Covid 19 -

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Is anyone aware if Australia is currently conducting any of the blind antibody tests?

Very interesting results from both the East and West Coast of the USA, with infections possibly having started a lot earlier than initially thought.

What were the results?


IMHO, when the world has had sufficient time to test and fully analyse ALL available data, I think there are going to be a lot of people and nations with eggs on their faces. That's assuming the truth ever comes out. It took them about 10 years to be certain on the origin of SARS.
The reason China's death count went up by 50% is because they went and back tested and back counted. It will probably keep rising as they continue to back count and back test. Certain countries might be reluctant to do that because they might be afraid of what they will find. CNN has just reported that the first case in the US is now thought to be a lady in California on Feb 6th. Much earlier than initially thought.


"One victim was a 57-year-old woman who died on February 6, and the other was a 69-year-old man who died on February 17, the county said. The county did not name the woman, but Cabello told the Los Angeles Times and CNN that she was Dowd, his sister.
Neither patient had a recent history of travel that would have exposed them to the virus, Santa Clara County Department of Public Health Director Dr. Sara Cody said in a Wednesday news conference, and officials are presuming both cases represent community transmission."


First death was caused by community transmission?



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/23/u...ath/index.html

[zipping]

Originally Posted by russellw

Elimination is unlikely unless we are fortunate enough that it follows the original SARS pattern and goes away on its own. The more likely scenario is that relatively isolated countries like Australia and UnZud manage to reach a 28 day zero new case state at which point there are some tough decisions to be made at the Government level as to how we approach the new world order which is where my earlier crystal-balling came into play.



I'm frankly against easing restrictions until we reach the 28-day zero case status mentioned above. If a particular State reaches that earlier than others then maybe that could be used as a test case but you'd still have to restrict cross border travel to ensure that you don't cross-contaminate.

You realise you are betting a depression on eradication, something you admit is unlikely.

A depression is going to have an even greater impact on mortality rates but wont be seen till until 50-90 years down the track.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

What were the results?


IMHO, when the world has had sufficient time to test and fully analyse ALL available data, I think there are going to be a lot of people and nations with eggs on their faces. That's assuming the truth ever comes out. It took them about 10 years to be certain on the origin of SARS.
The reason China's death count went up by 50% is because they went and back tested and back counted. It will probably keep rising as they continue to back count and back test. Certain countries might be reluctant to do that because they might be afraid of what they will find. CNN has just reported that the first case in the US is now thought to be a lady in California on Feb 6th. Much earlier than initially thought.


"One victim was a 57-year-old woman who died on February 6, and the other was a 69-year-old man who died on February 17, the county said. The county did not name the woman, but Cabello told the Los Angeles Times and CNN that she was Dowd, his sister.
Neither patient had a recent history of travel that would have exposed them to the virus, Santa Clara County Department of Public Health Director Dr. Sara Cody said in a Wednesday news conference, and officials are presuming both cases represent community transmission."


First death was caused by community transmission?



https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/23/u...ath/index.html

https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody...ngeles-county/

https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....st-ny.amp.html

I’ll leave you to review but the infection on both sides of the US are much more far spread than first thought.

I’ve read somewhere, but not run the numbers myself, that it puts mortality rates below .04%...

[PooDog]

Originally Posted by russellw

We're not doing better although the numbers are close (see below for detail).

Australia had 14 new cases yesterday but also 4 deaths so the CMR rises to 1.184%.
NZ had 5 new cases and 1 death so the CMR also rises to 1.168%.
The UK had more than 5,000 new cases and the CMR rose to 13.596%.
The USA surpassed 50,000 deaths and the CMR rose to 5.667%.

In terms of cases per 100k pax, Australia is now slightly ahead of NZ at 39.265 (NZ 39.705) but the mortality rate per 100k is almost identical at 0.464 (NZ) and 0.465 (Australia). NZ has conducted slightly more tests with 2.95% of the population tested (Australia 2.84%).

I think you are when you take into consideration weve been in total lock down for coming up 5 weeks no businesses operating except essential services.... supermarkets etc,

[roddy1960]

What realistically is an infection rate that means limited if any lockdowns and therefore normal or near normal business ,public facilities , health centres, schools , sports and entertaiment etc, operations .No chance of a life for most approaching normality until then .

