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25-04-2020, 02:37 PM | #2221 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2005
Location: Melbourne
Posts: 6,918
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IMHO, when the world has had sufficient time to test and fully analyse ALL available data, I think there are going to be a lot of people and nations with eggs on their faces. That's assuming the truth ever comes out. It took them about 10 years to be certain on the origin of SARS. The reason China's death count went up by 50% is because they went and back tested and back counted. It will probably keep rising as they continue to back count and back test. Certain countries might be reluctant to do that because they might be afraid of what they will find. CNN has just reported that the first case in the US is now thought to be a lady in California on Feb 6th. Much earlier than initially thought. "One victim was a 57-year-old woman who died on February 6, and the other was a 69-year-old man who died on February 17, the county said. The county did not name the woman, but Cabello told the Los Angeles Times and CNN that she was Dowd, his sister. Neither patient had a recent history of travel that would have exposed them to the virus, Santa Clara County Department of Public Health Director Dr. Sara Cody said in a Wednesday news conference, and officials are presuming both cases represent community transmission." First death was caused by community transmission? https://edition.cnn.com/2020/04/23/u...ath/index.html |
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25-04-2020, 02:44 PM | #2222 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Jul 2009
Location: melbourne
Posts: 4,667
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A depression is going to have an even greater impact on mortality rates but wont be seen till until 50-90 years down the track. |
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25-04-2020, 05:44 PM | #2223 | |||
BOSS 5.4L Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 21,936
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Quote:
https://news.usc.edu/168987/antibody...ngeles-county/ https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/www....st-ny.amp.html I’ll leave you to review but the infection on both sides of the US are much more far spread than first thought. I’ve read somewhere, but not run the numbers myself, that it puts mortality rates below .04%... |
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25-04-2020, 05:53 PM | #2224 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Sep 2015
Location: nz
Posts: 1,850
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Fgx xr8 winter white manual, gone but not forgotten 22 mitsubishi outlander XLS PHEV Au11 fairmont Ghia ported gt40p heads ,comp springs and locks Xe 264 cam,custom intake,pacemaker tri y headers 524nm torque 19 Triton GSXR manual |
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25-04-2020, 06:21 PM | #2225 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Dec 2014
Location: St Marys Tasmania
Posts: 3,556
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What realistically is an infection rate that means limited if any lockdowns and therefore normal or near normal business ,public facilities , health centres, schools , sports and entertaiment etc, operations .No chance of a life for most approaching normality until then .
It'd have to be proven to be almost zero wouldn't it ? . And given how contagious this is we'd need a really effective treatment for the big majority of those still getting sick with or without a vaccine. Is there a vaccine for stupid ...a certain leader of the free world needs it quick after his disinfectant craziness yesterday .. Last edited by roddy1960; 25-04-2020 at 06:28 PM. |
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25-04-2020, 06:52 PM | #2226 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 22,353
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Restrictions in Sydney appear effectively over in many facets. People seem to be congregating, visiting, going out, whatever. Roads are busy. The Asian grocers I visited on Thursday were preferring cash (funny, that). Enforcement will soon become a game of cat-and-mouse if the government tries to clamp down.
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25-04-2020, 07:06 PM | #2227 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,318
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Thimerosal https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thiomersal Formaldehyde https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Formaldehyde Google Patents: https://patents.google.com/patent/US10105389B1/en |
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26-04-2020, 07:07 AM | #2228 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 638
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Talking about CMR's is not reflective on how potent it is. I bet a lot of the people who died, were heading that way regardless of the virus. Eg, poor Jude was in palliative care for months, then dies testing positive for covid 19. Anyone who dies right now, and tests positive, will have their death wholly attributed to covid 19, and that's simply not the case
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26-04-2020, 08:52 AM | #2229 | ||||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,234
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Quote:
You do realise we're all 'heading that way' don't you? Quote:
__________________
Observatio Facta Rotae
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26-04-2020, 09:09 AM | #2230 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,234
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Speaking of which.
