Australia housing bubble

[buggerlugs]

Talking the housing up already. Saying if rates don't go above 4% there will be another boom. More dribble....

[Polyal]

The problem seems to be supply? Also, and I didnt even think of this until I heard it on the radio.

With the rise of air'bnb etc there must be 1000's of houses out of the normal rental market for short term stays. Fair enough for the owners but not great for the market.

Unfortunately, as much as I want to see it fall further the low unemployment rate isnt lining up with the interest rate rises so it seems we need higher rates to really take any meaningful effect.

[Yellow_Festiva]

Went out over the weekend to have a look around. Nothing much has changed...

Looked at a '4br / 2bath / 4 car garage' place - and advertised as such.

The bottom 2 garages and rear storage room and laundry has been converted into a 2br unit. The other side of the bottom level has been converted into a 1br unit.

The upper level has had extensive modifications - a very big balcony (perhaps 4x12m) has been tacked onto the back of the upper level, enclosed and a professional kitchen with stone benchtops has been installed and plumbed.

The laundry seems to be a communal affair, with a very large washer and dryer sitting on the concrete slab outside under the rear balcony with waste water entering a hole in the concrete via fixed PVC pipes.

Before inspection I questioned myself as to why the floorplan was not available, now I know why.

It's obvious that the person that did the work spent considerable coin ($120k?) and for most parts the additions were well done.... but now we have a 7br / 3 kitchen / 4 bathroom and NO garage property that is not council approved and would suit a slumlord more than a family...

"But it would make a GREAT INVESTMENT" was the reply from the agent when I questioned the modifications...

It gets worse - after the inspection the Asian owners followed me to the car and tried to engage in conversation with my partner (also Asian) who I left in the car as she was watching my 2 kids asleep in the back.. My Vietnamese lip reading skills are a little rusty but she seemed to be mouthing 'You like? You like?'.

Been listed for a week and already dropped 50K....

In another open house we were followed around by a mother and daughter duo that were passing comments to each other in Arabic, probably questioning my somewhat blended family... but after 2 rooms I had had enough and promptly left, helped a little by the apparent use of MDF skirting as a mirror frame in the bathroom that had since puffed out to twice the thickness and leeched brown stains down the wall to the sink...

Just wasted time... I'm finding so many places that have been falsely advertised like this and there is no real regulation of the RE advertising industry other than loose laws on price baiting.

I wish I had kept more of these types of screen shots... a bit of a 'woopsy' by the agent:



What was the rule again? 20%?

Missed out on 2 properties that were 'certainly going to auction' only for them to pop up in my feed as sold prior for less than I would have paid...

Will go out again today to a few open houses... I need a laugh.

[T3rminator]

Apparently inflation didn't rise as much as anticipated last month. Think fuel price might have had something to do with it. Housing still a problem.

Does inflation take into account all these black friday sales?

[Citroënbender]

Terminology question:

…a registered interest in land such as a lease or mortgage is affected

In the context of a NSW mortgage, does this mean only the mortgagor, or also the mortgagee?

[zilo]

I like this guy Martin North, he is well respected for providing accurate analysis based on real world data.

For your viewing pleasure here are some videos based on particular locations, showing the price falls by posting the initial asking prices, the dates and the current prices as well as days on the market.

Looks like ACT is in for a shake up...



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and

[Citroënbender]

I have just discovered something that offends me.

An adjacent subdivision has had its closest dwelling/title appended with my street number and an “A” in the NSW Land Registry.

I have never received any communication on this matter, and am frankly gobsmacked that someone thought this was OK to register?! I’ll be seeking urgent advice on whether the titling address can be amended. I understand the numerical conventions applied however they are not - as I read it - legally binding.

[Syndrome]

I can sense 2023 will be an "interesting" year as the amount of RE agents contacting me has increased recently. When the market is buoyant I don't hear from them as business is good so they don't need to chase customers.

[MITCHAY]

Well inflation figures today show it is up. Who is surprised by that? It was a given for the lead up to xmas!

Another rise coming for sure. Tips are 0.25 for Feb and March and then hopefully that's where it ends but who the **** knows.

Originally Posted by Syndrome

I can sense 2023 will be an "interesting" year as the amount of RE agents contacting me has increased recently. When the market is buoyant I don't hear from them as business is good so they don't need to chase customers.

