Australia housing bubble

[blueoval]

WA building company Slatter Group collapses into liquidation

https://www.news.com.au/finance/busi...694f8854c925cb

[fordomatic]

Originally Posted by Syndrome

I saw a six bedroom home go for stupid money at auction earlier today. Two groups of middle eastern people trying to outbid each other. They will probably stuff three families into that place.

We could take a leaf out of their culture for things like this. There is a reason the asian community and middle eastern community thrives here in Australia. They are mostly very hard workers and will do anything for their family. Meanwhile us aussies are selfish and not so much about family, i'm guilty of that too.

[T3rminator]

Well...annual inflation just ticked up 0.5% again, to 6.8%. RBA meets next Tues.

Wesfarmers CEO saying the honeymoon for retailers is over. Apparently they have never seen spending habits before like what has happened post pandemic. People were not bargain hunting, and just picked whatever they wanted regardless of price. (Wondering if he was trying to justify their own record profit margins). But that will soon come to an end.

[b0son]

The monthly indicator was 6.3% for March, have they published April's data yet?

[FoxtrotGolfXray 5.0]

Originally Posted by b0son

The monthly indicator was 6.3% for March, have they published April's data yet?

Yep.

https://www.9news.com.au/finance/aus...6-8c3bcc0a53f1

[Citroënbender]

This will be likely ignored by many… RBA head saying that people should in a good number of situations, be considering constituting households with more people in them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-...down/102414220

[b0son]

Meh. Core inflation is down, in April they removed the fuel excise subsidy and lo and behold, fuel inflation is a big contributor to the overall figure. Hardly justification for a big rise, if any.

The monthly inflation figure is the sum of all the 12 months up to now, and most of the 6.8 came from earlier in the last year. Recent monthly inflation is clearly trending down, and if you ignore the fuel component, the last month annualised is <4%. The rises are doing their thing.

I cant understand the amount of people saying we need a 0.5-0.75% increase when its clear that inflation is being brought under control.

[blueoval]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

This will be likely ignored by many… RBA head saying that people should in a good number of situations, be considering constituting households with more people in them.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2023-05-...down/102414220

Sure, I'll take on extras if old mate does the same with his house. /end sarcasm

That bloke is a complete flog.

[T3rminator]

Wage growth is a threat. Full employment is a threat.

Why is it that our our economic system turns to crap when the the plebs can start to afford nice things.

[zilo]

Could be a 0.5% percent jump next week.

(That's my guess....)

that would be interesting.

[zilo]

Can't wait for the sookey lah lah GayBC stories about the poor mortgage holders.

[blueoval]

https://www.news.com.au/finance/real...89ff53eca65d91

[T3rminator]

while mortgage holders are coming off “a few years of very low interest rates, mortgage costs as a share of income are at their highest since 1984”.

Can I throw away my money to a charity instead?

[Citroënbender]

Why is so much of the media focus on people encumbered in new dwellings, or beached by unsustainable contracts?

[ToryMikey]

Originally Posted by Citroënbender

Why is so much of the media focus on people encumbered in new dwellings, or beached by unsustainable contracts?

Because the media love to sensationalise. Not to mention, the largely left leaning media love to push the housing bubble myth because it provides them an easy excuse to hate on landlords, and supposedly unfair tax policy.

I would never buy a new house (at my age at least), it's just not worth it compared to existing which is built better and usually comes on bigger land. High end custom homes, different story, but ugly cookie cutter grey boxes built in MDF don't do it for me.

As for the "bubble" itself. 1 minute of looking on Realestate found me this:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ough-142297212

Fully renovated on 800 square metres of FLAT land. Here in Maryborough which has train services to Melbourne, and is less than two hours drive from the CBD. Everything you need is here. Less than an hour from Ballarat or Bendigo if you need more.

$345,000 purchase price, and if you're a first home buyer here in Victoria you don't pay stamp duty. 10% deposit is $34500, leaving $310500.

Interest rates are rising however 4.5% standard variable rates can be found for PPOR. So let's use 4.8% as an example. That will leave us with $376 per week repayments. And that includes principal and interest...hardly ridiculously unaffordable.

The issue with the "bubble" is people wanting to live in gentrified inner city areas that are nothing like what they were 30 years ago.

