Potential Big GFC Discussion Thread

[buggerlugs]

http://www.news.com.au/business/bank...-1226111775518
And low and behold, the sharemarket made an amazing recovery. I wonder if thats ever happened before...........

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

http://www.news.com.au/business/bank...-1226111775518
And low and behold, the sharemarket made an amazing recovery. I wonder if thats ever happened before...........

So le me get this right, as of the close of trading today the share market was actually UP on its opening point, the banks have dropped their interest rates and the $AUD has dropped against the $USD???
Sounds like a dream end to the day if you own or work for an Australian Company.. healthy signs for sure.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by davway

NO, honestly cant say i do.
Petrol has never been that price (or anywhere near it) hear in Warrnambool since the 90's.

Well it was hitting about 95c back in the deep dark GFC times. You know when they were spruking that house prices were gonna crash and that we were going into a depression.

Anyone got the price of tapis crude at the moment??

[XESP351]

Looking pretty good so far, things may not be as bad as some make it out to be.

Oil prices drop, interest rates drop, market recovers and is up, aussie dollar drops slightly, not seeing any bad news yet?

[Franco Cozzo]

A bit annoying the USD is going down when I'm about to order some more power tools from the USA.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

A bit annoying the USD is going down when I'm about to order some more power tools from the USA.

Could be worse, when I restored my Mustang a few years ago, I was buying a lot of parts from the US when it was 69 cents here. That hurt ..........

[mr smith]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

So le me get this right, as of the close of trading today the share market was actually UP on its opening point, the banks have dropped their interest rates and the $AUD has dropped against the $USD???
Sounds like a dream end to the day if you own or work for an Australian Company.. healthy signs for sure.

The Australian sharemarket's dramatic $133 billion plunge in the past week has wiped out all the gains made by superannuation funds last financial year and threatens to drive returns lower this year.

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/business/bank...#ixzz1UWYri9c0

The dollar drop is a good thing, but I'm not seeing too much health either.

[Paxton]

Originally Posted by vztrt

Well it was hitting about 95c back in the deep dark GFC times. You know when they were spruking that house prices were gonna crash and that we were going into a depression.

Anyone got the price of tapis crude at the moment??

Tappis is ~$114.4 US/Barrel.

The prices below are from Bloomberg:

Nymex Crude Future 79.24 -2.07 -2.55% 05:51
Dated Brent Spot 101.39 -2.06 -2.00% 06:03
WTI Cushing Spot 81.31 -5.57 -6.41% 08/08

[Gobes32]

Originally Posted by Big Damo

A bit annoying the USD is going down when I'm about to order some more power tools from the USA.

The positives of a lower dollar far outweigh the negatives.

[Scott]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

Sounds like a dream end to the day if you own or work for an Australian Company.. healthy signs for sure.

There are so many maybe's, here is a few I wonder about:

Has the whole thing been engineered?

Could it have been big business using fear from the US to trigger stops here and flush out some bargains?

Could a Government have engineered the fear in order for themselves to profit on bounces in a market condition they created [globally]?

Was the buying today simply a result of people remembering the opportunities they missed in GFC... and don't want to miss again? I mean, BHP for sub$35??

Was today little more than a DCB?

Will the trend continue all the way down to ~3000 because that's a well tested support and charting is a self fulfilling prophecy?

Will the trend continue because "that's just what it needs to do until someone tells me I feel better"?

Have we found support and the trend will reverse?

Buggered if I know....

[Sam_Boss260]

Originally Posted by Scott

Buggered if I know....

I agree with that!

[SEZ213]

The company I work for (multi-national affiliated with the building industry), just closed one of their divisions manufacturing plants (making a buttload of people redundant), and have just announced the closure of another division of their business (more redundancies). There is a stop on ANY employment, unless authorised by the Managing Director (I was lucky to get in by the skin of my teeth). So despite increases in housing and infrastructure, a company such as the one I work for...has taken a pretty big hit...

I'm not so sure there's any kind of economic boom on the horizon...

The agriculture industry has had a boom, particularly with the ending of the drought (which is awesome), but when the Australian manufacturers continue to sell to offshore companies (SPC was one if I recall correctly, Rosella, to name a few), and continue to import products for sale in supermarkets (because they're cheaper), even a 'glass half full' person can see it's a little bit bleak for Australian industry.