I had another one the other day when I specifically told him to take me off. Even lists I know I have unsubscribed from, I magically am still on. The sellers agent for my place is not even a RE any more he's a ****en mortgage broker

I just said not interested in buying or selling. Next time I will just hang up cold and if they give me lip I will tell I already told you to **** off!

[Citroënbender]

Still a lot of building jobs “parked” in my area. I think they’re waiting for the return of cheap Chinese mainland labour. They’re virtually like slaves.

The Lebanese job behind me is 50% sold, they had no property stylists or fancy gimmicks and have grossed $1,9M on a sale of half the site they bought for $1,95M total. Add $400K to build and that’s going to net nearly one and a half million in rough profit in 20 months total duration when the second house is sold. As I say, money for jam.

My win is smaller, term deposit interest is up and it covers the odd few regos.

[zilo]

I keep getting offers to buy me out, was 5 times what I paid, now up to 8 times what i paid 9 years ago.

It's tempting to sell and interest rates don't seem to bother certain purchasers.

Just for the record the declared CPI for the period January 2022 to December 2022 is

7.8%.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by zilo

I keep getting offers to buy me out, was 5 times what I paid, now up to 8 times what i paid 9 years ago.

It's tempting to sell and interest rates don't seem to bother certain purchasers.

Just for the record the declared CPI for the period January 2022 to December 2022 is

7.8%.

While the temptation is there to sell, unless you are downgrading, what could you buy to replace it comparitively?

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by The article below

Up to one in eight Aussies lied on their home loan applications to borrow more

https://www.9news.com.au/national/th...a-62975f49d553
Who’da thunk it?

[Poetic Justice]

One in eight?

Genuinely thought it would be far worse than that and probably is.

[Citroënbender]

That 12,5% are the liars who were honest about lying.

[T3rminator]

How many low doc loans got dished out during the "boom"?

What percentage of the "liar loans" were low doc loans?

On a traditional loan, from a traditional bank, they go through all your records - bank statements to see spending habits, proof of income statements etc. Although you could probably still get away with little "non full truths".

[blueoval]

I can foresee a lot of mortgagee sales happening in the coming months from the fraudulent loan docs especially if interest rates continue to increase the way they are.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by blueoval

I can foresee a lot of mortgagee sales happening in the coming months from the fraudulent loan docs especially if interest rates continue to increase the way they are.

Excess stock will be absorbed by overseas people coming back. In particular, am hearing a lot of honkies, who previously held PR here but went back to HK for business, are starting to return. Cost of living has hit the stratosphere over there, they are selling up their pigeon holes, and coming back to buy the $1-$2m homes and have spare change to live comfortably.

[hayseed]

My Wife has a work Colleague Who Built a new House 2 years ago. & got a Home loan with a Low Honeymoon Introductory Rate...!!

The Honeymoon Finished a couple of Weeks ago..LOL

Payments have gone from $850 a Fortnight to a touch over $1300 a Fortnight..
She & her Husband went and had a whinge to Westpac. To no avail..

[Citroënbender]

Nobody told them it might happen?

It’s amazing how many people are claiming mortgage stress but won’t take in a lodger or create a granny flat on the sly.

[FTE217]

Nothing new though, there will always be a % of people who live beyound their means past present future and more so never listen to wise words of wisdom having something left in the kitty just in case........
Last decade and more as T3 mentions, applying for a loan through a bank/broker they need everything of your history etc, working for yourself you may have been able to fudge a few things but as an employee how can you doctor anything.
Back in the day of having cash/folding on the side was helpful for those who didn't have a high wage but that no more now that DD/electronic banking etc is taking over.

Anyway as said there will always be those you put themselves on the edge - luck comes into it, stability was there for so so long after the GFC, stock market plunges now and then, a war but overall it was ground hog day with such low interest rates for yonks.
Covid the next reset $h it happens and the merry go round starts again.

[Poetic Justice]

Wish my mortgage was $1300 a fortnight, lol!

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by hayseed

My Wife has a work Colleague Who Built a new House 2 years ago. & got a Home loan with a Low Honeymoon Introductory Rate...!!

The Honeymoon Finished a couple of Weeks ago..LOL

Payments have gone from $850 a Fortnight to a touch over $1300 a Fortnight..
She & her Husband went and had a whinge to Westpac. To no avail..

Anybody who purchased in the last 12 to 18 months is in for a "surprise"

[GO FURTHER]

What's needed in Australia, are banks or lending institutions that can offer borrowers a 20 or 30 year fixed interest rate loan.

