Australia housing bubble

[b0son]

Originally Posted by MITCHAY

2019-2020 was lean in Covid but then in 2020-2021 it really exploded for me but now seems 2021-22 is back in Covid times despite everyone just out and about normal WTF?

we were absolutely flat out over 2019-20, but business has been falling off ever since, down to almost half of what it was. I'll be surprised if we're still open after xmas. meanwhile most people I know are doing better than they ever have. not surprisingly, I'm a bit over life right now TBH.

[roKWiz]

Seems 2020's are the years of the B & B investment conversions.

The mid 80's was all about Deer Farms.
Mid 90's, the trend was Ostrich Farming and Angus studs.
00's the 10's were the years to invest in a trendy Boutique vineyard or Olive Groves.

From what I've been learning from clients, housing investors just keep moving their money around and claim the govco incentives. Rentals are becoming a constant money pit so they change tack to do the build/reno a quaint cottage on a country estate and rent it, at premium prices.
Just my observations judging by the amount of entranceways, fireplaces and chimneys on the to do list for the next couple of years.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by b0son

we were absolutely flat out over 2019-20, but business has been falling off ever since, down to almost half of what it was. I'll be surprised if we're still open after xmas. meanwhile most people I know are doing better than they ever have. not surprisingly, I'm a bit over life right now TBH.

hope your gonna survive mate and don't think of the worst, not a nice post to see from a fellow aff member.
There will always be people in far worse situations.
Covid sure has rocked some industries to the weeds and others doubled.
As a small business owner I sympathise, people remind me about Ukraine or Africans etc - then I re set my head yer it could be worse.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by b0son

we were absolutely flat out over 2019-20, but business has been falling off ever since, down to almost half of what it was. I'll be surprised if we're still open after xmas. meanwhile most people I know are doing better than they ever have. not surprisingly, I'm a bit over life right now TBH.

+1. My 2020-21 year was the best Ive ever had. Things have dropped since then but in the construction industry we have learnt to ride the waves. That said, I am 100% with you on being over life right now. Things are tough and from what Ive been reading they are gonna get tougher.

Hope you are able to at least have a good week.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by b0son

You did so at a time when doing that made a significant difference. A 14yo today will never achieve what you did, because house prices as an income multiple are overwhelmingly higher.

You did so at a time when the stars aligned.... falling interest rates, CGT changes which spurred investment like never before, lax lending allowing you to borrow with only equity.

Anyone trying to repeat what early-2000s investors did would have no real prospect of repeating the investment windfall of the last 2 decades. Those conditions no longer exist.

Congrats on your life and investments. But honestly, its a bit like someone saying 'you can win lotto too, you just have to start buying tickets'. Not disputing you made sacrifices to get where you are, but to do what you did TODAY requires more sacrifice than is mathematically possible.

Actually no. I was deemed a high risk borrower as I was working casually while also going through UNI and as such found it very hard to get a loan.

My punishment for starting early was to pay penalty interest rates. If fact, I was turned away by all the big banks, one manager telling me to come back when I was 23, after I had graduated and after I had accepted a 'permanent' full time job.

I disagree that what I did can't be done today. Rates, while going up are causing prices to go down.

There are more jobs available than ever before. Many paying above average wages and with 'sign on' bonuses.

First home buyers have a whole bunch of perks and incentives to buy a property.

The job situation has also changed. With the giga economy I can do multiple jobs, between my normal jobs from the comfort of my car and can stop and start when and how I please.

None of this was the case when I started.

In Sydney you can buy a studio for low 200k. A 1 br unit for high 200's, a 2br unit for low 300's and larger 3br units are starting to hover at high 400's to low 500's.

And that's Sydney, the most expensive capital in Australia. Prices would be lower everywhere else.

That's now. I'm predicting they will drop another 10% by early to mid next year.

Lets say someone has the ability to earn $80k by putting in the hard yards, that's well and truly a deposit on any of the above properties.

