Vfacts March 2011

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by russellw

The second set of graphical data is also uploaded now.

Cheers
Russ

The one thing that does stand out with the numbers (especially over the last 3 months), is the almost insignificant numbers of LPG vehicles (passenger and commercials) being sold.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by dimka100

How much was the new FG XR6? The base XR6 models cost about 30 – 32K as far as I understand.

I think the resale value of the FG has totally plummeted considering the discounts Ford is offering on these cars. Which makes me wonder if I will buy another Falcon again after I lose a very large chunk of money from the first year of ownership :(

You will always pay more being an 'early adopter'. No matter the car / make.

The first six months FG were $42k driveaway. January 2010 they were $36,990 driveaway. Until this month, that price hasn't changed. The advertised deals Ford are offering are $35,990 driveaway for 2010 models. Probably a little better for fleet.

Not buying in that first six months of a major revamp and holding onto your car longer ie 4-5years negates much of that initial depreciation. Over 10 years, you'll only turn over 2 cars compared to 3 and burn probably half the amount. Depends if you 'must have' right now.

Again, IMO cheap finance helps resale and sales better than stripped prices.

[phillyc]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

The one thing that does stand out with the numbers (especially over the last 3 months), is the almost insignificant numbers of LPG vehicles (passenger and commercials) being sold.

LPG Q1/2010 771 LCV, 1467 Passenger, 2238 Total
LPG Q1/2011 449 LCV, 373 Passenger, 822 Total

I don't know anyone apart from Ford and GMHolden who do LPG. ASSUMING, the difference of 1416 sales is most probably those lost by Ford with no E-Gas available. EcoLPi cannot come soon enough.

[XR Martin]

Toyota offer factory dealer fit LPG on the Hiace, not sure if its counted though.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by phillyc

LPG Q1/2010 771 LCV, 1467 Passenger, 2238 Total
LPG Q1/2011 449 LCV, 373 Passenger, 822 Total

I don't know anyone apart from Ford and GMHolden who do LPG. ASSUMING, the difference of 1416 sales is most probably those lost by Ford with no E-Gas available. EcoLPi cannot come soon enough.

But when Ford stopped them, people didnt jump over to the commodore version to get an LPG. So raises the question, when Ford come back on line with them, will the sales jump back up to around the 2238 for the Quarter, or will the manufacturers just split the 822 sales.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

But when Ford stopped them, people didnt jump over to the commodore version to get an LPG. So raises the question, when Ford come back on line with them, will the sales jump back up to around the 2238 for the Quarter, or will the manufacturers just split the 822 sales.

Lets hope these people are still waiting for Ford to come back with one!!

[russellw]

.. and finally our first quarter review of the segmentation is now uploaded.

Cheers
Russ

[jpd80]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

But when Ford stopped them, people didnt jump over to the commodore version to get an LPG. So raises the question, when Ford come back on line with them, will the sales jump back up to around the 2238 for the Quarter, or will the manufacturers just split the 822 sales.

I'm beginning to wonder how solid the new vehicle LPG market really is, could it be that Ford
was only picking up sales on sedan /Ute and SW because they were offering discounts to fleets?
We will know soon enough but historical data says that the bulk of LPG vehicles comes from those
aftermarket installations and mostly when the government were offering previous subsidies to convert....

Fleets who are wanting lowering their CO2 foot print will be choosing diesel or Ecoboost over LPG,
it's the amount of fuel burned that governs the CO2 out put and if we are to have a Carbon tax,
this could change the rules for fleets and push them towards low numbers instead of lower running costs

Ecoboost I-4 with 8 l/100km might be Ford's little contingency plan if EcoLPI doesn't
start increasing interest in fleet and private sales...this is going to get interesting....

[Polyal]

As good as the I4 might or might not be, its got a huge stigma to hurdle in the fact that that many fleets IMO will be waiting a while to see how it fairs in the real world...LPG is good enough to proven even in its previous variation.

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Polyal

As good as the I4 might or might not be, its got a huge stigma to hurdle in the fact that that many fleets IMO will be waiting a while to see how it fairs in the real world...LPG is good enough to proven even in its previous variation.

