and fake bricks.
There wouldn't be a huge renovation market for used building supplies otherwise.
eg. Old bridge timbers, early quarried Sydney sandstone is highly prized second hand resource as are sandstock bricks and proper timber casement windows.

Last time I looked there are quite a few owner and small scale builders prepared to do the work and use secondhand quality than new garbage.
Nothing wrong with adding value into a quality built home.

[FTE217]

I do understand the younger ones woe is me and all and at the same time I like to say harden up ! and live with less......
I'm older than a few of you (not by much haha) and 3 kids at varying ages, 30/21/17, I tell my wife when she has a moan about one or all of them I say hey, we brought them up ?!
Compared to what my wife and I grew up with (which was 2/5ths of f all but damn happy) ours are spoilt - I say that very lightly for no way near what you may think.
We've been the last to give in to every single new tech thing that started coming out way back like play station etcetc..the very last.
We always said NO not yet and or earn it do your chores, we're told we're mean back then lol.
Easy hand outs were not in our way of bringing them up thats for sure.
During those times both of us worked our butts off, I've been in my fam business for a long time, never overpaid until we finally reaped the rewards after putting so much into the business, talking cars as Fordo I didn't get my own NEW car till 2016 the Sprint.
I said enough is enough wifey gets a new Mazda in 2018.
Prior all were pre owned good low k someone else copped the hit.
No expensive hols here there but good smart buying hols on deals or those wonderful drive fam hols you cherish more than any over priced gucci type hol.
In the meantime we always put in extra in the mortgage to knock it off - that was the primary goal ! and done. Sacrifice, thats life from the dark ages to today.
Invested wash rinse do it again.
I couldn't retire like you YT early, got mates who have as well, couldn't bare it, I like my 4day week and thats flexi in any case.
Eldest just got married, they have saved their rings off ready to buy, no diff to us way back then.....
No2 is a smart cookie and has played in the share market and picked up some great gains prior the recent drop, enough to start considering buying a apartment investment here in Syd, thats no mean feat at 21, sure he's living at home but whilst a portion of his mates are partying more he's partying smarter.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

I'm with Yellow Festiva here, work hard and smart and it pays off in the end. At 14 I was working 30 hours a week and still managed an enter score of 86 at the end of year 12. I grew up with bugger all and refused to be like Mum and Dad wasting their money away.

I don't need to go into my personal situation but if you work hard and are smart with your money you can achieve what you want, but it takes sacrifices. I've never paid more than $25,000 for a car and the houses i've bought i could afford. While my mates bought two brand new $80,000 cars and a house they couldn't afford. I've had set backs, I was all set to retire at 40 but some things happened, I moved on and started again.

I'm not in as good of a position as Yellow, but i'll retire at 55 and be sitting pretty. I earn less than 90% of my mates and have a wife and 2 kids. Financially if you dont take into account mates that scored inheritance from their parents we are the best off out of them all. Smart decisions and hard work.

My wife doesnt work and won't work until the kids are in school. We saved hard for 2 years to be able to this, it's added about 8 years to when i can retire but for us it's something we wanted to do. Yet all her friends are jelous that she stays at home and they have to work.

Point is, even through COVID on my average wage we haven't lost a cent, we have managed to save money and live within our means. Our friends on the other hand make dumb decisions and then go running to their parents for help, their parents that worked their butts off to get into the situation they are.

I don't buy the woe is me mentality of the newer geneations saying how hard their lives are. Life is what you make it and every choice is yours to make however you want to do it.

And you will reap the benefits of your kids being raised by mum so much rather than being dumped in child care. That will be one of your best decisions in life. We done the same. Wouldn't have it any other way.
The only problem you have is that you like AU's........

