Australia housing bubble

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

How far up are term deposit interest rates likely to go? It’s been a quantum shift in twelve months, can get 3,25% on $5K or more without trying - compared to barely 0,25% a year back.

All my cash is in 'at call' style accounts - as of the most recent rate rise I'm averaging roughly 2.5% pa.

Won't fix anything as I will eventually look at buying another place but will stick to my guns and wait till Jan or Feb of next year.

There are still clowns expecting top dollar for their places and have not factored in the current market situation.

I think a few more rate rises will fix that mentality for them.

I'm in the unique position where I'm semi-retired and relying on interest from my savings as well as looking to buy a house to live in and rising interest rates are helping my situation on both accounts.

[zilo]

Funny how quickly the ABC had the sookey stories about the poor people who are being hammered by that nasty RBA putting up the rates by a thumping 0.5%....

What's funnier is that the production team would have been assembling the story many days before the rate increase was announced.

And it's always the same plot...single mum...deposit based on grants from govt...big home with theatre room....blah blah

Then there's the poor darling daughter with the teddy bear who thought she would get her own room...

Where's the father for the other income...?

[MITCHAY]

First time my rate has been higher than when I got the loan which was 3.79 i think. 4.27 from next week as expected. I've been tipping more money in extra repayments each rate rise.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

How far up are term deposit interest rates likely to go? It’s been a quantum shift in twelve months, can get 3,25% on $5K or more without trying - compared to barely 0,25% a year back.

Another small bump has been added to term deposit rates the last week or so. My inner gambler wonders whether to lock it in, hold out for another rise, split deposits into 12/24 month tranches…

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Another small bump has been added to term deposit rates the last week or so. My inner gambler wonders whether to lock it in, hold out for another rise, split deposits into 12/24 month tranches…

A betting man would say there are another couple of rate rises to come....maybe smaller ones.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

A betting man would say there are another couple of rate rises to come....maybe smaller ones.

Yep, I wouldn't be locking in anything till December this year. If the guesstimates are correct we still have another 1.5-2% worth of increases to go before things start to "normalise".

Sent from my SM-G973F using Tapatalk

[Citroënbender]

Punter behaviour for open houses / auctions around here seems to be shifting. Much smaller crowds on the weekend showings, a few places passed in are still trying to fox by not stating a price while others are saying “offers around…”. The impression is a ten percent difference between asking prices now and auction results mid last year.

[hackney]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Punter behaviour for open houses / auctions around here seems to be shifting. Much smaller crowds on the weekend showings, a few places passed in are still trying to fox by not stating a price while others are saying “offers around…”. The impression is a ten percent difference between asking prices now and auction results mid last year.

A lot are falling over.Some are sold pre Auction, & clearances are down. I have never liked them, but that is only my personal op.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Got a notification from realestate.com app that the auction clearance rate has dropped to 51% or something similar.

It was broken down further but I was shocked at the amount that were passed in.

In a bit over 2 weeks will have another RBA decision. I'm thinking it will be another .5% seeing as inflation is still up there.

If we think our situation is bad consider these guys:

The country where interest rates are almost 70 per cent - and inflation already is
The cost of living crunch is hitting us hard in Australia - but a look at what’s happening overseas shines a different light on our current struggles.

Argentina’s central bank raised its benchmark interest rate by 950 basis points on Thursday as the country struggles to keep a lid on spiralling inflation that rose to a 20-year high of 71 per cent, according to new data.

The central bank raised the benchmark rate for the 28-day term to 69.5 per cent from 60 per cent, a rate the bank set just two weeks ago when it hiked the rate by 800 basis points and the government shuffled its cabinet to install a new economy “superminister.”