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by ToryMikey

Because the media love to sensationalise. Not to mention, the largely left leaning media love to push the housing bubble myth because it provides them an easy excuse to hate on landlords, and supposedly unfair tax policy.

I would never buy a new house (at my age at least), it's just not worth it compared to existing which is built better and usually comes on bigger land. High end custom homes, different story, but ugly cookie cutter grey boxes built in MDF don't do it for me.

As for the "bubble" itself. 1 minute of looking on Realestate found me this:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ough-142297212

Fully renovated on 800 square metres of FLAT land. Here in Maryborough which has train services to Melbourne, and is less than two hours drive from the CBD. Everything you need is here. Less than an hour from Ballarat or Bendigo if you need more.

$345,000 purchase price, and if you're a first home buyer here in Victoria you don't pay stamp duty. 10% deposit is $34500, leaving $310500.

Interest rates are rising however 4.5% standard variable rates can be found for PPOR. So let's use 4.8% as an example. That will leave us with $376 per week repayments. And that includes principal and interest...hardly ridiculously unaffordable.

The issue with the "bubble" is people wanting to live in gentrified inner city areas that are nothing like what they were 30 years ago.

But whta jobs etc are out there?

Cheap houses are due to lack of work opportunity or remoteness.

I do agree on the new house comment, they are cheaply built (in general) these days.

Rates need to be up near 6% atleast.

[ToryMikey]

Originally Posted by Polyal

But whta jobs etc are out there?

Cheap houses are due to lack of work opportunity or remoteness.

I do agree on the new house comment, they are cheaply built (in general) these days.

Rates need to be up near 6% atleast.

Just off the top of my head:

Healthcare: both at private clinics and the hospital. We are crying out for doctors, we have the capacity both at 2 large locally owned private clinics and the Maryborough Hospital. Not to mention allied health, nursing, health administration etc. All of which are paid exactly the same as in the big city, with less housing costs. In the case of doctors, we have found it easier to hire from South Africa (yes!) than from the city, and this is including having all accommodation costs paid for and remuneration over and above what would be made at a standard outer metropolitan private clinic.

Aged care: Maryborough is commonly seen as an excellent town to retire to given our top notch aged care facilities - just had a chat with a lady yesterday saying that what we've got here is leagues better than in outer Melbourne areas such as Melton and Sunbury. Our premier aged care facility "Havilah" has recently expanded with a newly built campus called "The Terrace", needing nursing staff, personal care staff, admin, IT/maintenance etc, not to mention those same jobs in the 4 existing campuses, and the MDHS Wattle Rise nursing home. AND the Avoca and Dunolly nursing homes.

Education: Teachers can walk into full time jobs, unlike in metro areas where they need to do a few years of CRT relief work. This is particularly the case for Not to mention learning support officers, administration, etc. And of course, you'll make the same money as in a big city while paying much less in housing costs. Childcare is crying out for staff too, no matter which of the centres in Maryborough you look at, same goes with the Avoca centre too.

Factory work: True Foods, McPhersons Printing, Capilano Honey etc. all constantly hiring, and that's just off the top of my head. Look at the Maryborough Advertiser classifieds for evidence of this.

Not to mention we have all the same casual and full time retail/hospitality work that would be present in any suburban area of a major city. Shopping, supermarkets (each of the 4 supermarket companies has a store here), hardware stores (3 locally owned hardware stores), real estate, restaurants/bars, AND we are within commuting distance to both Bendigo and Ballarat. Half an hour to Castlemaine and Daylesford, where there are less jobs and houses are twice the price. It takes me 45 minutes to get from my house to Kangaroo Flat or Miners Rest, and it's a consistent 45 where I don't have to worry about traffic. You can still have the kids live at home and attend uni at Latrobe, Fed Uni, ACU. Also we have Fed Uni TAFE and Bendigo TAFE easily accessed.

Yes, high end financial and white collar work is not here, but people in those industries are limited to the CBD of major cities, and they wouldn't struggle to afford city real estate on their salaries.

The problem here in Maryborough is *lack of workers* not lack of jobs.


