Covid 19 -

[Cav]

Originally Posted by FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0

The best analogy I've heard for the Coronavirus pandemic and the potential lifting of any restrictions is that it is similar to using a parachute; just because you are controlling your decent under the parachute nicely, you don't then cut the lines and allow free fall again.

Yeah, that's something Franco would do.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Is anyone else more scared of what is to come post pandemic than the pandemic event itself? This is no disrespect to those who have lost their lives or are ill.

I came across this article this morning. Politico.com is not some chinese or russian propaganda website.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navirus-207244

It frightens me because it brings back memories of the Iraq war. US had one objective, and it was able to to fool the entire world to go to war based on a lie. If you read and listen to major headlines at the moment, it is pretty obvious this is happening again (except we do not know if it is lies or fact yet), and what is more frightening is that our leaders are somewhat lubing us up, making accusations based on flimsy or no evidence, and its often from anonymous official sources based on classified documents that our own politicians aren't allowed to access.

Every time I read one of these headlines it gives me anxiety issues. Obvious thing to do is to "not look", but its bloody hard not to get bombarded every time you turn on the tv or the PC.

Without a doubt the poo is going to hit the fan soon. Countries need to be mindful how they act and speak until the facts are 100% and backed by multiple sources, not someone with an agenda.

Its not a good look that the last two major outbreaks have come from a particular region of the world.

Dont recall Africa or India having the issue and it getting out of control, but I am yet to research or have my care factor get to that point.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by superyob

Careful, those who think the world revolves around notions of 'equality' and bottled unicorn farts may suggest you wear a tin foil accoutrement...

Personally, I agree that all is not as it seems. If it looks like a duck, quacks like a duck...

There is a big difference between creating a situation, and taking advantage of a situation.

What T3rminator is suggesting could happen. The US and other countries are looking for an excuse to beat up on China. China already test the patience of the world with their antics in the South China Seas. All experts agree that this virus is NOT man made however that won't stop countries like the US trying to convince people that China need to be punished, and use it as an excuse to take some sort of action against them. WMD all over again.

I'm not sure it will happen, but there is a lot of hate toward China around the world right now so even the flimsiest evidence gets believed.

[burnz]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Was it this funeral home?
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bodies-...home-covid-19/

no, hospitals labeling other death as covid without testing.

project veratas.

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by russellw

It's actually irrelevant what percentage of the population is running round asymptomatic given that (1) we already know that having had it once doesn't create immunity;

Nitpicking, but I'm not sure that we know that. What I've read from "credible" sources is that we don't know if you get post infection immunity, or if you do how long it lasts. I have seen many statements saying don't rely on PI immunity, which is probably sensible advice.

[russellw]

Originally Posted by cs123

Is the number of active cases just because they are not testing for recovered patients?

It's certainly possible.

Someone asked earlier about the Swedish strategy which is designed to help develop a herd immunity by taking a more relaxed approach.

While it may be months (or even years) before we know for sure whether it is a good ploy, there is enough preliminary data to make some comments.

1. This type of strategy really relies on being able to keep the case mortality rate reasonably low but at 12.261%, it's higher than a lot of countries. The 3 neighbouring countries Denmark, Finland and Norway have CMR's of 4.9%, 4.2% and 2.7% respectively. Australia, by comparison is 1.3%.

2. You would reasonably expect the per capita case rate to be higher and at 201/100k it is but not as much as might be expected when the 3 neighbours are 155, 88 and 141 respectively. Mind you, Australia is at 26.4 so the gaps are still quite wide.

3. The mortality rate per 100k also underlies point 1 as Sweden is 24.4 while the neighbouring countries are 7.3, 3.7 and 3.8. Australia is 0.38.

4. Perhaps the best guide is the new cases per day which have been tapering off in most of the countries worldwide but which are still over 600 per day in Sweden (about 6 per 100k) while Denmark is ~150 (2.6/100k); Finland is ~100 (1.8/100k) and Norway is ~50 (0.92).

5. They have failed miserably to protect those in aged care facilities under their very partial lockdown as almost 35% of the deaths have been sourced in those places. Of course, the 'survival of the fittest' brigade won't see that as an issue.

They are predicating the strategy on two assumptions. The first of these is that there are 125 unidentified cases for each identified one which, in turn, leads them to believe that ~23% of the population has already had the virus. The second assumption is that having had the virus, people are then immune from further infection.

