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24-04-2020, 06:47 PM | #2191 | |||
WT GT
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
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Quote:
Hey Russ, where’s the unlike button? Crikey Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
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24-04-2020, 06:49 PM | #2192 | |||
Rob
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Woodcroft S.A.
Posts: 21,656
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Quote:
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24-04-2020, 07:44 PM | #2193 | |||
Peter Car
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: geelong
Posts: 23,145
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Quote:
Coronavirus just isn’t lethal enough to shut down the entire country. But go on living in fear of something that really isn’t much worse than a strong flu. God forbid if we ever had an outbreak as lethal as mers or ebola here. |
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24-04-2020, 07:46 PM | #2194 | ||
Peter Car
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24-04-2020, 08:06 PM | #2195 | |||
WT GT
Join Date: Jan 2006
Location: The GSS
Posts: 17,773
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Quote:
This thing really kills people though - case in point being Sweden. It’s going to be a shocker. Given our natural sea border we can actually stamp it out completely and get back to some form of a normal life and avoid the massive European death toll. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk |
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24-04-2020, 08:26 PM | #2196 | |||
Former BTIKD
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sunny Downtown Wagga Wagga. NSW.
Posts: 53,197
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Quote:
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Dying at your job is natures way of saying that you're in the wrong line of work.
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24-04-2020, 08:44 PM | #2197 | |||
Rob
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Woodcroft S.A.
Posts: 21,656
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Quote:
Easy to look at current numbers and make assumptions as to its seriousness but it doesn't give credit to the restrictions and their effect. Easy to say Australia is a different environment and that is the main contributing factor but I'd like to see credible evidence to back that up rather than just supposition. Correlation doesn't always equal causation either.
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24-04-2020, 09:30 PM | #2198 | ||
Peter Car
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24-04-2020, 10:12 PM | #2199 | ||
BLUE OVAL INC.
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 8,674
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Reading back at the start of the thread and it only took 27 posts for someone to suggest this was nothing more than a scam, pointing to the 20k deaths from regular flu in the US as a comparison.
Well, fast forward 5 weeks and the US is at 50k deaths, yep, just like a regular flu for sure.. |
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24-04-2020, 10:26 PM | #2200 | ||||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,236
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Quote:
Quote:
Factually: even your so-called average healthy person can have quite severe symptoms and globally 24.6% of the death toll has been people with no underlying conditions and 25% of all deaths have been under 65 years of age although some of those did have underlying issues. I shouldn't have to spell it out by now but just in case there is anyone else deluded enough to share your view here are the key differences between Influenza and COVID19: 1. The median severity is much higher for COVID19 with 20% of cases being severe or critical compared to Influenza at ~1%. 2. The mortality rate is also much higher even at the current 'official' 3% estimate although the current global case mortality rate is actually over 7%. Comparably, the mortality rate for Influenza is 0.1% yet is still kills 4-500,000 people a year. If a similar number of people were infected with this virus as the flu each year (~1 billion) then we'd see somewhere between 11 and 30 million deaths even if the CMR was only 3%. Let's take that in Australian terms. About 8% of the population gets influenza (2M cases), 18,000 of which require hospitalisation and somewhere around 3,000 resulting in death. If those 2M cases were COVID19 we would see 22,500 deaths even at our very low 1.126% case mortality rate although it would likely be higher as the health system would not cope. At the global average rate of 7% that would be 140,000. 3. The infection rate (R0) is about triple that of influenza which means it spreads faster. They do share in common both the respiratory symptoms and at least part of the transmission method. But hey, let's not let the facts get in the way of a good conspiracy theory. Perhaps Uncle Trump's advice to inject disinfectant would help?
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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24-04-2020, 10:34 PM | #2201 | |||
Rob
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Woodcroft S.A.
Posts: 21,656
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Quote:
Pretty much how antibiotics work basically.
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24-04-2020, 10:49 PM | #2202 | |||
Bolt Nerd
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ojochal, Costa Rica (Pura Vida!)
Posts: 14,820
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Quote:
Yep... Herd approach DOES work!! Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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25-04-2020, 12:16 AM | #2203 | |||
3..2..1..
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Bellbird park
Posts: 7,218
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Quote:
Shh, that’s not the twist the media want you to see... Context is everything and the media is using the fact that most people are too simple to read past the headline or at best the first paragraph so make the wording suit their agenda. |
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25-04-2020, 12:33 AM | #2204 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2005
Posts: 1,848
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OK, so everyone thinks Trumps Brainstorming (BrainFarting) is crazy but he has captured why Australia has less problem with COVID than most other places.