Agree 100% on new houses being cheaply built. It's hilarious seeing them with no eaves, and flimsy cement sheet above the windows instead of a lintel + brick.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by ToryMikey

Because the media love to sensationalise. Not to mention, the largely left leaning media love to push the housing bubble myth because it provides them an easy excuse to hate on landlords, and supposedly unfair tax policy.

I would never buy a new house (at my age at least), it's just not worth it compared to existing which is built better and usually comes on bigger land. High end custom homes, different story, but ugly cookie cutter grey boxes built in MDF don't do it for me.

As for the "bubble" itself. 1 minute of looking on Realestate found me this:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ough-142297212

Fully renovated on 800 square metres of FLAT land. Here in Maryborough which has train services to Melbourne, and is less than two hours drive from the CBD. Everything you need is here. Less than an hour from Ballarat or Bendigo if you need more.

$345,000 purchase price, and if you're a first home buyer here in Victoria you don't pay stamp duty. 10% deposit is $34500, leaving $310500.

Interest rates are rising however 4.5% standard variable rates can be found for PPOR. So let's use 4.8% as an example. That will leave us with $376 per week repayments. And that includes principal and interest...hardly ridiculously unaffordable.

The issue with the "bubble" is people wanting to live in gentrified inner city areas that are nothing like what they were 30 years ago.

Anyone can cherry pick a cheaper area and then claim the problem lies with the people....

Spoken like most other older folk who just don't want to accept that home ownership is harder now, even though the facts are all plain to see.

There is a focus on renting currently but few are prepared to question how many of those looking for a rental are doing so because they can't afford to buy. For me it says that the policy makers have their nose in the trough and don't want to ruin their cash cow.

Supply v demand is one of the main drivers of price. Not just in housing. Every industry. There was an article recently that said about 25% of real estate was owned by 1% of the population. Those who buy multiple homes always claim they're providing a service but the truth is, they are profiteering first. The rent prices are evidence of this. It's also fact that every subsequent house bought is one that a new home buyer can't buy.

Of course I'll just get accused of having a simplistic view but I'm fine with that.

[ToryMikey]

Originally Posted by prydey

Anyone can cherry pick a cheaper area and then claim the problem lies with the people....

Spoken like most other older folk who just don't want to accept that home ownership is harder now, even though the facts are all plain to see.

There is a focus on renting currently but few are prepared to question how many of those looking for a rental are doing so because they can't afford to buy. For me it says that the policy makers have their nose in the trough and don't want to ruin their cash cow.

Supply v demand is one of the main drivers of price. Not just in housing. Every industry. There was an article recently that said about 25% of real estate was owned by 1% of the population. Those who buy multiple homes always claim they're providing a service but the truth is, they are profiteering first. The rent prices are evidence of this. It's also fact that every subsequent house bought is one that a new home buyer can't buy.

Of course I'll just get accused of having a simplistic view but I'm fine with that.

Cherry pick a cheaper area? I live in Maryborough - as such it's the area I know best. I'm sure there are even better value areas around that I'm not as knowledgeable about. And I'm not yet 30.

I'm not even convinced the housing market *can* crash. Outside of zone 1 super desirable areas - those areas of course being desirable to high income inner city professionals who can pay for it all - there are affordable areas within all our major cities. Maybe Sydney is an exception there though I'm not 100% sure. Are some suburbs overvalued compared to others? Yes, I'm not denying that. However, the 2008 GFC happened due to subprime loans, which were rife in the USA at the time, and still are. This isn't the case here in Australia, particularly since about 2016 when APRA reforms hit hard. We don't have a Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac here. Yes, we have smaller lenders but they are actually more stringent than the big banks. Try qualifying for a loan when you're self employed.

That said, it's not like if a housing crash happens, you can go ahead and grab your inner city standalone home for $300k. Who would lend you the money? Not the Australian banks which are predominantly holding residential real estate as security. Who would you work for, when there's a high chance you would lose your job to go ahead with it.

As for your comment about landlords - I'm self employed, would you also say that I'm hiring people and providing them with jobs to feed their families just so I can keep my nose in the trough? What's the alternative, to shove renters on an already overstressed public system? Just so they can live where the Government tells them to, among drug use and domestic violence, in an unrepaired shack filled with asbestos, and freezing in the winter because the Vulcan Heritage heater was never replaced? Like it or not, but landlords do a much better job of housing those who don't own a home than the Victorian Government - and are held to a higher maintenance standard here in Victoria at least. Have you seen how much the Government charges public housing residents? It ain't free.