And you dont think there is a stimga with LPG? LPS has little to no hope with the private sector if you ask me.

[winovin]

Russ,

Thanks for posting the summary. Is there an FAQ on this, or forum? I have a few questions around why some vehicles of the same platform and size have different classifications:

e.g.
1. VW Polo - Light / Audi A1 - Small
2. Mitsubishi Outlander - Compact / Peugeot 4007 - Medium
3. Mini Cooper - Small, yet much smaller physically than cars in Light category - e.g. VW Polo, Ford Fiesta

Thanks again for a great analysis.

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I'm beginning to wonder how solid the new vehicle LPG market really is, could it be that Ford
was only picking up sales on sedan /Ute and SW because they were offering discounts to fleets?
We will know soon enough but historical data says that the bulk of LPG vehicles comes from those
aftermarket installations and mostly when the government were offering previous subsidies to convert....

Fleets who are wanting lowering their CO2 foot print will be choosing diesel or Ecoboost over LPG,
it's the amount of fuel burned that governs the CO2 out put and if we are to have a Carbon tax,
this could change the rules for fleets and push them towards low numbers instead of lower running costs

Ecoboost I-4 with 8 l/100km might be Ford's little contingency plan if EcoLPI doesn't
start increasing interest in fleet and private sales...this is going to get interesting....

I wonder if Ford has lost as many sales as they are letting on by being without a LPG version at the moment. I have a feeling most LPG Falcon buyers were going to buy a Falcon anyway, they simply chose the lowest running-cost powertrain available at the time. With LPG not available these buyers have simply gone back to petrol in the meantime.


Case in point, local Telstra depot has started getting petrol Falcon utes to replace egas LPG...no lost sales there.


The opportunity EcoLPI has is to bring people in to consider a new Falcon who may not have considered a Falcon before. Totally opposite to eGas which was optioned by people who were probably going to buy a Falcon anyway. Also EcoLPI will give people of exisiting LPG Falcons a reason to update to a new model, somthing eGas may have a had a hard time doing.

I really hope Ford push the LPG as a great tow vehicle to the huge amount of baby boomers who will retire over the coming years and buy a caravan. EcoLPI Falcon would be an ideal tow vehicle.

I also think some of the local manufactures who offer LPG vehicles and the LPG aftermarket industry should join forces and start promoting LPG more effectively. I feel Ford is by itself in having to sell the technology, there needs to be a more sustained and considered approach in selling LPG.

Diesel has been effectively sold as there is a variety of quality manufacturers who shout from the rooftops the benefits of diesel. I would love to see this kind of effort put into LPG.

[whales]

So what is everybody reasoning for Commodore sales! A few months ago, it was they are losing on every sale now Holden post 100 odd million dollar profit which is a 200 odd million dollar turn around. Looks like they are what the people want and are willing to pay for them.
On the other hand Falcon sales are in free fall. Whats going on with Ford?

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by jpd80

I'm beginning to wonder how solid the new vehicle LPG market really is, could it be that Ford
was only picking up sales on sedan /Ute and SW because they were offering discounts to fleets?
We will know soon enough but historical data says that the bulk of LPG vehicles comes from those
aftermarket installations and mostly when the government were offering previous subsidies to convert....

LPG (the fuel) sales have actually declined since the introduction of the Government rebate and have actually followed a similar trend to the large car market going by some of the data/tables Russell has posted recently.

Originally Posted by Brazen

I really hope Ford push the LPG as a great tow vehicle to the huge amount of baby boomers who will retire over the coming years and buy a caravan. EcoLPI Falcon would be an ideal tow vehicle.

To my way of thinking, if I was to buy a caravn and go travelling, I would want a wagon style vehicle to tow the van so that I could fit as much crud in the boot as possible and have easier access to boot. I don't think I would consider a sedan to do this job.

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by naddis01

To my way of thinking, if I was to buy a caravn and go travelling, I would want a wagon style vehicle to tow the van so that I could fit as much crud in the boot as possible and have easier access to boot. I don't think I would consider a sedan to do this job.