Doing it as a couple? Even better.

Had I been in the position to start now I would have stuck to the exact same methods I did the first time. Make as much as you can, spend as little as possible then when you have a decent amount of deposit of at least 20 or 30% buy something.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Actually no. I was deemed a high risk borrower as I was working casually while also going through UNI and as such found it very hard to get a loan.

You wouldnt get that loan today. And the equivalent purchase would be 2-3x more expensive.

I disagree that what I did can't be done today. Rates, while going up are causing prices to go down.

The price drop isnt reducing repayments as much as rate hikes are increasing them. You may disagree with the numbers, but I've heard predictions of 20% fall in prices and a 3% hike in rates over the next 18mths. That equates to $300pm MORE in repayments.

There are more jobs available than ever before. Many paying above average wages and with 'sign on' bonuses.

Many of which will be shed as the recession takes hold.

First home buyers have a whole bunch of perks and incentives to buy a property.

We all know all those things did was simply add to the price.

The job situation has also changed. With the giga economy I can do multiple jobs, between my normal jobs from the comfort of my car and can stop and start when and how I please.

I wont be ubering anything during a recession.... I suspect I'm not the only one.

None of this was the case when I started.

It didnt need to be. I'd have thought someone might have asked why by now....

Lets say someone has the ability to earn $80k by putting in the hard yards, that's well and truly a deposit on any of the above properties.

They dont get to keep that $80k. Have you seen rent in Sydney? FFS, a granny flat in Leppington was asking nearly $600pw.

Had I been in the position to start now I would have stuck to the exact same methods I did the first time.

I never said not to. I just said you wont make as much money from this approach this time around. The starting points are completely different. The potential long term gains wont be the same. Sure, they'll probably still be able to retire early, but maybe 10 years later than you. Worth aiming for, absolutely, but lets not blame their work ethic or taste for smashed avo for the fact they wont finish where you did.

Why is it so hard for us to accept we had it better than our kids will (financially)? I dont think there's an economist anywhere who would argue that isnt the case moving forward. It was always going to be the case as we embraced globalisation, that it would be at the expense of our own standard of living.

Edit: BTW, full disclosure, I'm trying to buy a property at the moment with an aim to eventually supplement our retirement income, and also to help our daughter get her foot in the property market when the time comes. Due to a combination of a wildly optimistic developer re: lead time, covid, building material shortages and the incessant rain, construction wont start til Dec, some 18mths later than what we were told when we put down a deposit. in that 18 mths, business went from ok to sh1thouse, the builder has jacked up the price by $100k because the sunset date had passed, and what should have been a no-cost investment will be cashflow negative anywhere up to $1000pm by next xmas. So no, I'm not feeling the property market optimism. Logic says I should stay the course because things will sort themselves out within the next 2-3 years, but that's easier said than done when you're quite likely not to be working at a time nobody's likely to be hiring.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by b0son

Y
Why is it so hard for us to accept we had it better than our kids will (financially)?

I was sympathetic to the current generation and the years it would take to pay off a house.

But now one of my sons earns 200k plus a year and another earned 500k last year.
My sister earns 200k a year and zooms most of the time.

I asked a plasterer if he was interested in doing ajob for me, reckons he wouldnt get out of bed for less than 80 bucks an hour....cash.

FFS...

[b0son]

Originally Posted by zilo

But now one of my sons earns 200k plus a year and another earned 500k last year.

hardly representative... the median weekly household income is less than $2k.

[danzvtil]

Doing a western vic road trip, astounded at the property prices, any moderately sized regional town, houses and land are approaching city prices. Halls gap appears to have doubled, there are no old fibro shacks for $200k anymore I guess it’s the bolt hole effect.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by danzvtil

Doing a western vic road trip, astounded at the property prices, any moderately sized regional town, houses and land are approaching city prices. Halls gap appears to have doubled, there are no old fibro shacks for $200k anymore I guess it’s the bolt hole effect.