New inflation data on Thursday underscored the urgency driving economic policy: Prices rose 7.4 per cent in July, above expectations and pushing annual inflation to a 20-year high of 71 per cent. The month saw the resignation of President Alberto Fernandez’s long time finance minister, followed by the ouster of his replacement.

https://7news.com.au/news/the-countr...y-is-c-7862928

[John 13]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Punter behaviour for open houses / auctions around here seems to be shifting. Much smaller crowds on the weekend showings, a few places passed in are still trying to fox by not stating a price while others are saying “offers around…”. The impression is a ten percent difference between asking prices now and auction results mid last year.

And what about the construction industry ! See ABC news today "Construction Firms are Collapsing ----". Looks like the 'John Howard Housing led recovery' intervention mark II may be remembered as the Housing led depression.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by John 13

And what about the construction industry ! See ABC news today "Construction Firms are Collapsing ----". Looks like the 'John Howard Housing led recovery' intervention mark II may be remembered as the Housing led depression.

No surprise considering the timber framed/brick veneer crap they build these days.

[FTE217]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

No surprise considering the timber framed/brick veneer crap they build these days.

and despite the building standards dropping due to cheaper product/materials used nowadays whats Howards Housing recovery of way back then got to do with current massive material price rise's etcetc since covid turned the world upside down.
What I see those Building companies that are falling put themselves into heaps of debt never thinking of those rainy days come calling being money was so easy to get.......
Borrow more than your incomings.
Plus the countless shonks in the building game is a mixer for these outcomes.
More sympathy should be going to the poor clients who are left up a creek without a paddle whilst the Building company CEO avoids refunding or even be held accountable.
Sure pre covid and during covid quotes have blown out x $$$$$$'s but it doesn't excuse negligence.

[roKWiz]

Hey, boss the frames not long enough, don't worry just nail gun an extra bit on the end. The crap I've seen lately.
Was talking to a termite inspector guy checking the "traps" around a managed property and he reckons new house builds from the last 15 years or so are going to be in for some pain due to the buggers eating the framing from inside out. I said to him, 'but isn't that supposed to be treated pine" he just laughed and said what's that going to stop.
He's doing a lot of insurance work atm and inspections for bank finance approvals. The cheapest builds will suffer the most.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Hey, boss the frames not long enough, don't worry just nail gun an extra bit on the end. The crap I've seen lately.
Was talking to a termite inspector guy checking the "traps" around a managed property and he reckons new house builds from the last 15 years or so are going to be in for some pain due to the buggers eating the framing from inside out. I said to him, 'but isn't that supposed to be treated pine" he just laughed and said what's that going to stop.
He's doing a lot of insurance work atm and inspections for bank finance approvals. The cheapest builds will suffer the most.

What do you mean "eating the framing from inside out".

Termites need to gain access to timber, using their mud runs, which means they attack from outside of timber in. Or do you mean to say that there is already termites inside the treated pine that was used in the build.

As an aside, in a living room renovation I did 1 year ago I had to remove 1 internal wall built in 1984, and had to pull off plaster off internal stud walls built in 1984.

Copious amounts of hard timber used- no pine. And in the old section of the house built in 1955, the entire roof is hard timber.

There was a lot of hard wood left over, and I had a huge uhm barbecue with relatives over. Very enjoyable burning 67 year old hardwood and drinking beer and wine looking over lake at night- with no smoke as such.

[FTE217]

asagaai, yep re the good ol hard wood beams used of yesteryer.
Going through a small reno last month and ongoing at home, wife wanted higher ceilings so we had to knock off some of the classic timber as you mentioned.
I've kept it aside for it wasn't going in the skip bin - too good to throw, thinking about yep will be firewood but I probably will find something else to do with it tbh for its unreal decent timber.

Re the termites, I have heard depending how good the treated pine is ? for been known they have eaten through some, maybe it wasn't treated enough OR they have become immune like us who had covid19 shots lol.......

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by asagaai

What do you mean "eating the framing from inside out".

Termites need to gain access to timber, using their mud runs, which means they attack from outside of timber in. Or do you mean to say that there is already termites inside the treated pine that was used in the build.