It'd have to be proven to be almost zero wouldn't it ? . And given how contagious this is we'd need a really effective treatment for the big majority of those still getting sick with or without a vaccine.

Is there a vaccine for stupid ...a certain leader of the free world needs it quick after his disinfectant craziness yesterday ..

[Citroënbender]

Restrictions in Sydney appear effectively over in many facets. People seem to be congregating, visiting, going out, whatever. Roads are busy. The Asian grocers I visited on Thursday were preferring cash (funny, that). Enforcement will soon become a game of cat-and-mouse if the government tries to clamp down.

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by roddy1960

Is there a vaccine for stupid ...a certain leader of the free world needs it quick after his disinfectant craziness yesterday ..

Common vaccine ingredients or disinfectants:

Thimerosal
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiomersal

Formaldehyde
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formaldehyde

Google Patents:
https://patents.google.com/patent/US10105389B1/en

[falcon_bandit]

Talking about CMR's is not reflective on how potent it is. I bet a lot of the people who died, were heading that way regardless of the virus. Eg, poor Jude was in palliative care for months, then dies testing positive for covid 19. Anyone who dies right now, and tests positive, will have their death wholly attributed to covid 19, and that's simply not the case

[russellw]

Originally Posted by falcon_bandit

Talking about CMR's is not reflective on how potent it is. I bet a lot of the people who died, were heading that way regardless of the virus. Eg, poor Jude was in palliative care for months, then dies testing positive for covid 19. Anyone who dies right now, and tests positive, will have their death wholly attributed to covid 19, and that's simply not the case

Not true. Underlying health issues are being counted as part of the statistical analysis but it doesn't matter if they were 'heading that way' - if the virus is the cause of their premature death, then it's a valid count.

You do realise we're all 'heading that way' don't you?

Originally Posted by zipping

You realise you are betting a depression on eradication, something you admit is unlikely.

A depression is going to have an even greater impact on mortality rates but wont be seen till until 50-90 years down the track.

I guess that depends on how long you think it will take to reach the 28 day zero new case mark. I would have said it should be less than 6 months to achieve that but then you get cluster outbreaks like the NSW nursing home that then screws with the stats.

[russellw]

Speaking of which.

Australia recorded 20 new cases yesterday (12 in NSW), 1 new death and the CMR rises to 1.1954%. From what we saw on the media reports last night, the locals aren't learning much about isolation and social distancing. I'm going to start graphing the States but I can already tell you that NSW has the worst looking curve.

NZ recorded 5 new cases, 1 death and the CMR rises to 1.232% (*passing Australia).

The UK was under 5,000 new cases but still over 800 deaths and the CMR rose to 13.694%.

The US had another almost 39,000 cases but less than 2,000 deaths but the CMR still increased to 5.663%.

Elsewhere, Russia, which had been doing really well, recorded almost 6,000 new cases.

[Citroënbender]

I would have said it should be less than 6 months to achieve that but then you get cluster outbreaks like the NSW nursing home that then screws with the stats.

Therein lies a related problem, care workers are often “casuals” and not tethered to a particular facility or group of patients. I further maintain genuine suspicion that some who provide home care could be doing the Uber thing and loaning their credentials to friends or family.

Ironing out these two items would be a good start, but I’ve seen personally only one spot check on home care in four years (and ironically, it was on a bloke whose blood should be bottled).

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by falcon_bandit

Talking about CMR's is not reflective on how potent it is. I bet a lot of the people who died, were heading that way regardless of the virus. Eg, poor Jude was in palliative care for months, then dies testing positive for covid 19. Anyone who dies right now, and tests positive, will have their death wholly attributed to covid 19, and that's simply not the case

Completely agree, if someone is terminal or managing a very poor health situation then while Covid may be the final contributor that results in their passing, it has hardly the root cause of their death.

Attributing thousands of deaths based on suspicion or instruction as is being exposed by many doctors in the US is also inflating the numbers.

[falcon_bandit]

Originally Posted by russellw

Not true. Underlying health issues are being counted as part of the statistical analysis but it doesn't matter if they were 'heading that way' - if the virus is the cause of their premature death, then it's a valid count.

You do realise we're all 'heading that way' don't you?.

Was wondering the point of u posting CMR figures?

