Australia housing bubble

[DRU842]

This is RBA speak for 'its a blunt instrument but its all we have'. As noted in these threads, not everyone has a mortgage and not all mortgages are floating rate. Align that with rental contracts and the timing of interest rates effects are difficult to judge.

[Syndrome]

Originally Posted by DRU842

This is RBA speak for 'its a blunt instrument but its all we have'. As noted in these threads, not everyone has a mortgage and not all mortgages are floating rate. Align that with rental contracts and the timing of interest rates effects are difficult to judge.

Blunt instrument but they keep using it!

[buggerlugs]

A Current Affair and the likes of news.com.au will have another months worth of mileage now.............

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Hope you’ve checked purity?? (Of course No-one could fool Zilo though!)
https://www.news.com.au/entertainmen...6b68ea8ac9?amp

I buy from Adelaide Exchange, they have a machine that checks purity in house, on the spot.

I know about perth Mint, in fact two years ago they were caught by not having enough gold to match the paper certificates issued to punters...their accountants rented 30 tonnes of gold from...the RBA!..that made the numbers add up according to the bean counters...as long as everyone didn't try to cash in their gold certificates at once it was all good....good reason to have the real stuff me thinks...so yeah...you can't fool Zilo.

[asagaai]

Originally Posted by zilo

As I did ..exactly at 2pm that day when it was $86500 a kilo.

You sure that was the Mint purchase back Gold Price instead of the Mint selling Gold Sale price?

Originally Posted by zilo

I found a commercial property paying 7% net instead for my SMSF.

Response: Good on you- have property in my SMSF as well.

Originally Posted by zilo

Or you aren't dumb enough to leave it in Aussie banks that now have bail in legislation...you do know about deposit bail in legislation...yeah?
And you do know the 250k guarantee is a scam...yeah?

Response: Yes- I am that dumb that in terms of money acquisition build up phase before large asset purchase, I will use banks to store money if banks are paying half decent interest, as I will use other vehicles as well.

Society will avoid bail in of banks because all confidence in the system will be gone. Like the Government bailed out FAI insurance when it went belly up, and bailed out Insureds.

It would take an absolute meltdown of the financial system and banks/financial institutions for bail in to be used to bail in deposits. In this situation, I think loss of deposits would be the least of one's concerns.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by DRU842

This is RBA speak for 'its a blunt instrument but its all we have'. As noted in these threads, not everyone has a mortgage and not all mortgages are floating rate. Align that with rental contracts and the timing of interest rates effects are difficult to judge.

But the interest rate changes is done to effect business not just home owners. Thats why its generally effective as it should spread across all sectors.

Change the GST, nah not for me unless the budget is up to pooper that bad that we are unsustainable. The poor are already struggling.

Play with Super? Imagine the logistics in adjusting that make making sure its compliant.

Sorry for me rate changes are the way to go but there needs to be some market/sector policies adjusted to help. If there is a sector in trouble, then understand why and look for options

[fordomatic]

It's been a moment without you, I'm surprised you share your secrets with everyone on here considering you are so rich

[T3rminator]

The rich generally have no issues sharing their "secrets"....if you ask....I find.

Most people just don't like the answer

Although, you generally always here about the wins, never the losses.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The rich generally have no issues sharing their "secrets"....if you ask....I find.

Most people just don't like the answer

Although, you generally always here about the wins, never the losses.

The losses are never easy to admit, but without the losses, you never learn to do better and make the necessary changes to succeed.

What I do is learn from others mistakes. That way you minimize your own mistakes and net more wins in the long run.

But that takes research, self assessment, commitment, a certain level of risk you are prepared to lose and walk away from. Most people don't have much to risk in the first place and this will mean it will be harder to change that situation, so there will be those who will naturally criticize at the idea of those who are in in a better position to improve net wealth.

These days though I have noticed the term "rich" has been applied to anyone in a better position than you are by those who don't have or made poor decisions in life. An unfair and annoying correlation.