That would take the uncertainty out of the equation for many mortgage holders and who would no longer be held hostage to any RBA future rate increases, using the only blunt tool they have to curb inflation.

The maximum fixed interest rate loan period currently on offer in Australia is 10 years from the ANZ, RAMS, and two others.

In the USA, many borrowers are on 30-year fixed interest rate loans.

Yes, they are more expensive (currently) than variable rates... But over the course of 30 years, you may break even in the long term, especially if interest rates ever go back to the high rates we saw in the 80's and early 90's. (never say never).

In the US, you can even re-finance your 30 year fixed home loan to another loan, if interest rates drop... So you are not locked in for "life".

Australia’s mortgage market is unlike almost any other in the world, boasting one of the highest rates of variable interest loans.

Maybe more American banking institutions that offer home loans need to open up shop here.

Over 4,400 banks (not branches) in the USA versus our big 4 plus another 93 or so. (Yes, the US population is magnitudes greater than Oz, but still more banks in the US per capita if you do the sums).

Competition is good for consumers.

Would you buy a $100,000 plus car on a variable interest rate car loan?
Probably not.

Food for thought.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

What's needed in Australia, are banks or lending institutions that can offer borrowers a 20 or 30 year fixed interest rate loan.

That would take the uncertainty out of the equation for many mortgage holders and who would no longer be held hostage to any RBA future rate increases, using the only blunt tool they have to curb inflation.

The maximum fixed interest rate loan period currently on offer in Australia is 10 years from the ANZ, RAMS, and two others.

In the USA, many borrowers are on 30-year fixed interest rate loans.

Yes, they are more expensive (currently) than variable rates... But over the course of 30 years, you may break even in the long term, especially if interest rates ever go back to the high rates we saw in the 80's and early 90's. (never say never).

In the US, you can even re-finance your 30 year fixed home loan to another loan, if interest rates drop... So you are not locked in for "life".

Australia’s mortgage market is unlike almost any other in the world, boasting one of the highest rates of variable interest loans.

Maybe more American banking institutions that offer home loans need to open up shop here.

Over 4,400 banks (not branches) in the USA versus our big 4 plus another 93 or so. (Yes, the US population is magnitudes greater than Oz, but still more banks in the US per capita if you do the sums).

Competition is good for consumers.

Would you buy a $100,000 plus car on a variable interest rate car loan?
Probably not.

Food for thought.

Interesting although I am not sure Americas recent history would show they are the gold standard for economic management either.

IMO its the simple fact that housing is used as a wealth building tool in Australia, the fact that its a primary source of security for people seems to get missed.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

Would you buy a $100,000 plus car on a variable interest rate car loan?
Probably not.

Food for thought.

Thousands DO already… Their $90,000 SUV simply added to their home loan!

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Thousands DO already… Their $90,000 SUV simply added to their home loan!

It was bloody tempting a couple of years ago! Weren't dealerships themselves offering 1-2% interests on new car loans at one stage? Obviously done through an underwriter bank.

[Citroënbender]

I’m definitely feeling a “moral squeeze” on the issue of rental housing availability, it seems wrong to be surrounded by empty houses while ordinary people are getting bent over by landlords and agents.

There are five complete, empty dwellings within 100m of me; a total of 22 bedrooms.

I suspect the very recent push by China to send students back overseas, will furnish the cheap labour for building sites that are currently “parked” and may result in a few more existing dwellings changing hands.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Thousands DO already… Their $90,000 SUV simply added to their home loan!

True, a line of credit or draw down on your home loan is still one of the cheapest forms of finance you can get.

One of the reasons, I virtually paid off my mortgage but left $500 still owing on it, is so the loan remains "open", and that huge line of credit is always there for a rainy day.
The minute monthly interest on it is worth it to me to have that facility available. (Which I may never be able to get again).

It's those that put their car on their home loan, (and being a depreciating asset) over 20 years or an extended period and end up paying far more in the long term, unless they are diligent enough to repay it within a reasonable timeframe, like a normal car loan.

[Citroënbender]

…One of the reasons, I virtually paid off my mortgage but left $500 still owing on it, is so the loan remains "open", and that huge line of credit is always there for a rainy day.

My parents did this, once my father was dead it was a fair pain in the whatsit to wrap up.

To me, the overarching requirement by your mortgagee that your life (income and prospects) situation is notified to them as it changes, negates any longer term use of a facility like that - the very small but undeniable risk of a loan being called in because the lender’s terms are not - and cannot be - met, negates any sense of real security.