If someone dies from poor health, and tested positive from covid 19, I guess it helps inflate numbers for a better story?

[CyberWasp]

My dumb question of the day is how do people who do not know they have the virus or show any symptoms pass the virus on?
Wouldn't the main way to pass it on to be coughing onto other people or your hands and touching things others will touch.
If you are not coughing then how are people still spreading it?

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

My dumb question of the day is how do people who do not know they have the virus or show any symptoms pass the virus on?
Wouldn't the main way to pass it on to be coughing onto other people or your hands and touching things others will touch.
If you are not coughing then how are people still spreading it?

The best example of asymptomatic transmission I can think of is the choir from the church in the US. Although nobody had symptoms and they all observed some degree of reduced contact eg not shaking hands, after choir practice 45 of the 60 members contracted the virus

[prydey]

Originally Posted by CyberWasp

My dumb question of the day is how do people who do not know they have the virus or show any symptoms pass the virus on?
Wouldn't the main way to pass it on to be coughing onto other people or your hands and touching things others will touch.
If you are not coughing then how are people still spreading it?

asymptomatic people is one of the main reasons for social distancing. That is why restrictions won't be eased straight away as its likely there are still many people with the virus who are unaware.

Every time you touch your nose or mouth and then touch something else there is the potential to transfer the virus.

sneezing and coughing are natural body reactions to foreign particles in the nose or throat. People sneeze and cough all the time.

[cheap]

[russellw]

Originally Posted by FPV8U

Completely agree, if someone is terminal or managing a very poor health situation then while Covid may be the final contributor that results in their passing, it has hardly the root cause of their death.

Attributing thousands of deaths based on suspicion or instruction as is being exposed by many doctors in the US is also inflating the numbers.

If we follow your (flawed) logic then the actual root cause of death is being born.

You are talking about two entirely different things. Terminal illnesses will (in Australia at least) be recorded as a cause of death even where Coronavirus is present based on the guidelines issued to health practitioners.

However, we aren't talking about people with terminal illness, we are talking about those who have some underlying medical condition that makes them more likely to die from the virus if they contract it.

Those underlying medical conditions include asthma (11% of the population); cardiovascular disease (18.3% of the population) and CRD (23.2% - although that includes some of the asthma patients) all of which people can (and do) live with for decades.

If they then contract the virus and die earlier than they otherwise would have then the virus is the cause of death not their pre-existing condition.

Originally Posted by falcon_bandit

If someone dies from poor health, and tested positive from covid 19, I guess it helps inflate numbers for a better story?

As above.

Based on earlier comments about thinning out the weak from the herd (which I don't endorse), perhaps we should just euthanise anyone with an underlying medical condition that might increase their chance of dying if they contract Coronavirus so that we can improve the statistics. By the best estimates I can get that would be roughly:

7.4M who have a diagnosed CRD;
1.5M living with cancers;
4.2M with Cardiovascular diseases: and
4.2M who are immunocompromised.

Some of the cancer patients will be in the immunocompromised group but certainly not all as there are other reasons for that condition.

Let's round it out an even 15M (which will include children) or a nice round 60% of the population.

[russellw]

As mentioned earlier, I've had a look at the Australian State by State data and while the longer term view is not dissimilar to the overall pattern for Australia, the shorter terms has quite a bit of variation.

The first two charts are new cases reported by State for the last 14 days (divided into the 2 larger and four smaller States excluding ACT / NT where there aren't enough cases to draw a pattern.





Finally the 2nd order trend lines for the larger States - this time these have been extrapolated for the next 3 days based on the current trend but as a modelling tool that's not a whole lot of use except as a rough indicator of which way it will head based on the past trend.

[FPV8U]

Originally Posted by russellw

If we follow your (flawed) logic then the actual root cause of death is being born.

You are talking about two entirely different things. Terminal illnesses will (in Australia at least) be recorded as a cause of death even where Coronavirus is present based on the guidelines issued to health practitioners.

However, we aren't talking about people with terminal illness, we are talking about those who have some underlying medical condition that makes them more likely to die from the virus if they contract it.

Those underlying medical conditions include asthma (11% of the population); cardiovascular disease (18.3% of the population) and CRD (23.2% - although that includes some of the asthma patients) all of which people can (and do) live with for decades.