If the farmers can get the prices that they should be getting after agricultural chemicals, maintenance, water costs (particularly on the Murray-Darling basin) are taken into consideration, and the supermarkets don't keep upping the price of the necessities (in some cases up to 300% on what the farmer gets), I'll be a happy camper...The amount of arable land per person has decreased quite quickly over the last ten years or so with the increase in population, and is only set to decrease even further given the forecasts on population rise. GM foods will become more common, regardless of whether we want them or not (just take the Cotton for example...). Not trying to be doom and gloom but if the population continues to rise at the rate it is, people won't have a choice about where their food comes from - they'll be happy to just get a meal...

As to whether it was engineered, my own sentiments are that there is probably some truth in that comment...stranger things have happened, and are bound to happen in the future.

The comment about fuel being 19c a litre is actually a good one, particularly when you take into consideration that interest rates were at their height during that decade...

[BA GT-HO]

One minute the sky is falling, next minute the sun is shining.

Hard to keep up thesedays.

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by BA GT-HO

One minute the sky is falling, next minute the sun is shining.

Hard to keep up thesedays.

You can tell things arent too bad because the thread has gone mysteriously quiet...
Should the news and propaganda sites post something negative we'll be flooded with a flurry of links and quotes professing the end is near...

In contrast if there's any good news things will remain quiet.. It must be a Ford thing.. :-)

[fmc351]

Originally Posted by BA GT-HO

One minute the sky is falling, next minute the sun is shining.

Hard to keep up thesedays.

Par for the course.

One of the big problems is that if things head south for two or three days, then people panic and what would have turned around on the third or fourth day, plummets instead. Doom and gloom reporting, it should almost be illegal. ALMOST. But here, Ill put a cat amongst the pigeons, this could happen next week, everyone think 'ah she'll be right' and boom it plummets anyway.

This is the reverse side of the gains, the risk.

[irish2]

Originally Posted by buggerlugs

Could be worse, when I restored my Mustang a few years ago, I was buying a lot of parts from the US when it was 69 cents here. That hurt ..........

Same here. Damn worth it though!!

[Romulus]

What this whole fiasco illustrates is most governments are broke and are probably incapable of paying their debts without resorting to printing more money by issuing promisory notes (government bonds).

One should watch the Zeitgeist films to get an understanding of how corrupt the 'system' and financial markets are. Most of us are slaves to the system.

[buggerlugs]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

You can tell things arent too bad because the thread has gone mysteriously quiet...
Should the news and propaganda sites post something negative we'll be flooded with a flurry of links and quotes professing the end is near...

In contrast if there's any good news things will remain quiet.. It must be a Ford thing.. :-)

spot on...................

[dave289]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

You can tell things arent too bad because the thread has gone mysteriously quiet...
Should the news and propaganda sites post something negative we'll be flooded with a flurry of links and quotes professing the end is near...

In contrast if there's any good news things will remain quiet.. It must be a Ford thing.. :-)

If you are referreing to me , I was not being quiet, my kid took over the pc last night . Yesterday I said I guess we could expect to lose 50 billion + probably closer to 70 billion, well I was spot on , by 11.30 or so 68 billion had been wiped off the market.

Then as you all saw we made what could only be described as a miraculous recovery(only for the day) on the rollercoaster ride we saw ,you all know where the word miraculous is derived from .

I would like to remind everybody that we are still down 15% in less than two weeks. Its great how many have the courage to say something after the event, shows people can really think for themselves.

The move by the banks was nothing more than a desreate bid to save theri own ****. LiKE HOW THEY DROP RATES IMMEDIATELY WHEN THEY ARE IN TROUBLE BUT NOT WHEN EVRYBODY ELSE WAS. playing people like fools if you had not noticed.

We merely dogged a bullet yesterday , and while I dont really think the bank interest rate drop was then saviuor of the day it must go some way to explaining what happened ,cause it was the most miraculous recovery and one day ride we have evr had, so it was a preety big day on the market none the less.

The day before the US copped the 6th biggest one day loss in history ,so again a big day on the market, while I did think the dow might go below 10,000 points that day, it did not , but it is now only a matter of time before it does .