I believe that termite's only eat the inside as they are sensitive to light .... that's how Didgeridoo's are made.

[xkxlxm]

11 or 12 years ago we had termites. Luckily it was a 1 on a scale of 10. They had got into a piece of skirting board in the laundry. My partner knocked it when she was vacuuming and it crumbled ... The laundry is on a slab at the back of the 1960s brick veneer, which is on concrete stumps. They had come up the inside of what use to be the outside bricks at the back of the original house, through a vent and straight into the end of the skirting board. They had also travelled up a stump (inside their mud tunnel) and into a bearer but that was it. Very lucky.

I got under the house in that spot and lifted a bit of hardwood batten: that was the first time I had ever seen a termite; white thing; not a nice thing to see. We got it inspected/treated but before the treatment I cleaned out almost the whole underside of the house - timber crap, roof tile pieces, brick pieces etc that the builders had just dropped there before the floorboards went on. Access got fairly tight on one side and I didn't get every single thing out. I thought it would take a couple of days but it must have taken me a whole week at least, dragging a plastic baby bath under there, filling it up, dragging it out repeat - repeat - repeat ........

[ford71V8]

I've seen 2.5mm2 3-core cable eaten through.
Termites were everywhere, but left the staircase and went for the power.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

No surprise considering the timber framed/brick veneer crap they build these days.

If you want to see some Quality Workmanship..?? Have Look Here..LOL

https://www.facebook.com/tradiemayhem

[Citroënbender]

Here’s a fruiting body (fungal growth) on seven months old LOSP treated MGP10 structural pine.

While this is fully exposed, it’s not that different a situation to (say) an eaves leak or persistent gutter overflow. The wood is, frankly, rubbish. LOSP treated timber is seen as a part of termite resistance strategy where this is required by the BCA.

There should be more recycling of hardwood from demolition works, but the vain pride of two major ethnic groups buying into the housing boom precludes used materials, and the effort to assay, process, sell is seen as unviable. I don’t think it is, but that’s the attitude.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by asagaai

What do you mean "eating the framing from inside out".
.

Don't think I mentioned Hardwood or older houses made from it but it's not immune either.
Cheap modern brick veneer houses are built with a treated pinewood timber frame usually erected first straight onto the concrete slab.
This framing supports the roofing trusses and full weight of the completed roofing structure. The usual practice then is lay single skin brick walling around the outside of it with the alleged termite barrier material covered in between.
This brickwork is non load bearing.

Termites, once they find away to access timber, will set up camp there gradually turning solid timber into a soft pulp. The house therefore is eaten from the inside framing which leads to weak timber supporting the weight of the roof.
Hence the house being eaten from inside out.
Termites don't have to try hard to gain access either as they can be brought in by the owners in furniture, other building timbers and firewood.
Termites to the homes are like shipsworm (teredo) to wooden boats they will eat a hollow core right through timber and move on to the next piece.

Down our way its even a bigger problem brought on by the Goldrush era with introduced Peppercorn trees which support termites well.
Several councils locally here have clauses stating steel framed houses are a preferred option due to this very problem (that along with bushfire building codes) but many building companies do not want to have the additional cost (up front) of a steel frame.

In my opinion an older house built with a hardwood frame on piers (my fav) or double brick construction (and I see plenty of them) is best but no one builds house like this now.

ps one you cut a piece of treated pine, the cut end is no longer treated and this is what many cheap bulding companies do.

[Citroënbender]

ps one you cut a piece of treated pine, the cut end is no longer treated and this is what many cheap bulding companies do.

I don’t know when I last saw this practice actually being followed!

[xkxlxm]

One sign of termites to watch for: alates, winged termites. At least in Melbourne, the first one or two hot days in spring - generally this has been in late October - alates fly out of termite nests and it seems that their job is to start new nests elsewhere.