Like Trump, I am not a doctor, I have mad ideas, and somehow that has kept my career going. Disinfectant kills Covid-19, How do we get disinfectant inside our bodies ? Alcohol is a good disinfectant. How do you get it into your blood stream ? Trump said injecting ... I prefer Single malt scotch Whiskey, or beer. SunLight shortens the "shelf life" of Covid-19 by maybe 97% (to under 2 min in the air, or on surfaces) Likely it is UV that does that. Australia 'suffers' because of the whole in the Ozone layer = UV So ... Drink at night, get sun in the day ... the Australian lifestyle kills Covid-19 (Note Covid-19 is the disease, and I should really say xxxSARS2xxx ... but like I said I am not a doctor, so I do not know that) |
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25-04-2020, 06:41 AM | #2205 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: nz
Posts: 1,850
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Yep and lately there death toll each day has been 2nd only to the USA, they are catching Italy, Spain, France quite quickly
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25-04-2020, 07:17 AM | #2206 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: nz
Posts: 1,850
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Quote:
I cant understand how oz is doing better than NZ considering youve never been in full lockdown ....you would think that less person -person contact would achieve less spread....could be some of these 1; Australians have conformed better to self isolation 2; Australias a much larger island people are spread out more 3; NZ failing to quarantine people entering the country till later on causing more spread 4;Australias a warmer climate 5; testing and reporting of statistics is not accurate (if this is the case long term results should uncover it
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25-04-2020, 08:32 AM | #2207 | |||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,236
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Quote:
Australia had 14 new cases yesterday but also 4 deaths so the CMR rises to 1.184%. NZ had 5 new cases and 1 death so the CMR also rises to 1.168%. The UK had more than 5,000 new cases and the CMR rose to 13.596%. The USA surpassed 50,000 deaths and the CMR rose to 5.667%. In terms of cases per 100k pax, Australia is now slightly ahead of NZ at 39.265 (NZ 39.705) but the mortality rate per 100k is almost identical at 0.464 (NZ) and 0.465 (Australia). NZ has conducted slightly more tests with 2.95% of the population tested (Australia 2.84%).
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25-04-2020, 09:44 AM | #2208 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
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Time for some graph updates:
The first look at the new case numbers but as there was starting to be too big a disparity in the numbers, the graph is divided into (1) Australia / NZ; (2) UK / Germany / Italy / Spain; and (3) USA. They pretty much speak for themselves. The second set are 2nd order polynomial trends - again the USA has been separated out due to the higher raw numbers.
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Last edited by russellw; 25-04-2020 at 09:49 AM. |
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25-04-2020, 10:05 AM | #2209 | |||
Rob
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Woodcroft S.A.
Posts: 21,656
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another statistic that isn't getting a lot of airtime is 'active cases'.
https://www.news.com.au/lifestyle/he...b4559d9049b84f from the article Quote:
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25-04-2020, 10:47 AM | #2211 | |||
Donating Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Morayfield
Posts: 28,089
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Quote:
Pretty interesting graphs Russ. From a model/maths perspective what would we expect to see as the number of infections drop off like in AU and NZ. From memory, I may be wrong... An exponential decay in maths terms will never cross the zero axis?? so at what stage could we ever say we are free from infection from a modelling perspective? I'm kind of thinking from a practical perspective we cannot eliminate it as I think I heard a comment that you would need 2 incubation cycles with zero detected infections to have confidence it was gone... And I cannot see that happening
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25-04-2020, 11:09 AM | #2212 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: In Front of a Monitor
Posts: 1,651
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So in the near future with the talk of easing restrictions we could also be in a unique position.
Other countries like Singapore have had a second wave after initially doing very well. What are peoples thoughts on easing restrictions so as not to have a second wave and thus back into lock down again? Should we ease different restrictions in different states, so any mistakes are identified and not multiplied across the whole country for example.
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25-04-2020, 11:21 AM | #2213 | ||
Regular Member
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 372
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So when I look at that I see Sweden (no lockdown) 1,765 deaths Norway (lockdown) 182 deaths I think Norwegians did the smarter thing. We already know the testing is not giving us a true picture of the number of cases so we can't rely on that.