There was another rollercoaster ride in the US last night ,simliar to what we saw on our market yesterday , they ended up pretty even at the end ,slightly down , but better than I probably would have thought , so I dont know what to expect today , once again good luck all.

[BA GT-HO]

Actually the Dow ended up gaining around 4% on yesterdays 5% plunge.

So in 2 days it is only down 1%.

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by dave289

If you are referreing to me , I was not being quiet, my kid took over the pc last night . Yesterday I said I guess we could expect to lose 50 billion + probably closer to 70 billion, well I was spot on , by 11.30 or so 68 billion had been wiped off the market.

Then as you all saw we made what could only be described as a miraculous recovery(only for the day) on the rollercoaster ride we saw ,you all know where the word miraculous is derived from .

I would like to remind everybody that we are still down 15% in less than two weeks. Its great how many have the courage to say something after the event, shows people can really think for themselves.

The move by the banks was nothing more than a desreate bid to save theri own ****. LiKE HOW THEY DROP RATES IMMEDIATELY WHEN THEY ARE IN TROUBLE BUT NOT WHEN EVRYBODY ELSE WAS. playing people like fools if you had not noticed.

We merely dogged a bullet yesterday , and while I dont really think the bank interest rate drop was then saviuor of the day it must go some way to explaining what happened ,cause it was the most miraculous recovery and one day ride we have evr had, so it was a preety big day on the market none the less.

The day before the US copped the 6th biggest one day loss in history ,so again a big day on the market, while I did think the dow might go below 10,000 points that day, it did not , but it is now only a matter of time before it does .

There was another rollercoaster ride in the US last night ,simliar to what we saw on our market yesterday , they ended up pretty even at the end ,slightly down , but better than I probably would have thought , so I dont know what to expect today , once again good luck all.

So how did the US stock market finish up today??? Biggest gain in 2 years i hear?

You love reporting on the negatives but conveniently overlook or ignore any positives.

There's no doubt we'll see this rollercoaster continue for a while but i think you're just a tad too morbid and infatuated with all the gloom and doom...

[dave289]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

So how did the US stock market finish up today??? Biggest gain in 2 years i hear?

You love reporting on the negatives but conveniently overlook or ignore any positives.

There's no doubt we'll see this rollercoaster continue for a while but i think you're just a tad too morbid and infatuated with all the gloom and doom...

Biggest gains in two years, they are 15% down in the last two weeks alone. The dow was higher in the year 2000 than it is now and that was eleven years ago ..

you love repeorting the positives but conviently ignore the negatives, which far outwiegh any positives right now .

I could paint a positive picture for you guys if you like , but it wont be appearing for a while .

[dave289]

Originally Posted by BA GT-HO

Actually the Dow ended up gaining around 4% on yesterdays 5% plunge.

So in 2 days it is only down 1%.

I just noticed that when I got UP earlier today the US market was about even ,but obviusly finished ok on the day. They must have heard that great speech from obama , where all the greatest heads in the united states could only come up with " things will get better" . Brillaint ,how long will they believe that for, yes they might get better but not before thay get a lot worse first . facts are facts, face them.

Feel free to look in the link below . look at the bottom left of the page and look at the market segments over the last three months , does this look good to you, probably does.

http://money.cnn.com/data/us_markets/

[trippytaka]

I was watching Lateline, or SBS news (one of them) and the economist they had on sai dnot to take any notice of teh banks dropping their rates on finxed rat emortgages, as that was a predictable response to the 1.4% drop in new home loan applications - figures came out yesterday, or something.

Either way, I am stoked that the market came back up a bit yesterday. I have been sitting with my mum trying to firgure out what to do with her super... some good news is always welcome!

I have to say, I am sh** scared of the idea of QE3 though. We shouldn't forget it's debt that got us in this spot, so piling up more debt isn't going to help the situation.

Sorry about the spelling, typing fast because i have to get back to work

[|||]

Originally Posted by trippytaka

I have to say, I am sh** scared of the idea of QE3 though. We shouldn't forget it's debt that got us in this spot, so piling up more debt isn't going to help the situation.

Quantitative easing isn't about adding more debt. It's the US saying "we'll just print more money to pay back our debts". It has negative consequences for inflation, but its actually a way to reduce debt not increase it.

[FTe342]

Originally Posted by dave289

.