To me, a rich person is someone who has their health, loving family, a roof over their head and food on the table.

Sorry for going OT

[fordomatic]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The rich generally have no issues sharing their "secrets"....if you ask....I find.

Most people just don't like the answer

Although, you generally always here about the wins, never the losses.

Agree, with great risk, comes great reward, or great loss. It's all a gamble imo, just about trying to find the right balance for your own needs.

Rich don't get rich without taking chances. I do hate when those that choose to live in a comfortable bubble their whole lives (which is fine) whinge about people that earnt the same working amount but took risks and profited a lot from those risks.

Another interesting point is people whinging about those that earn a lot of money, lets say the 200-500k bracket. How many of those people are working 38 hour weeks? After working with those people I've not met a single one of them that works less than 50 hours a week. Most put in at least 60 hours. Unless inherited, you don't get money easily in most cases, it takes some sort of sacrifice.

Originally Posted by blueoval

These days though I have noticed the term "rich" has been applied to anyone in a better position than you are by those who don't have or made poor decisions in life. An unfair and annoying correlation.

To me, a rich person is someone who has their health, loving family, a roof over their head and food on the table.

Sorry for going OT

Edit, Only just saw your quote mate, I wrote the below before i saw it and I am on the same page.

I should also add, I don't see money as the be all and end all. I used the term above "rich" wrongly. For me it's all about striking a good balance. I've also noticed in my life that you can have all the money in the world but it doesn't buy happiness. Finding that balance of being comfortable and also happy with life is the key.

You can have all the cars, houses, gadgets you want. I look at my uncle, worth an absolute fortune. Lives in a 10 mil house but his wife left him after the kids grew up because he was always working and never home. Now he's retired and an alcoholic spending his days drowning in his poor life decisions.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by fordomatic

Agree, with great risk, comes great reward, or great loss. It's all a gamble imo, just about trying to find the right balance for your own needs.

Rich don't get rich without taking chances. I do hate when those that choose to live in a comfortable bubble their whole lives (which is fine) whinge about people that earnt the same working amount but took risks and profited a lot from those risks.

Another interesting point is people whinging about those that earn a lot of money, lets say the 200-500k bracket. How many of those people are working 38 hour weeks? After working with those people I've not met a single one of them that works less than 50 hours a week. Most put in at least 60 hours. Unless inherited, you don't get money easily in most cases, it takes some sort of sacrifice.



Edit, Only just saw your quote mate, I wrote the below before i saw it and I am on the same page.

I should also add, I don't see money as the be all and end all. I used the term above "rich" wrongly. For me it's all about striking a good balance. I've also noticed in my life that you can have all the money in the world but it doesn't buy happiness. Finding that balance of being comfortable and also happy with life is the key.

You can have all the cars, houses, gadgets you want. I look at my uncle, worth an absolute fortune. Lives in a 10 mil house but his wife left him after the kids grew up because he was always working and never home. Now he's retired and an alcoholic spending his days drowning in his poor life decisions.

Hey no sweat mate. Wasn't pointing any fingers to anyone on here. I know its a general term that people use but find it's thrown as a blanket over people who prefer to grind or take risks in an attempt to pseudo-shame them.

Agree though that material wealth does not bring happiness. It's a sad state of mind in a capitalistic world. However, I am noticing a shift from living a simple life out of choice to living a simple life because we are pressured to, particularly with the cost of living being at the forefront of everyones minds. Those who were struggling before are now on the verge of poverty and choosing to eat vs choosing to have a roof over their head. That's the stone cold reality of where we are as a human race right at this precipice in time.

Ive also noticed those who took it to the extreme, buried their heads in work, built up a personal empire have no one meaningful to share it with. They sacrificed their family too much in pursuit of riches. Much like your uncle. There has to be a balance and the family unit is the core and needs to be protected no matter the ambition.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

The rich generally have no issues sharing their "secrets"....if you ask....I find.

Most people just don't like the answer

Although, you generally always here about the wins, never the losses.