His comments on the immune system bother me. My immune system has been coping with whatever the workd throws at it for quite a number of years. Suddenly a few weeks of isolation will weaken it? How? |
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25-04-2020, 11:25 AM | #2214 | |||
AU3 ute EL futura
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 485
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Quote:
If your aim is to eradicate the virus entirely in australia (for example) you have to achieve that through real world action. Modelling predicts what might happen. Data analysis examines what has happened, and the data presentation makes understanding it easier. None of these drive reality. Regarding Sweden, I'm not sure you understand the premise of their actions. They contend that other countries will get subsequent waves of virus, that public disobedience will increase and that overall others will see higher death rates. Others disagree. It is far too early to say if they are right or wrong. What is more important ? that fewer people die this week or fewer people die overall ? |
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25-04-2020, 11:41 AM | #2215 | |||
BOSS 5.4L Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 21,936
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Quote:
It’s the random public interactions IMO we need to be cautious of so I’d rule out attending sports, sit down meals at cafe’s and restaurants, ect. |
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25-04-2020, 11:43 AM | #2216 | |||||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
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On that basis the downward arcing trend lines are a good thing and the upward ones not so good. Elimination is unlikely unless we are fortunate enough that it follows the original SARS pattern and goes away on its own. The more likely scenario is that relatively isolated countries like Australia and UnZud manage to reach a 28 day zero new case state at which point there are some tough decisions to be made at the Government level as to how we approach the new world order which is where my earlier crystal-balling came into play. Quote:
It's not an easy call and I'd not like to be making it because you probably aren't going to please anyone. I'm going to look at a different set of numbers - daily new cases per adult capita and see what that shows. Back shortly....
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25-04-2020, 11:59 AM | #2217 | |||
Donating Member
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25-04-2020, 12:46 PM | #2218 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
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Location: 1975
Posts: 107,236
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Two graphs - one for the countries on my list that have a peak daily new case rate below 10 cases per 100k population (Australia, Germany & Turkey) and those with a peak above 10.
Australia looks about what you'd expect with effective countermeasures to infection with a rise to a peak before a slight drop caused by the first set of restrictions which then went back up before the 2nd set of restrictions has led to the steady (if a little bumpy) fall in infection rates. The German line isn't as successful and while the big bumps are a result of the lower weekend testing rates, their stated view of lowering restrictions from May 3rd might be a bit premature. Turkey was a late starter with the first reported case about 10 days later than most countries but then they also waited a month before introducing restrictions only 11 days ago (12th April) and even that was only a weekend full lockdown. You can see that it did have a positive impact in the graph but it's probably a case of too little, too late. A bit more of a mixed bag here. Spain has had a couple of bites at restrictions, easing restrictions, tightening restrictions and you can see the spikes in the line caused by each change and at the moment it's heading in the wrong direction. UK - despite having restrictions in place since 25th March and being in lockdown since early April, the signs aren't all that positive. Yes they are off their peak but have shown little improvement since implementing it. Italy has made some good ground but they've been very restrictive (and enforced it) earlier than just about anywhere but their is anecdotal evidence that as the weather has warmed up, the adherence levels have dropped which might explain the recent upward trend. Either way, I suspect their planned May 3rd easing of restrictions might also be too soon. Iran actually might be a good case study. You can see when they implemented their lockdown at the beginning of April and it's been trending in the right direction ever since. They significantly eased restrictions 5 days ago (20/4) so it will be interesting to see if the little kink at the end of the graph is a hint of worse to come. France is another country that has had two bites at lockdown but which also isn't great at reporting timely data so it's hard to draw any real conclusions. Cheers Russ
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25-04-2020, 01:27 PM | #2219 | ||
HUGH JARSE
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Have you checked ya phone to see if you have this app installed?
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25-04-2020, 01:45 PM | #2220 | |||
AU3 ute EL futura
Join Date: Oct 2008
Location: Brisbane
Posts: 485
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Quote:
Our strategy as you say was to specifically avoid an overloaded HCS in the first wave, which we have done. The whole basis of the Swedish approach is based on psychology. They contend that in the subsequent outbreaks our (and others) compliance will fall so short that our overall infections, hospitalisations and deaths will overtake theirs. cs123: I was not replying to you in that part of my post, but I can see I should have clarified that. I was responding to the post above mine. The chap in the video was putting one point of view. We don't know yet which strategy will turn out best. There has been media reports and speculation in other places that the infection rate is many orders of magnitude bigger than we think but the excess is asymptomatic and untested. This is based on a few random studies in california and new york. Because we have a relatively high % rate of testing I reckon if you plot daily test numbers vs positives you'd find that as numbers go up detections go up at a much smaller rate, indicating little unknown infections, but if they trend closer together then maybe there is something to it. That has implications for the rate of deaths and hospitalisations, they would fall dramatically. Comparing jurisdictions won't yield that data imo. Last edited by guzzis3; 25-04-2020 at 01:53 PM. |
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