The first of these is obviously a wild guess as there is little hard data on what the rate of unidentified cases actually is. Even if it is correct, that still leaves three quarters of the population prone to infection.

The second, we have already discussed and you can only hope for their sake that the assumption is both correct and that any immunity is long-term.

Only time is actually going to tell us whether this strategy is going to provide a longer term benefit to the country. What is clear, is that it is currently leading to avoidable deaths in the hope that deaths can be avoided in the future.

[Cav]

Bewdy

From today we are able to travel up to 50kms from home.

I'd better get protected from those covid laden virus carriers that I am sure are everywhere here in Central Qld.

To be safe I'll be wearing my gloves and mask, you can't be too careful

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Polyal

Dont recall Africa or India having the issue and it getting out of control, but I am yet to research or have my care factor get to that point.

Actually 2009 swine flu came from North America. If you can believe figures on wikipedia, 18000 lab confirmed deaths, but CDC and WHO estimate real figure was anywhere up to 575,000. A lot of deaths were passed off as "flu" without any real testing.


And if you look at the CDC website, the flu stats for 2017-2018 are estimated 45 million infections (yes you read that right) and 61,000 deaths. These are not hocus pocus numbers, they are published on the CDC website.



So this is what scares me. That the pandemic is being used for a bigger agenda. And Australians are being lubed up for it. I'm giving myself mental health problems just thinking about it.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by prydey

There is a big difference between creating a situation, and taking advantage of a situation.

What T3rminator is suggesting could happen. The US and other countries are looking for an excuse to beat up on China. China already test the patience of the world with their antics in the South China Seas. All experts agree that this virus is NOT man made however that won't stop countries like the US trying to convince people that China need to be punished, and use it as an excuse to take some sort of action against them. WMD all over again.

I'm not sure it will happen, but there is a lot of hate toward China around the world right now so even the flimsiest evidence gets believed.

Hitting when your opponent is at its weakest is the right strategy in my view.

This is what we do know

The virus escaped from China.

China delayed telling the world (with the help of WHO) while at the same time amassing all relevant medical equipment to treat the virus from the rest of the world.

China is seizing land in the Pacific ocean.

China infiltrates and spies on the west.

China intends to dominate the world through technology, trade and debt.

So maybe it's not a bad idea to start taking China to task

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by Cav

Bewdy

From today we are able to travel up to 50kms from home.

I'd better get protected from those covid laden virus carriers that I am sure are everywhere here in Central Qld.

To be safe I'll be wearing my gloves and mask, you can't be too careful

image

Now that pic changes things. All the pictures I've seen of you and your dog together I thought it was a dachshund, but it's actually a great dane.

[Cav]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Now that pic changes things. All the pictures I've seen of you and your dog together I thought it was a dachshund, but it's actually a great dane.

If you are talking about my dick you'd be right.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Cav

Hitting when your opponent is at its weakest is the right strategy in my view.

This is what we do know

The virus escaped from China.

China delayed telling the world (with the help of WHO) while at the same time amassing all relevant medical equipment to treat the virus from the rest of the world.

China is seizing land in the Pacific ocean.

China infiltrates and spies on the west.

China intends to dominate the world through technology, trade and debt.

So maybe it's not a bad idea to start taking China to task

Absolutely.

Anyone who believes China isn't a real threat to freedom and democracy has rocks in their head, or is extremely ignorant.

[guzzis3]

I thought we were let out from tomorrow ? I thought it was midnight tonight it starts ?

The Swedish approach is also driven by the assumption that if the row goes into yoyo lockdowns compliance will signifignatly diminish over time yielding far bigger outbreaks, while Sweden will remain stable at some lower rate producing lower mortality overall. It's based in psychology not epidemiology or virology.

It has been stated many times by officials that the lockdown approach is not intended to eradicate the virus but to control the rate of infections to avoid overloading the health care system. In this regard Sweden has obviously and demonstrably succeeded. It is LIKELY, ie I have no solid data to support this, that their assumptions about asymptomatic infections are wrong, and quite possibly their infection, hospitalisation and mortality numbers going forward may not look very different to lockdown juristictions.

It will be interesting to see...

I also thought the Planet America graphs of death rates overall this year/last year were terribly interesting. About 80% to my eye were logged covid and about 20% unexplained. Obviously they could be anything, covid or not. It would be concerning if a significant proportion of those were found to be lockdown related, DV/Unemployment/whatever...