This is true, but not all wealthy people are the same.

There is also those that are wealthy but don't need to be asked or prompted to share their secrets; they will mention their wealth at every opportunity, even when weaving it into the discussion is so off-topic it seems completely random.

Then there are those that are wealthy but you would never know it as modesty means they choose not to disclose it, even when the opportunity is there.

And then there are those that bull**** about their wealth.

[asagaai]

Some very good posts here just right now.

I had discussions with a colleague a number of years ago whose husband died while still young, with bowel cancer. They were like the glamour power couple in my area. My colleague said that her husband was always planning and working towards being very wealthy and drove himself hard.

She said to me, in the end, that she and her husband had an epiphany, that all one really needs to be "happy" is a comfortable house, food, and the company of loved ones around you.

I have spoken to a number of more elderly, whose partner have died, and they also mirror this, saying all you need is a comfortable safe/ warm/cool place to live, and family and friends, everything else is piffle.

[T3rminator]

Some more doom and gloom news.

US Feds have come out and said they need to raise their rates harder and faster. That is going to put pressure on other economies to follow suit to stay competitive.

Interesting thing is, +90% of US mortgages are on long term fixed rates, with 30 years being the most common followed by 15, so their reserve bank aren't going to cop the same sort of heat.

I should add, they could effectively weaponise this advantage....watch this space.

[b0son]

Money doesnt buy you happiness, but I'd rather be miserable in comfort.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Some more doom and gloom news.

US Feds have come out and said they need to raise their rates harder and faster. That is going to put pressure on other economies to follow suit to stay competitive.

Interesting thing is, +90% of US mortgages are on long term fixed rates, with 30 years being the most common followed by 15, so their reserve bank aren't going to cop the same sort of heat.

I should add, they could effectively weaponise this advantage....watch this space.

The other big advantage in the US at the moment, is that wage growth rates are rising faster than in Australia, so somewhat further protects US workers against increased costs due to high inflation.

Wage setting in the US, is done in a different way compared to Australia where there is a lot of enterprise bargaining.

Also the US finished 2022 on an inflation rate of 9.1 per cent, which is 1.3 per cent higher than the inflation rate in Australia.

If US banks can borrow money long term to cover fixed rate 30 year mortgages, I don't see why our big banks here cannot offer the same thing.

[T3rminator]

Year of the black rabbit continues. Two major banks in the US have just gone under. There are mumblings that this could be the start of something bigger than the 2008 GFC.

Now might be a good time to ask Zilo where to park our money.

Take care out there.

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

The other big advantage in the US at the moment, is that wage growth rates are rising faster than in Australia, so somewhat further protects US workers against increased costs due to high inflation.

Wage setting in the US, is done in a different way compared to Australia where there is a lot of enterprise bargaining.

UK had a 6.9% increase in average wage. What was ours? 3.1%? What a spiral.

[roKWiz]

Fasten your seat belts, we are flying into some turbulence.

[Citroënbender]

Curious question, Sydney suburbia. Are pools now value-reducers? Every site I see redeveloped in the local area is subdivided and no room for a pool.

Prospective client wants an older concrete, in-ground pool gone (another thread exists about cutting it up). It’s moderately deteriorated. Removal of this and related raised areas will add about 70sqm of yard space, to become a mixture of lawn and paving.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Year of the black rabbit continues. Two major banks in the US have just gone under. There are mumblings that this could be the start of something bigger than the 2008 GFC.

Now might be a good time to ask Zilo where to park our money.

Take care out there.




UK had a 6.9% increase in average wage. What was ours? 3.1%? What a spiral.

It was never a matter of if, but when. We are in for a global recession of catastrophic proportions.

Call me a tin foil hat wearer, but they will call in a global digital currency to offset the inevitable.

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Curious question, Sydney suburbia. Are pools now value-reducers? Every site I see redeveloped in the local area is subdivided and no room for a pool.