As I said in a terminal or very poor health situation, I’m happy to be criticised but comparing that to being born, unless born with a life threatening condition is beyond a stretch.

I’m not suggesting we return to situation normal or do nothing to prevent the spread, but in my opinion (I understand you don’t agree here, that’s ok) we need to start relax some restrictions as I’ve posed before to return to some normality for the majority of the population.

Those who are diagnosed with those conditions that put them in the vulnerable arena should continue to isolate and take precautions inline with current policy.

We could take this isolation and shut borders method with the seasonal flu (I’m not saying Covid 19 is the flu) and likely safe hundreds of vulnerable people’s lives, but we balance it out like many other risks in life and balance it off lifestyle and freedoms.

I respect where your coming from Russ, life is precious and these are difficult things to balance, I don’t envy our PM or any world leader in this situation as the review of how this was handled will never be fair to the weight of the decisions made at the time.

[CoupeKing]

https://vitalitymagazine.com/article...aviolet-light/


Trumps uncle, John, was an accomplished scientist. He was also close to Nikola Tesla.

[cs123]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

https://vitalitymagazine.com/article...aviolet-light/


Trumps uncle, John, was an accomplished scientist. He was also close to Nikola Tesla.

After that presser the other day I thought to myself "This is it, this is the moment that his followers finally see that he is a complete moron"

But no.... That hasn't happened.....

[Charliewool]

Alright for Donald!... He tested negative!

https://youtu.be/ZkffnHnaPAU

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

[YT]d5QRXSbugU8[/YT




https://vitalitymagazine.com/article...aviolet-light/


Trumps uncle, John, was an accomplished scientist. He was also close to Nikola Tesla.

I'm not seeing how that makes trump smart.

My Uncle was an excellent carpenter, all I can do with wood is burn it.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by prydey

.

sneezing and coughing are natural body reactions to foreign particles in the nose or throat. People sneeze and cough all the time.

Yeah, it’s a great time to be a hay fever sufferer haha, I get looked at like I’m a leper when I have a sneezing fit.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by russellw

Let's round it out an even 15M (which will include children) or a nice round 60% of the population.

Would save everyone having to social distance I guess....

[superyob]

Originally Posted by russellw

If we follow your (flawed) logic then the actual root cause of death is being born.

You are talking about two entirely different things. Terminal illnesses will (in Australia at least) be recorded as a cause of death even where Coronavirus is present based on the guidelines issued to health practitioners.

However, we aren't talking about people with terminal illness, we are talking about those who have some underlying medical condition that makes them more likely to die from the virus if they contract it.

Those underlying medical conditions include asthma (11% of the population); cardiovascular disease (18.3% of the population) and CRD (23.2% - although that includes some of the asthma patients) all of which people can (and do) live with for decades.

If they then contract the virus and die earlier than they otherwise would have then the virus is the cause of death not their pre-existing condition.



As above.

Based on earlier comments about thinning out the weak from the herd (which I don't endorse), perhaps we should just euthanise anyone with an underlying medical condition that might increase their chance of dying if they contract Coronavirus so that we can improve the statistics. By the best estimates I can get that would be roughly:

7.4M who have a diagnosed CRD;
1.5M living with cancers;
4.2M with Cardiovascular diseases: and
4.2M who are immunocompromised.

Some of the cancer patients will be in the immunocompromised group but certainly not all as there are other reasons for that condition.

Let's round it out an even 15M (which will include children) or a nice round 60% of the population.

So if someone has a serious but non fatal gunshot wound which gets a toxic infection and that person dies, what is the cause of death???

[Romulus]

Originally Posted by cs123

After that presser the other day I thought to myself "This is it, this is the moment that his followers finally see that he is a complete moron"

But no.... That hasn't happened.....

Nope, Trump supporters understand exactly where the US and the World would be at if Hillary had one 2016. At war with just about every country, economies destroyed and so on.

I do recognise your inability to see this however, TDS is debilitating for some. Only 8 plus years to go before the Demoncrats have a snowball chance of hell getting back in power.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by superyob

So if someone has a serious but non fatal gunshot wound which gets a toxic infection and that person dies, what is the cause of death???

Doesn’t that vary by jurisdiction? I think it’s got to happen within a year in NSW.

[superyob]

So would it be the infection that caused death in NSW???