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/pr...rce=refinement

[danzvtil]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

https://www.realestate.com.au/buy/pr...rce=refinement

Yeah, you missed the “moderately sized” bit.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by danzvtil

Yeah, you missed the “moderately sized” bit.

Meh… they are all near your moderately sized towns…

[b0son]

Originally Posted by danzvtil

Doing a western vic road trip, astounded at the property prices, any moderately sized regional town, houses and land are approaching city prices. Halls gap appears to have doubled, there are no old fibro shacks for $200k anymore I guess it’s the bolt hole effect.

I was gobsmacked when I saw house prices in Yass ... $1m! YASS!!

I mean, this place is probably best known to us Sydney-siders as the place that has that McD sign that says 'Myass opens at 6am'. Somewhere you pass through on the way down the Hume, but not somewhere you go to.

[Citroënbender]

I’d be happy there. If you’ve got dam/gorge views and a decent block it’s not too bad. Dry heat in summer, nicer than Sydney humidity. Would prefer it to Gunning, for example. But likely choose Binalong over either.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by b0son

I was gobsmacked when I saw house prices in Yass ... $1m! YASS!!

I mean, this place is probably best known to us Sydney-siders as the place that has that McD sign that says 'Myass opens at 6am'. Somewhere you pass through on the way down the Hume, but not somewhere you go to.

We are in Yass! Ours is now around the 1.1k!

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I’d be happy there. If you’ve got dam/gorge views and a decent block it’s not too bad. Dry heat in summer, nicer than Sydney humidity. Would prefer it to Gunning, for example. But likely choose Binalong over either.

Love Gunning, so close to buying a base there in 2000. Ex Masons lodge was 50G at the time.
Fantastic old Hume to ride, so many dirt bicycle circuits to the north and south. 2 good little cafes, servo/supermarket, super friendly people, Breadalbane plain, Craig the local mechanic, bio diesel community.

XPT on demand to Syd/Melb. Firefly to Syd/Melb.

Binalong was great until they lost their rail station.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Love Gunning, so close to buying a base there in 2000. Ex Masons lodge was 50G at the time.
Fantastic old Hume to ride, so many dirt bicycle circuits to the north and south. 2 good little cafes, servo/supermarket, super friendly people, Breadalbane plain, Craig the local mechanic, bio diesel community.

XPT on demand to Syd/Melb. Firefly to Syd/Melb.

Binalong was great until they lost their rail station.

Gunning is a nice little town!Australian actor Max Cullen lives there,& has a art gallery there.He was in the movie ‘Sunday to far away’ with Jack Thompson.Lovely man.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by hackney

Gunning is a nice little town!Australian actor Max Cullen lives there,& has a art gallery there.He was in the movie ‘Sunday to far away’ with Jack Thompson.Lovely man.

A few nice celebs and mad eccentrics live their.
The guy who makes all the round concrete speakers springs to mind, lives in the granite facade shopfront.
Spent quite a bit of time there. In fact was our 1999-2000 millennium bolt hole when the world was going to end.
Michael McGirr wrote the book "Bypass" here.

[Citroënbender]

I recall Andrew Denton was around that way as well. Complete with red Maloo.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-...oans/101175258
Have to say, I’m still not hearing of too many people actually experiencing repossession - maybe they’re jumping before they’re pushed?

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I recall Andrew Denton was around that way as well. Complete with red Maloo.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-...oans/101175258
Have to say, I’m still not hearing of too many people actually experiencing repossession - maybe they’re jumping before they’re pushed?

It will take time, first is the day to day squeeze, then start eating savings then selling smaller assests then it not good.

Who knows, Australia is an odd place and we seem to avoid somethings we shoudnt.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by hackney

We are in Yass! Ours is now around the 1.1k!

haha... what a time to be alive

what's driving it? treechangers?

[hackney]

Originally Posted by b0son

haha... what a time to be alive

I can tell you,I am very much alive!!