Plus where does the spare wheel go in the EcoLPI sedan for someone towing....? Its a real shame that a wagon isnt available for this new LPG system as I reckon it's sales would have benefitted the most.

[Road_Warrior]

Originally Posted by whales

So what is everybody reasoning for Commodore sales! A few months ago, it was they are losing on every sale now Holden post 100 odd million dollar profit which is a 200 odd million dollar turn around. Looks like they are what the people want and are willing to pay for them.
On the other hand Falcon sales are in free fall. Whats going on with Ford?

Hmm. VFacts data is generated from new vehicle registrations, not sales isn't it??

[In Focus]

Originally Posted by russellw

.. and finally our first quarter review of the segmentation is now uploaded.

Cheers
Russ

What I find interesting in your analysis is in the light car segment. By far the most well reviewed cars are the Fiesta and, particularly, the Polo. The Fiesta is selling well, but the Polo hardly rates. Yet both are being beaten by the Yaris and Mazda 2. The only reason I can think of is that the buyers are people who are in the market for what everyone else has, i.e. Corolla and Mazda 3, but don't want to go that "big" (if you could call them big).

It also proves that people will buy what they want, whatever the car reviewers say.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Hmm. VFacts data is generated from new vehicle registrations, not sales isn't it??

you can make a profit from rego now??

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Brazen

I wonder if Ford has lost as many sales as they are letting on by being without a LPG version at the moment. I have a feeling most LPG Falcon buyers were going to buy a Falcon anyway,

just like most commodore hatch buyers would've bought a sedan if the hatch wasn't available.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by burnz

you can make a profit from rego now??

Yes but not enough which is why they have speed cameras....

[Brazen]

Originally Posted by prydey

just like most commodore hatch buyers would've bought a sedan if the hatch wasn't available.

Yep hence why the 5 year old Commodore is the biggest selling car in the country, whilst Falcon has dropped out of the top 10...

The dated Commodore is magically immune from the decimation of the large car market, nothing to do with offerring a wagon bodystyle that people want... yep yep.

Go tell that to the sedan-only Aurion, Falcon and 380 (oops that one is dead already).

[Polyal]

Speaking of Aurion how is that going? It cant be fairing well either.

[naddis01]

Originally Posted by prydey

just like most commodore hatch buyers would've bought a sedan if the hatch wasn't available.

Can you show me the data to back this theory up? How do you know that Commodore sales wouldn't be closer to 3000/month instead of the 4000 it is doing now?

[Joe5619]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Yep hence why the 5 year old Commodore is the biggest selling car in the country, whilst Falcon has dropped out of the top 10...

Actually the Madza 3 is the best selling car in this country in 2011, Commodore is number 2!! The media seems to have ignored this one..

Facts are here

http://www.fordforums.com.au/vbporta...article&id=995

[russellw]

The Aurion is pretty much a bit player these days it has managed to average about 700 sales a month so far this year and is down 21% in volume over 2009.

Cheers
Russ

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Yep hence why the 5 year old Commodore is the biggest selling car in the country, whilst Falcon has dropped out of the top 10...
The dated Commodore is magically immune from the decimation of the large car market, nothing to do with offerring a wagon bodystyle that people want... yep yep.
Go tell that to the sedan-only Aurion, Falcon and 380 (oops that one is dead already).

I wouldnt say the commodore was "immune". From memory 33% of commodore sales are low end omega's and only roughly 1000 commodores are going through the dealer network each month (true private sales). It has become the 5 year commodore for the sheer reason that its not a money making item.

Anyhow, everyone knows the camry is the biggest selling car in australia, its just that they dont register them here, before they send them overseas.

[dimka100]

The thing I find ridicules with Ford and Holden is their RRP prices. They are so over inflated over what 99% of the people actually pay for these vehicles.

I think this is definitely turning many private buyers away. People simply think the car is way overpriced since they know fleets are paying a lot less for them, the resale value is shocking – but that is solely because it’s based on RRP and not the actual price 99% of the people pay, the dealers themselves do not negotiate in an easy form such that any Joe who walks into a dealership can get the real price of a Falcon rather than the overinflated RRP …

I got my Euro 4 XR6 in 2010, it was brand new stock from a dealer in Victoria. I have paid 31K and I have no fleet or business discounts or anything like that. Basically the dealer wanted them sold and that’s the price he advertised on carsales, the choice of colour was limited but I got what I wanted anyways.