Now for the really important internet stuff: What's on sale this week at liquor land....

[guzzis3]

Originally Posted by CoupeKing

Now that pic changes things. All the pictures I've seen of you and your dog together I thought it was a dachshund, but it's actually a great dane.

What confuses me is why the great dane is wearing blue gloves on it's ears...

[Citroënbender]

Today I popped into the workshop I sometimes haunt; had to pink slip Povo Ute.

It was dead as a doornail, a situation significantly due to the NSW restrictions. They weren’t even bothering to put all the shop lights on. AIS spot audits are apparently being conducted by phone at the present. My mate commented the potential for mischief in this change (eg calling another inspection station to prank them).

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Is anyone else more scared of what is to come post pandemic than the pandemic event itself? This is no disrespect to those who have lost their lives or are ill.

I came across this article this morning. Politico.com is not some chinese or russian propaganda website.

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/0...navirus-207244

It frightens me because it brings back memories of the Iraq war. US had one objective, and it was able to to fool the entire world to go to war based on a lie. If you read and listen to major headlines at the moment, it is pretty obvious this is happening again (except we do not know if it is lies or fact yet), and what is more frightening is that our leaders are somewhat lubing us up, making accusations based on flimsy or no evidence, and its often from anonymous official sources based on classified documents that our own politicians aren't allowed to access.

Every time I read one of these headlines it gives me anxiety issues. Obvious thing to do is to "not look", but its bloody hard not to get bombarded every time you turn on the tv or the PC.

I don't believe we will see a war similar to the world war II
type scenario ever again as all the major players have nuclear weapons and it would be an extinction event for humans if they got used.

I think what will happen is the major players will posture, make threats and then work on undermining each others economies to hurt their pocket rather than boots on ground war.

Boots on ground war will be reserved for smaller proxy battles hosted by small nations to push vested interests - ie Middle East with arming and training one side of the coin.

If you were really interested in hurting China then you'd look into sourcing your manufacturing elsewhere.

Australians are too self centered to think of anything other than their own pocket, we all want higher wages and want to pay less for everything, so we're tied to China.

[superyob]

You on the crapper again FC???

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by superyob

You on the crapper again FC???

Lunch, but my best work happens on the crapper

Unfortunately in an effort to live past 35 I have resorted to this



I haven't completed my life's work of baiting people into pointless arguments on the internet yet and as such have to resort to such drastic measures.

Unfortunately you may have to put up with me for a couple of years longer, unless I get hit by the bus walking to Crown Casino when it reopens.

Or I am satisfied with my work and have decided to pass away from (un)natural causes by resuming my preferred diet of carbohydrates consisting of beer, pasta and bread

Or COVID-19 gets me.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

And if you look at the CDC website, the flu stats for 2017-2018 are estimated 45 million infections (yes you read that right) and 61,000 deaths. These are not hocus pocus numbers, they are published on the CDC website.

The CDCs figures are estimates based on mathematical modelling. Subsequent serology studies on public health samples suggests the real infection rate was nearly 50% of the population.

61k deaths from almost half the US population. And the spread of that flu was virtually uncontrolled - no lockdowns, no social distancing measures. Nothing.

Meanwhile, the country has been virtually ground to a halt economically/socially, and they've already hit 63k deaths from Covid-19 with over half the year still to go.

If you cant see that comparing seasonal flu with covid-19 isnt even apples and oranges, its apples and albatrosses, there's no point trying to explain anything further to you. The one with the agenda isnt the 'new world order', its you.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I don't believe we will see a war similar to the world war II
type scenario ever again as all the major players have nuclear weapons and it would be an extinction event for humans if they got used.

I think what will happen is the major players will posture, make threats and then work on undermining each others economies to hurt their pocket rather than boots on ground war.

Boots on ground war will be reserved for smaller proxy battles hosted by small nations to push vested interests - ie Middle East with arming and training one side of the coin.

If you were really interested in hurting China then you'd look into sourcing your manufacturing elsewhere.

Australians are too self centered to think of anything other than their own pocket, we all want higher wages and want to pay less for everything.

It sucks how much we are in chinas pocket. And you see the way some of the big business guys suck up to them. It's sickening.