Australia recorded 20 new cases yesterday (12 in NSW), 1 new death and the CMR rises to 1.1954%. From what we saw on the media reports last night, the locals aren't learning much about isolation and social distancing. I'm going to start graphing the States but I can already tell you that NSW has the worst looking curve. NZ recorded 5 new cases, 1 death and the CMR rises to 1.232% (*passing Australia). The UK was under 5,000 new cases but still over 800 deaths and the CMR rose to 13.694%. The US had another almost 39,000 cases but less than 2,000 deaths but the CMR still increased to 5.663%. Elsewhere, Russia, which had been doing really well, recorded almost 6,000 new cases.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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26-04-2020, 09:12 AM | #2231 | |||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
Posts: 22,353
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Quote:
Ironing out these two items would be a good start, but I’ve seen personally only one spot check on home care in four years (and ironically, it was on a bloke whose blood should be bottled). |
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26-04-2020, 09:20 AM | #2232 | |||
BOSS 5.4L Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 21,936
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Attributing thousands of deaths based on suspicion or instruction as is being exposed by many doctors in the US is also inflating the numbers. |
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26-04-2020, 09:21 AM | #2233 | |||
Banned
Join Date: Apr 2014
Posts: 638
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Quote:
If someone dies from poor health, and tested positive from covid 19, I guess it helps inflate numbers for a better story? |
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26-04-2020, 09:41 AM | #2234 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Feb 2005
Location: In Front of a Monitor
Posts: 1,651
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My dumb question of the day is how do people who do not know they have the virus or show any symptoms pass the virus on?
Wouldn't the main way to pass it on to be coughing onto other people or your hands and touching things others will touch. If you are not coughing then how are people still spreading it?
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2004 Mercury Silver Falcon XR6T - 5 Speed 2017 Platinum White Mustang GT - 6 Speed 2022 Blue Thai-Special for Daily Duties - Auto |
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26-04-2020, 09:56 AM | #2235 | |||
Regular Member
Join Date: Jun 2019
Posts: 372
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26-04-2020, 10:11 AM | #2236 | |||
Rob
Join Date: Sep 2006
Location: Woodcroft S.A.
Posts: 21,656
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Quote:
Every time you touch your nose or mouth and then touch something else there is the potential to transfer the virus. sneezing and coughing are natural body reactions to foreign particles in the nose or throat. People sneeze and cough all the time.
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UA2 TREND 4WD BI TURBO |
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26-04-2020, 11:53 AM | #2238 | ||||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
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Quote:
You are talking about two entirely different things. Terminal illnesses will (in Australia at least) be recorded as a cause of death even where Coronavirus is present based on the guidelines issued to health practitioners. However, we aren't talking about people with terminal illness, we are talking about those who have some underlying medical condition that makes them more likely to die from the virus if they contract it. Those underlying medical conditions include asthma (11% of the population); cardiovascular disease (18.3% of the population) and CRD (23.2% - although that includes some of the asthma patients) all of which people can (and do) live with for decades. If they then contract the virus and die earlier than they otherwise would have then the virus is the cause of death not their pre-existing condition. Quote:
Based on earlier comments about thinning out the weak from the herd (which I don't endorse), perhaps we should just euthanise anyone with an underlying medical condition that might increase their chance of dying if they contract Coronavirus so that we can improve the statistics. By the best estimates I can get that would be roughly: 7.4M who have a diagnosed CRD; 1.5M living with cancers; 4.2M with Cardiovascular diseases: and 4.2M who are immunocompromised. Some of the cancer patients will be in the immunocompromised group but certainly not all as there are other reasons for that condition. Let's round it out an even 15M (which will include children) or a nice round 60% of the population.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
Last edited by russellw; 26-04-2020 at 11:58 AM. |
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26-04-2020, 12:20 PM | #2239 | ||
Chairman & Administrator
Join Date: Dec 2004
Location: 1975
Posts: 107,234
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As mentioned earlier, I've had a look at the Australian State by State data and while the longer term view is not dissimilar to the overall pattern for Australia, the shorter terms has quite a bit of variation.