Prospective client wants an older concrete, in-ground pool gone (another thread exists about cutting it up). It’s moderately deteriorated. Removal of this and related raised areas will add about 70sqm of yard space, to become a mixture of lawn and paving.

The way the weather is nowadays, Sydney or latitudes below, IMO waste of time and money having a pool (unless expensive gas heated)
Lucky to get 10-15 days a year where it’s proper pool weather…

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Curious question, Sydney suburbia. Are pools now value-reducers? Every site I see redeveloped in the local area is subdivided and no room for a pool.

I avoided pools when looking to buy as with such small yard sizes it generally took up any green space that was available out the back.

Plus the added cost of maintenance and running each year for something that will get little use.

[Citroënbender]

That’s two “nays” and no ayes. Thank you both.

[Syndrome]

RBA will not be increasing interest rates in April and I suspect this cycle of continually increasing interest rates may have come to an end.

As said above, things have the potential to get very bad. The GFC never ended. It was cheap credit offered by global banks which has masked the real situation. And as can be seen any attempt to wean the economy of cheap credit will be almost impossible. They will keep creating money with cheap credit which will eventually result in hyper inflation.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

RBA will not be increasing interest rates in April and I suspect this cycle of continually increasing interest rates may have come to an end.

As said above, things have the potential to get very bad. The GFC never ended. It was cheap credit offered by global banks which has masked the real situation. And as can be seen any attempt to wean the economy of cheap credit will be almost impossible. They will keep creating money with cheap credit which will eventually result in hyper inflation.

Saw the Ross Greenwood update this afternoon. There is a 11% probability that rates will increase in April, so 88% it won't.

2 year government bond is below the cash rate.

Analysts now predicting US might have to drop interest rates twice over the next 6 months, which contradicts what the US Feds had come out and said just over a week ago. 3 US banks collapsing in the last week may have changed things.

[Citroënbender]

No surprise really, I think Franco Cozzo’s description of “fiscal cosplay” was both apt - and in some cases, appropriately demeaning:

https://www.9news.com.au/national/cr...4-dc650cde1648

The Emperor has no clothes; furthermore he’s no Adonis.

I believe it’s why we still need to raise interest rates, people have to realise the Anna Sorokin method of “Fake it ‘til you make it” cannot be applied to household spending. Once genuine fiscal restraint starts to show, I’ll review my opinion.

[BENT_8]

Something tells me if they've turned to the credit card to get through week to week they wont be paying it off each month as that moneys gone on rent or mortgage increases.

As I said recently, upping interest rates wont slow spending as people are addicted to living life as they have for far too long, they'll just run up the cards till they can no longer and end up bankrupt.

Then the relationships will start breaking down as they blame each other for not being able to support the lifestyle they're use to.

Dig in people, its gonna get ugly.

[kevino]

Retirees of course face a situation where their Super basically just goes backwards be it covid Ukraine War Bank contagion Rising interest rates the weather football results whatever etc etc. And of course if you draw down a pension from your super down it goes.

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Something tells me if they've turned to the credit card to get through week to week they wont be paying it off each month as that moneys gone on rent or mortgage increases.

As I said recently, upping interest rates wont slow spending as people are addicted to living life as they have for far too long, they'll just run up the cards till they can no longer and end up bankrupt.

Then the relationships will start breaking down as they blame each other for not being able to support the lifestyle they're use to.

Dig in people, its gonna get ugly.

To an extent I agree; it is a policy structure that’s likely to “break” people who don’t seek meaningful change in a timely fashion. But I also believe that it’s only going to bring some of those events forward in lives - they are likely to have happened at some later point anyway.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Analysts now predicting US might have to drop interest rates twice over the next 6 months, which contradicts what the US Feds had come out and said just over a week ago. 3 US banks collapsing in the last week may have changed things.

Nope...up another 25 points...banking crisis subsided they reckon.

https://www.bankrate.com/banking/fed...ggest-winners/

Ross Greenwood is a spruiker...not an expert in my opinion.