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by hackney

Gunning is a nice little town!Australian actor Max Cullen lives there,& has a art gallery there.He was in the movie ‘Sunday to far away’ with Jack Thompson.Lovely man.

Gunning is a pretty place. Lots of great "old Hume" towns just a stone's throw from the new highway.

I've used this heaps since publication.

https://roads-waterways.transport.ns...ith-a-road.pdf

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

I recall Andrew Denton was around that way as well. Complete with red Maloo.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-06-...oans/101175258
Have to say, I’m still not hearing of too many people actually experiencing repossession - maybe they’re jumping before they’re pushed?

Seems to be happening around Legoland estates than established suburbia.

CB, Gorge, scenery......ever thought of Bungendore or even Collector on the Federal.

re Gunning, Dick Smith lived down towards Gunderoo for a time, his little airfield is beside the main rd between Gunning and Sutton.

[Yellow_Festiva]

I'm seeing a 10% correction in some markets already.

I've bookmarked a whole bunch of properties just to monitor their price movements.

Only a few are going to auction and selling. A whole bunch are being removed.

Another bunch are dropping their prices. The Domain app lets you see price changes on your saved properties and sends you a notification when it happens.

Lots of 'Motivated vendor' email notifications from agents that only several months ago didn't bother to return calls or emails...

I think I will hold off on buying till at least the 2nd or 3rd quarter of next year now rather than the first quarter.

[buggerlugs]

Down in Ballarat at the moment. Was here 6 months ago. Everything that was listed for sale had a Sold sticker on it. Now there are many houses for sale but haven't seen one with a Sold sticker on it yet..........

[b0son]

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

I think I will hold off on buying till at least the 2nd or 3rd quarter of next year now rather than the first quarter.

And this will put a floor on how far the market can ever drop here - investors. With rents soaring, that floor is probably higher than ever, with the consequence being that if rates really do go up 2.5-3%, FHBs will remain priced out. Next year will be a great time for those with lots of cash in the bank.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by b0son

And this will put a floor on how far the market can ever drop here - investors. With rents soaring, that floor is probably higher than ever, with the consequence being that if rates really do go up 2.5-3%, FHBs will remain priced out. Next year will be a great time for those with lots of cash in the bank.

Are you implying that I'm purchasing to invest? I'm not, I sold my house mid way through last year and am looking for a new place to move into.

[MITCHAY]

AMP has passed the full 0.50 on for me so I'm at 3.27% at the moment.

The way things are going it won't be long before I'm paying more than my original rate when I bought the place

I will see what I can get out of my lazy broker, but failing that I have my OG broker ready after being banned from business, his non compete is lifted now if I want to switch products.

I should be getting <3% and know I can get it elsewhere so see how this goes.

Don't pay the lazy tax, always ask for a discount

[Sprintey]

Young carpenter in family hearing quite a few stories of construction companies G-town way going belly up. Talking amongst the family, the reason seems to be the fixed cost prior contracts and inflating materials cost, or maybe some are financially a bit more precarious. Amongst the peer group in class, there are a few not getting the regular work. Young one is flat out - has a good boss who seems proactive and will fill in major work with side contracts. So he's travelling far and wide at times before a big contract begins.

It's an interesting scenario right now. A mate asked "How can we have a recession if there's full employment?" And I see the notes from the business owners here - some losing volume, some are flat tack. Best wishes to you all.

Rates too: latest seems to be the market pricing in a slowing of the rise, or maybe a reversal of the policy before Xmas (ie, you raised it a little bit, but then everything nearly broke)... Some reckon the supply chain inflation will abate, some reckon this is going to be like the 70s. The only thing we have to fear is that Disco will reappear.

And Yellow Festiva - that bedsit/1brm etc pricing in Sydney was really interesting. I assume that would simply be a search on the RE websites, choose 'cheapest first' and maybe dwelling type, then these come in? Will try for our town.