The major policy failure in Australia is concentrating everyone into 5 major cities. Market forces will do what they will when that happens.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by ToryMikey

As for the "bubble" itself. 1 minute of looking on Realestate found me this:

https://www.realestate.com.au/proper...ough-142297212

Fully renovated on 800 square metres of FLAT land. Here in Maryborough which has train services to Melbourne, and is less than two hours drive from the CBD. Everything you need is here. Less than an hour from Ballarat or Bendigo if you need more.

.

Shhhhhhhh, don't tell everyone.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by prydey

Spoken like most other older folk who just don't want to accept that home ownership is harder now, even though the facts are all plain to see.

"The boomers made me do it"......

https://twitter.com/jack_toohey/stat...637575169?s=20

[prydey]

No one is saying previous generations had it easy. I think the overwhelming majority would agree that there have been some very difficult times in years gone by.

So when it gets said that it's harder to own a home now than ever before, that's not making light of the struggles in the past, or the sacrifices made, it's purely from a financial point of view.

Everyone makes choices in life. Personally we chose to be a single income family. My wife stopped working when we had kids. This is how many families worked in generations past.

If I was to buy a house now, on the income that I'm on, there's no way we could do it on single income. That's our choice though.

Childcare opens up a whole new topic though which would likely be just as robust as this one.

[Honest Gaza]

I have two Sons who recently purchased homes to live in with their families. One was project Home and the other pre-lived.

They are both impacted by these interest rate rises. I can assure you that they are not the ones spending all this discretionary money. I don't see how the raising of Interest Rates on young families (yes, I know that others have Loans too) is going to positively impact our Economy. It's just going to send young families to the wall.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Honest Gaza

I have two Sons who recently purchased homes to live in with their families. One was project Home and the other pre-lived.

They are both impacted by these interest rate rises. I can assure you that they are not the ones spending all this discretionary money. I don't see how the raising of Interest Rates on young families (yes, I know that others have Loans too) is going to positively impact our Economy. It's just going to send young families to the wall.

Agree 100%.

Those who can least afford the rate rises aren't the ones driving inflation. It's affecting the wrong end of town, especially those who have recently bought.

[Charliewool]

Now here’s a constructive idea to solve the gulf between the rich and the battler?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real...ee177eee36?amp

[roKWiz]

Robin Hood of Toorak.

[T3rminator]

Those colour schemes look familiar.

[FairmontGS]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Now here’s a constructive idea to solve the gulf between the rich and the battler?
https://www.news.com.au/finance/real...ee177eee36?amp

Sure, where do I donate?

We have the same in The GSS Inner West, posters plastered over public property, except they threaten a socialist revolution where we are warned that our assets will be "ripped from our fascist hands".

Never seems to happen. Probably forgot to set the alarm for midday or went out for Avo toast instead

[zipping]

Originally Posted by Honest Gaza

I have two Sons who recently purchased homes to live in with their families. One was project Home and the other pre-lived.

They are both impacted by these interest rate rises. I can assure you that they are not the ones spending all this discretionary money. I don't see how the raising of Interest Rates on young families (yes, I know that others have Loans too) is going to positively impact our Economy. It's just going to send young families to the wall.

Primarily inflation is caused by government and in this case supply chain issues have contributed.

The reality is all governments around the world are printing money for their spending as they spend more than they raise in taxes.

Governments don't address their fiscal poilcy issues that contribute to inflation

Therefore it is up to central banks who are independent of gov to so something. Monetary policy is the only tool available to somebody outside government to address the issue.

Address now take pain and possibly a recession
or ignore
and a recession will come with high inflation and we repeat the 70s and the 87-93 period. Inflation in the teens unemployment at 10% and higher.

We (community) keep demanding governments spend more than they tax, there are no free lunches in life, a lesson we seem to never learn.

The positive is that there are still jobs, at least in Vic.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by zipping

The positive is that there are still jobs, at least in Vic.

Tide showing signs of turning in the overall grand scheme of things....