Seriously Ford why advertise the car for 42K RRP when Fleets get them for 30K ??? why not advertise them at 35K from launch, this will leave enough room for dealers to negotiate while pricing your product far more realistically to what its worth. The resale value would also be seen as more reasonable as per this example:

My XR6 would be worth about 25K on the second hand market now, so after one year of ownership the depreciation was about 20% from the actual purchase price, rather than the shocking depreciation of 40% if we calculated based on the RRP price …

Originally Posted by phillyc

You will always pay more being an 'early adopter'. No matter the car / make.

The first six months FG were $42k driveaway. January 2010 they were $36,990 driveaway. Until this month, that price hasn't changed. The advertised deals Ford are offering are $35,990 driveaway for 2010 models. Probably a little better for fleet.

Not buying in that first six months of a major revamp and holding onto your car longer ie 4-5years negates much of that initial depreciation. Over 10 years, you'll only turn over 2 cars compared to 3 and burn probably half the amount. Depends if you 'must have' right now.

Again, IMO cheap finance helps resale and sales better than stripped prices.

[Buntz]

Originally Posted by russellw

The Aurion is pretty much a bit player these days it has managed to average about 700 sales a month so far this year and is down 21% in volume over 2009.

Cheers
Russ

THat's because the bland morons you wouldn't have over for dinner... don't really need a powerful V6 through the front wheels, which needs them swapped over every 10000km's.

Originally Posted by dimka100

The thing I find ridicules with Ford and Holden is their RRP prices. They are so over inflated over what 99% of the people actually pay for these vehicles.

I think this is definitely turning many private buyers away. People simply think the car is way overpriced since they know fleets are paying a lot less for them, the resale value is shocking – but that is solely because it’s based on RRP and not the actual price 99% of the people pay, the dealers themselves do not negotiate in an easy form such that any Joe who walks into a dealership can get the real price of a Falcon rather than the overinflated RRP …

I got my Euro 4 XR6 in 2010, it was brand new stock from a dealer in Victoria. I have paid 31K and I have no fleet or business discounts or anything like that. Basically the dealer wanted them sold and that’s the price he advertised on carsales, the choice of colour was limited but I got what I wanted anyways.

Seriously Ford why advertise the car for 42K RRP when Fleets get them for 30K ??? why not advertise them at 35K from launch, this will leave enough room for dealers to negotiate while pricing your product far more realistically to what its worth. The resale value would also be seen as more reasonable as per this example:

My XR6 would be worth about 25K on the second hand market now, so after one year of ownership the depreciation was about 20% from the actual purchase price, rather than the shocking depreciation of 40% if we calculated based on the RRP price …

It's more our market then anything. The second hand market is really competitive. People are buying more second hand, then they used to.

Why don't you scope out an early BMW 3, 5 or 7 series... and see how much they depreciate from new.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by naddis01

Can you show me the data to back this theory up? How do you know that Commodore sales wouldn't be closer to 3000/month instead of the 4000 it is doing now?

i was merely having a dig at brazen, because he used this line of argument with the falcon in his post, and i knew he didn't agree with it when referring to commo hatch. can't have it both ways.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Brazen

Yep hence why the 5 year old Commodore is the biggest selling car in the country, whilst Falcon has dropped out of the top 10...

The dated Commodore is magically immune from the decimation of the large car market, nothing to do with offerring a wagon bodystyle that people want... yep yep.

Go tell that to the sedan-only Aurion, Falcon and 380 (oops that one is dead already).

The Territory is fords wagon. It originally was supposed to replace the Falcon wagon in 2004, but it didn't cop the big sales drop off that Ford were expecting.

But anyway i'm sick of Ford using the same excuse time after time that no one wants large cars. Holden manage to sell more than double what Ford does so just come out and admit your sales and marketing people are fricking useless and clean out all the dead wood ffs.