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by FTE217

I do understand the younger ones woe is me and all and at the same time I like to say harden up ! and live with less......
I'm older than a few of you (not by much haha) and 3 kids at varying ages, 30/21/17, I tell my wife when she has a moan about one or all of them I say hey, we brought them up ?!
Compared to what my wife and I grew up with (which was 2/5ths of f all but damn happy) ours are spoilt - I say that very lightly for no way near what you may think.
We've been the last to give in to every single new tech thing that started coming out way back like play station etcetc..the very last.
We always said NO not yet and or earn it do your chores, we're told we're mean back then lol.
Easy hand outs were not in our way of bringing them up thats for sure.
During those times both of us worked our butts off, I've been in my fam business for a long time, never overpaid until we finally reaped the rewards after putting so much into the business, talking cars as Fordo I didn't get my own NEW car till 2016 the Sprint.
I said enough is enough wifey gets a new Mazda in 2018.
Prior all were pre owned good low k someone else copped the hit.
No expensive hols here there but good smart buying hols on deals or those wonderful drive fam hols you cherish more than any over priced gucci type hol.
In the meantime we always put in extra in the mortgage to knock it off - that was the primary goal ! and done. Sacrifice, thats life from the dark ages to today.
Invested wash rinse do it again.
I couldn't retire like you YT early, got mates who have as well, couldn't bare it, I like my 4day week and thats flexi in any case.
Eldest just got married, they have saved their rings off ready to buy, no diff to us way back then.....
No2 is a smart cookie and has played in the share market and picked up some great gains prior the recent drop, enough to start considering buying a apartment investment here in Syd, thats no mean feat at 21, sure he's living at home but whilst a portion of his mates are partying more he's partying smarter.

Can understand all the hard work most here did to achieve the house ownership and lifestyle.

I must have been dropped on the head as I went in the opposite direction.
Most had the house, the job and the retirement then wanting to travel Oz and beyond.
Finished the apprenticeship at 20, never wanted to work for anyone else, started contract work and lived in various ways travelling abroad and within Aust but was never interested in buying a house.
This lifestyle worked well for a couple who never wanted children.
After self building/converting 2 boats, 4 motorhomes, couple of campervans often thought as nothing stays the same, it might be time to at least buy land as a base. So in 2004 bought a 1 acre piece of land on the outskirts of a small town with public transport access and built a offgrid little house.
Land was purchased after all the years saving enough and building myself as funds became available without resorting to loans.

Probably could never had afforded to do this in a city, funny thing is we both still don't want to live in a house full time.

[Citroënbender]

Right. We had to get up in the morning at ten o’clock at night, half an hour before I went to bed, drink a cup of sulphuric acid, work twenty-nine hours a day down mill…

[FTE217]

Nice life storey roKWiz....less stress by the sound of it compared to so many sounds like you guys are in a good space.

[danzvtil]

Just can’t get over the entitlement mentality today, on the radio was some house rental advocate saying rental houses should have solar and insulation as standard to “save the poor tenant money”. It’s soo easy to spend other peoples cash, they don’t realise if the bar is lifted too high, then every $400/wk home will start at $550wk, those things aren’t free and the owner needs a return.

[Citroënbender]

I’ve run a rental unit for family, generally I favoured accommodating the tenants’ reasonable requests as it was a decent sum they were paying. When it eventually came back to owner-occupation after twelve years, the result of this approach meant little more than one leaky shower to fix, a few minor electrical tweaks and a light clean. Better than needing a full refit because I’d cheaped out prior.

As to economic stresses - I noticed at the supermarkets tonight, nobody at the tobacco counter. Chop-chop must be booming again.

[Itsme]

Originally Posted by danzvtil

Just can’t get over the entitlement mentality today, on the radio was some house rental advocate saying rental houses should have solar and insulation as standard to “save the poor tenant money”. It’s soo easy to spend other peoples cash, they don’t realise if the bar is lifted too high, then every $400/wk home will start at $550wk, those things aren’t free and the owner needs a return.

Hence the reason why people find it hard to get rentals, personally I would never rent a dwelling in this day and age.
You going to see more people living on the streets with this type of stupidity.

Cheers.

PS: I know a few people now who are putting their rental investments up for sale.

[danzvtil]

[QUOTE

PS: I know a few people now who are putting their rental investments up for sale.[/QUOTE]

I know a lot of landlords who are selling up. The prices are sky high, and rules governing renting houses out are becoming onerous.

[GXA]

Originally Posted by danzvtil

[QUOTE
I know a lot of landlords who are selling up. The prices are sky high, and rules governing renting houses out are becoming onerous.

Yes they are, but that will push rents up very nicely....

[MITCHAY]

I was joking with my boss the other day, that with my cash and super if I could withdraw it all I could pay off my house. Yeh nah as it turns out, not by a lot but I don't have the cash difference to cover it

2019-2020 was lean in Covid but then in 2020-2021 it really exploded for me but now seems 2021-22 is back in Covid times despite everyone just out and about normal WTF?