I really do hope we start to untangle this mess we have got ourselves into relying on these CCP scumbags. Bring some of our business and manufacturering home. Hopefully at least some will see the damage relying on foreign supplies has caused during big events like this, and they try to become more self-sufficient.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Bossxr8

It sucks how much we are in chinas pocket. And you see the way some of the big business guys suck up to them. It's sickening.

I really do hope we start to untangle this mess we have got ourselves into relying on these CCP scumbags. Bring some of our business and manufacturering home. Hopefully at least some will see the damage relying on foreign supplies has caused during big events like this, and they try to become more self-sufficient.

I feel this outlook ignores the export market. Australia has much more to lose if China boycott australia rather than the other way around.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

unless I get hit by the bus walking to Crown Casino when it reopens.
.

Any idea what day that maybe, I need to organize the bus.

[superyob]

Originally Posted by prydey

I feel this outlook ignores the export market. Australia has much more to lose if China boycott australia rather than the other way around.

Could you explain how please. I am an economic illiterate...

[prydey]

Originally Posted by superyob

Could you explain how please. I am an economic illiterate...

http://www.worldstopexports.com/aust...port-partners/

you want australia to have $90b taken out of the economy?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by superyob

Could you explain how please. I am an economic illiterate...

Basically we like giving all our resources away and buy Chinese made rubbish back.
Economics 101.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Basically we like giving all our resources away and buy Chinese made rubbish back.
Economics 101.

Like?

I love it how the work force bags big corporate but they are they ones that supply the jobs, its when those jobs are lost that everyone is up in arms.

Yet if those in the workforce were in a position to run a business and make money then in the capitalist society we live in I guarantee you would not make a different choice, you would follow the market where it demands.

SO if you are serious then go protest in the street against globalization and capitalism. If you are not actively doing that away from the keyboard the your wasting your time.

I agree strategic resources and capabilities need to be looked at, but you cant run your country based off a "once in a 100 years" event; you can however be better prepared.

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by prydey

I feel this outlook ignores the export market. Australia has much more to lose if China boycott australia rather than the other way around.

Would you rather take the economic hit while we establish new markets or have your children live under the influence of the CCP?

They own some of our critical infrastructure:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...19-grjqzx.html

https://www.smh.com.au/business/chin...16-glp7cg.html

They own some of our farms

https://www.farmweekly.com.au/story/...-aussie-farms/

They actively interfere with our companies who don't toe the line in the CCP's interest:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...07-p4zk0h.html

They intervene when our Government tries to sign free trade agreements against CCP's interests:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...24-p50bj5.html

They're constantly trying to undermine Australia's sovereignty by influencing our politics:

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...o-chief-claims

They hold significant influence in our universities:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-...s-say/11425276

China is not our friend, they're our sugar daddy and we're taking it in the rear for less than the going rate.

Sent from my Nokia 3315 on the crapper

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Would you rather take the economic hit while we establish new markets or have your children live under the influence of the CCP?

They own some of our critical infrastructure:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/the-...19-grjqzx.html

https://www.smh.com.au/business/chin...16-glp7cg.html

They own some of our farms

https://www.farmweekly.com.au/story/...-aussie-farms/

They actively interfere with our companies who don't toe the line in the CCP's interest:

https://www.smh.com.au/business/comp...07-p4zk0h.html

They intervene when our Government tries to sign free trade agreements against CCP's interests:

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fede...24-p50bj5.html

They're constantly trying to undermine Australia's sovereignty by influencing our politics:

https://www.theguardian.com/australi...o-chief-claims

They hold significant influence in our universities:

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-08-...s-say/11425276

China is not our friend, they're our sugar daddy and we're taking it in the rear for less than the going rate.

Sent from my Nokia 3315 on the crapper

Before all the union members and labour voters get up in arms just fact check other countries regarding foreign investment. FI is OK, but we should be mindful of the criticality of it.

Again, please let the farmer who got offered good money for his investment who he should and shouldn't sell it too.

I am all for a mindset shift, but everyone needs to be onboard and as above you will find this will cause more harm than good.

Ill quote myself here (Roddy will love it), but Australia is the Tassie of the world and we seem to think we have the money and budget to live like a larger nation. So unless everyone wants to go Fiji style then we need exports to the highest bidder.

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by roKWiz

Any idea what day that maybe, I need to organize the bus.

You gunna sell Tickets on the Bus..???

if so I'll take One..

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Cav

If you are talking about my dick you'd be right.

More like a Pekingese.