Several years ago there were some half wine barrels in the back yard, on pavers. They had small citrus plants in them. One evening, about 6:45 or 7:00, near dusk, when I was in the back veranda I saw insects coming out of the half wine barrels. For some silly reason I made no connection with the small termite problem we had had two or three years before. It happened again same time the next year. They were pouring out and flying off. The penny dropped for me this time. I went out and had a look at the barrels. Termites had mostly eaten the timber out. We got the termite people back, but I wondered if they had missed inspecting the barrels the previous year on their annual inspection. I can't remember if the barrels were there when the termite problem (in the skirting board and bearer) started.

These light brown coloured insects have four wings and they just seem to float about, drifting away. If you see them coming out of the ground or anywhere else, there might be a termite nest there somewhere.

I must have said something to one of the neighbours about alates and they phoned me once. I went and had a look inside their house. One of the unused bedrooms had lots of dead alates on the carpet, around the skirting boards. I think they were lucky and had caught the problem before it got worse.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by xkxlxm

One sign of termites to watch for: alates, winged termites. At least in Melbourne, the first one or two hot days in spring - generally this has been in late October - alates fly out of termite nests and it seems that their job is to start new nests elsewhere.

Several years ago there were some half wine barrels in the back yard, on pavers. They had small citrus plants in them. One evening, about 6:45 or 7:00, near dusk, when I was in the back veranda I saw insects coming out of the half wine barrels. For some silly reason I made no connection with the small termite problem we had had two or three years before. It happened again same time the next year. They were pouring out and flying off. The penny dropped for me this time. I went out and had a look at the barrels. Termites had mostly eaten the timber out. We got the termite people back, but I wondered if they had missed inspecting the barrels the previous year on their annual inspection. I can't remember if the barrels were there when the termite problem (in the skirting board and bearer) started.

These light brown coloured insects have four wings and they just seem to float about, drifting away. If you see them coming out of the ground or anywhere else, there might be a termite nest there somewhere.

I must have said something to one of the neighbours about alates and they phoned me once. I went and had a look inside their house. One of the unused bedrooms had lots of dead alates on the carpet, around the skirting boards. I think they were lucky and had caught the problem before it got worse.

Those things love Peppercorn trees.

[b0son]

It makes you wonder why they havent invented termite-proof weep holes yet.

[asagaai]

I hate termites. When I built my first house on a steep block, it was built on 4 levels running up a hill. Builder stuffed up cut and set it 800 in too deep, which meant I had larger retaining walls needed and defeated the whole purpose of multi levels running up hill.

I had no money, and built retaining walls using railway sleepers. 20 years and termites got into them. About 4.5 years ago, I had to sell the house, and again had no money and had to rip out and rebuild the retaining wall on lower level. As money was tight I did all the work myself.

Here is the earth cut and steel ready for footing pour and first block to be placed into concrete set wet.

Here is long treated pine I replaced supporting deck, replaced due to rot, coated in tar to increase protection, and extended into footing of retaining wall to prevent surcharge of load onto retaining wall

Finished retaining wall- termite proof

I absolutely detest termites- put me through hell.

[roKWiz]

Here's a good example of mixing treated pine and non treated pine in the roofing, easy to see in a new build spotted today. At least they have their pointless termite barrier around.

[buggerlugs]

New Zealand prices dropped 15%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-...fall/101353350

[zilo]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

New Zealand prices dropped 15%
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2022-08-...fall/101353350

RBA meeting next on 6th September....should be interesting.

[hackney]

I would say 50 basis points that rate is going to rise by.We have just sold our home, quite lucky really.We got pretty close to what we were asking.Our agent said that enquires have all but dried up, this is also coming from another agent I know.The market has tanked, auctions are off the boil & clearance rates have dropped.We our now in the ‘box seat’ in as far as purchasing a property(& do have our eye on one) will more than likely make a pre auction offer, vendors are keen to move & seem pretty amicable to our terms as it benefits both parties.