The first two charts are new cases reported by State for the last 14 days (divided into the 2 larger and four smaller States excluding ACT / NT where there aren't enough cases to draw a pattern. Finally the 2nd order trend lines for the larger States - this time these have been extrapolated for the next 3 days based on the current trend but as a modelling tool that's not a whole lot of use except as a rough indicator of which way it will head based on the past trend.
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Observatio Facta Rotae
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26-04-2020, 12:25 PM | #2240 | |||
BOSS 5.4L Enthusiast
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 21,936
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Quote:
I’m not suggesting we return to situation normal or do nothing to prevent the spread, but in my opinion (I understand you don’t agree here, that’s ok) we need to start relax some restrictions as I’ve posed before to return to some normality for the majority of the population. Those who are diagnosed with those conditions that put them in the vulnerable arena should continue to isolate and take precautions inline with current policy. We could take this isolation and shut borders method with the seasonal flu (I’m not saying Covid 19 is the flu) and likely safe hundreds of vulnerable people’s lives, but we balance it out like many other risks in life and balance it off lifestyle and freedoms. I respect where your coming from Russ, life is precious and these are difficult things to balance, I don’t envy our PM or any world leader in this situation as the review of how this was handled will never be fair to the weight of the decisions made at the time. |
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26-04-2020, 01:12 PM | #2241 | ||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
Join Date: Apr 2013
Posts: 3,318
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https://vitalitymagazine.com/article...aviolet-light/ Trumps uncle, John, was an accomplished scientist. He was also close to Nikola Tesla. |
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26-04-2020, 01:44 PM | #2242 | |||
Donating Member
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Morayfield
Posts: 28,089
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Quote:
But no.... That hasn't happened.....
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I love Holdens.... |
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26-04-2020, 01:47 PM | #2243 | ||
Bolt Nerd
Join Date: Jan 2005
Location: Ojochal, Costa Rica (Pura Vida!)
Posts: 14,819
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Current vehicles.. Yamaha Rhino UTV, SWB 4L TJ Jeep, and boring Lhd RAV4 Bionic BF F6... UPDATE: Replaced by Shiro White 370z 7A Roadster. SOLD Workhack: FG Silhouette XR50 Turbo ute (11.63@127.44mph) SOLD 2 wheels.. 2015 103ci HD Wideglide.. SOLD SOLD THE LOT, Voted with our feet and relocated to COSTA RICA for some Pura Vida! (Ex Blood Orange #023 FPV Pursuit owner : ) |
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26-04-2020, 02:05 PM | #2244 | |||
Former BTIKD
Join Date: Mar 2005
Location: Sunny Downtown Wagga Wagga. NSW.
Posts: 53,197
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Quote:
My Uncle was an excellent carpenter, all I can do with wood is burn it.
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Dying at your job is natures way of saying that you're in the wrong line of work.
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26-04-2020, 02:13 PM | #2245 | |||
3..2..1..
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Bellbird park
Posts: 7,218
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Yeah, it’s a great time to be a hay fever sufferer haha, I get looked at like I’m a leper when I have a sneezing fit. |
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26-04-2020, 02:16 PM | #2246 | ||
3..2..1..
Join Date: Nov 2009
Location: Bellbird park
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Would save everyone having to social distance I guess....
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26-04-2020, 03:31 PM | #2247 | |||
Banned
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Posts: 2,811
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Quote:
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26-04-2020, 03:37 PM | #2248 | |||
FF.Com.Au Hardcore
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Location: Ivory Tower
Posts: 5,414
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I do recognise your inability to see this however, TDS is debilitating for some. Only 8 plus years to go before the Demoncrats have a snowball chance of hell getting back in power.
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26-04-2020, 03:45 PM | #2249 | ||
DIY Tragic
Join Date: Apr 2018
Location: Sydney, more than not. I hate it.
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26-04-2020, 04:22 PM | #2250 | ||
Banned
Join Date: Jun 2010
Posts: 2,811
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So would it be the infection that caused death in NSW???
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