The move by the banks was nothing more than a desreate bid to save theri own ****. LiKE HOW THEY DROP RATES IMMEDIATELY WHEN THEY ARE IN TROUBLE BUT NOT WHEN EVRYBODY ELSE WAS. playing people like fools if you had not noticed.

Mate you & Trippy don't know what your talking about when it comes to whats happened with the fixed rates. (which makes me wonder how much credence we can place on your other comments about things financial)

Here, the variable rate is set by the RBA (except on the odd occassion when the majors add some extra). However, fixed rates are more determined by the cost of funds oseas, primarily the US bond market. This is because after deregulation years ago, Aust can't fund H/L demand from our own savings, so it comes by sourcing from oseas.
The fixed rate drop by CBA & Wpac (the others will have to follow) is in response to the decrease in cost of funds.
If the banks wanted to increase demand for H/L's they would shave off some of the extra margin they have added above the RBA increases of past . We might well see this happen.

My advice for borrowers is its too early to rush out and fix just yet. Wait and see where things settle. Aussie John reckons we might see fixed rates below 6%.

[AMGC63]

Originally Posted by FTe342

Mate you & Trippy don't know what your talking about when it comes to whats happened with the fixed rates. (which makes me wonder how much credence we can place on your other comments about things financial)

Here, the variable rate is set by the RBA (except on the odd occassion when the majors add some extra). However, fixed rates are more determined by the cost of funds oseas, primarily the US bond market. This is because after deregulation years ago, Aust can't fund H/L demand from our own savings, so it comes by sourcing from oseas.
The fixed rate drop by CBA & Wpac (the others will have to follow) is in response to the decrease in cost of funds.
If the banks wanted to increase demand for H/L's they would shave off some of the extra margin they have added above the RBA increases of past . We might well see this happen.

My advice for borrowers is its too early to rush out and fix just yet. Wait and see where things settle. Aussie John reckons we might see fixed rates below 6%.

Of coarse you are correct on all counts here.

It does however detract from the negative spin you're trying to put on life if you look at the facts behind things like this rather then paint the drop as some kind of random act of desperation.

A significant component of economic instability is as a result of panic and hysteria created by doomsayers and the media.

If everyone panicked and dumped their shares all at once we'd see a massive crash.

Calmness and the ability to look forward and ride the wave out is whats needed.

The "Henny Penny's" and "doomsayers" of life will always have something to complain about or try and paint a negative spin on everything.

While its foolish to ignore the issues we face you either fight or flight.

I'm a fighter and my success in life has come from staying calm and positive whenever faced with adversity, not panicking and screaming the sky is falling..

There's one thing ive learn't in life and business without any doubt; if you have a negative attitude to life you'll have a miserable existence... and more likely than not contribute to for-filling the negative prophesy you peddle...

[XESP351]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

I'm a fighter and my success in life has come from staying calm and positive whenever faced with adversity, not panicking and screaming the sky is falling..

There's one thing ive learn't in life and business without any doubt; if you have a negative attitude to life you'll have a miserable existence... and more likely than not contribute to for-filling the negative prophesy you peddle...

Quoted for truth..

By the way I think you accidentally quoted the wrong post...I think...

[BA GT-HO]

Originally Posted by AMGC63

Of coarse you are correct on all counts here.

It does however detract from the negative spin you're trying to put on life if you look at the facts behind things like this rather then paint the drop as some kind of random act of desperation.

A significant component of economic instability is as a result of panic and hysteria created by doomsayers and the media.

If everyone panicked and dumped their shares all at once we'd see a massive crash.

Calmness and the ability to look forward and ride the wave out is whats needed.

The "Henny Penny's" and "doomsayers" of life will always have something to complain about or try and paint a negative spin on everything.

While its foolish to ignore the issues we face you either fight or flight.

I'm a fighter and my success in life has come from staying calm and positive whenever faced with adversity, not panicking and screaming the sky is falling..

There's one thing ive learn't in life and business without any doubt; if you have a negative attitude to life you'll have a miserable existence... and more likely than not contribute to for-filling the negative prophesy you peddle...

That sums up how I feel too. Good post.

[BA GT-HO]

Interestingly the local Adelaide rag reports new house loans are up 7.3% and first home buyers are up 3.5%.