Russia v Ukraine

[FairmontGS]

Inside Putin’s head: Paranoid? Calculating? Obsessed by the conspiracy theories of a rehabilitated Russian fascist?

Putin has raised the alert status of Russia’s nuclear weapons, to the astonishment of foreign policy experts in the West. It is a great gamble and risks not only accident but retaliation for relatively minor setbacks in the war in Ukraine. Not since the Cold War has such an apocalyptic threat existed.

To try to figure out the psychology of a leader is a daunting task, especially when dealing with one who plays his cards close to his chest as Putin. He could simply be raising the alert status of Russia’s nuclear weapons as an extension of his propaganda campaign—in other words, a huge act of misinformation. To the extent this is true, it would be best for the United States not to overreact. Raising the alert status of our own weapons, for example, could well heighten the risk of a nuclear accident.

The more ominous conclusion, however, that we draw from our observation of Putin’s behavior is that it fits logically into what appears to be a disintegration of his personality.

https://thebulletin.org/2022/03/insi...ssian-fascist/

[nstg8a]

Syria is possibly the only conflict of modern times where Russia has used its elite forces first up.

Historically Russia sends its conscripted grunts and derelict equipment into battle as the lead, it chews up the enemies ammunition and resolve while causing no great loss to the Russian armed forces of they’re wiped out.

You can see it in some of the Russians that have been captured or defected. Basic uniforms, no or little insignia. No will to fight.

It seems Putin is being quite restrained so far.

I think there’s a fair bit of hesitation about committing the Russian airforce, the western made land to air hand held missiles are lethal, and the Ukrainians have thousands of them.

Those and the Turkish drones are what’s keeping Ukraine in the fight.

One way or the other, the next 18-24 months is going to get real interesting geopolitically.

[Syndrome]

The seeds of WW3 have been sown. Hopefully the situation is quickly diffused otherwise it will get ugly (picture the Croatian city of Vukovar in November 1991 repeated in many places).

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by DJM83

Still very sad whats going on though, what ever the reasons may or may not be.

Yeh agree. We are all just pawns in the bigger game. The real players are in the bunkers moving chess pieces around. What is their end game? For the record, I think the invasion is wrong, but I don't believe it was "completely unprovoked". I feel for the ordinary people on both sides, they are both being played. And sadly, I can see it coming to our own door step soon enough if things keep going as they are.

Originally Posted by Itsme

I'd pull the trigger myself if I thought it would stop a war and save many lives.

It won't change a thing. Its a regime, you take one and another will step up. You'd have to take over the country and install a new regime yourself. Hmmmm where has that happened before.

A more challenging question is, would you do it if the instigator was on your side?

[Citroënbender]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

…A more challenging question is, would you do it if the instigator was on your side?

Steinbeck posed this moral question in Of Mice and Men, perhaps really a broader study of how we choose our “sides” and what makes “manliness”. I note he left it unconcluded.

[tichman]

[QUOTE=Itsme;6688537]I'd pull the trigger myself if I thought it would stop a war and save many lives.

Hope you were offering the same when Bush and Blair started the illegal war in Iraq under the guise of WOMD that never existed, no sanctions, no war crimes, no nothing from the US's puppets and stooges, our stupid Govt included.
Whilst I am not in favour of the war in Ukraine, the double standards and hypocrisy shown by western Govts and the media in condemning Putin yet staying quiet when the US,UK or the UK created state of Israel decide to bomb civilians, schools, weding party's etc makes me angry. The assassination of an Iraq general with Trumps blessing drew no condemnation from our supposed leaders and media, it's all BS the double standards.
Seems if your white, your right and anyone else it's oh dear, how sad, never mind. Refugees from Ukraine on Poland's borders are being treated differently on the basis of their skin colour, wtf is that about in so called democracy's with supposed Christian faiths?
Remember the Cuban missile crisis came about after the US put missiles in Europe so Khrushchev responded with some of his in Cuba, and Kennedy was prepared to go nuke over it all.... again, double standards, the US wouldnt allow Russian hardware on an Island off the US coast yet somehow the Russians arent supposed to get upset when their neighbour wants to join Nato which is not a trade body or a tourist promotion entity but a straight out military alliance created to confront the former USSR which no longer exists...
Our gutless media dont have the stones to ask our leaders why the double standards and keep pushing the same BS propaganda cos at the end of the day it's all about the dollar...
Biden of that buffoon Boris wont confront Putin on the field as they know it will be political suicide when the body bags start coming home and the voters start asking why are we fighting someone else's war, same thing happed with Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc...

Could all have been avoided if Nato had said no chance for Ukraine to join, rightly or wrongly that's been Putins excuse for kickin off.

[tichman]

Originally Posted by Tonz

I would suspect a lot of Absenteeism countries get their pockets supported by Russia or China.
I know the Uganda, Zimbabwe do.

Whilst many of the in favours are somehow stooges of the US and UK

[tichman]

Originally Posted by FairmontGS

I think the 498 estimate was from Russia, not the US?

The true Russian death toll is probably somewhere in between. If that was a NATO/US invasion force things would be all over bar the shouting with about 40 dead.

Russia still fights like it has no regard for it's own soldiers lives.

Did you hear about the Iraq war? Afghanistan and other US invasions?
Oh and I understand Nato did a bit of bombing in Afghanistan too and what's the name of that US/Nato bloke running Afghanistan now?

All over bar the shouting and 40 dead indeed...

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

For the record, I think the invasion is wrong, but I don't believe it was "completely unprovoked".

Yeah, ****ing Ukrainians and their provoking sovereignty.

Putin is trying to protect Ukraine from Nazis so is trying to kill or remove...um...their democratically elected Jewish president?

No, Putin doesn't want NATO on his doorstep, so he is...um...trying to move his border closer to NATO?

Oh wait - Putin is liberating the oppressed Ukrainian people as they want to be part of Russia, which is why all those oppressed people are fleeing...ummm, to the west and away from Russia?

[Itsme]

[QUOTE=tichman;6688611]

Originally Posted by Itsme

I'd pull the trigger myself if I thought it would stop a war and save many lives.

Hope you were offering the same when Bush and Blair started the illegal war in Iraq under the guise of WOMD that never existed, no sanctions, no war crimes, no nothing from the US's puppets and stooges, our stupid Govt included.
Whilst I am not in favour of the war in Ukraine, the double standards and hypocrisy shown by western Govts and the media in condemning Putin yet staying quiet when the US,UK or the UK created state of Israel decide to bomb civilians, schools, weding party's etc makes me angry. The assassination of an Iraq general with Trumps blessing drew no condemnation from our supposed leaders and media, it's all BS the double standards.
Seems if your white, your right and anyone else it's oh dear, how sad, never mind. Refugees from Ukraine on Poland's borders are being treated differently on the basis of their skin colour, wtf is that about in so called democracy's with supposed Christian faiths?
Remember the Cuban missile crisis came about after the US put missiles in Europe so Khrushchev responded with some of his in Cuba, and Kennedy was prepared to go nuke over it all.... again, double standards, the US wouldnt allow Russian hardware on an Island off the US coast yet somehow the Russians arent supposed to get upset when their neighbour wants to join Nato which is not a trade body or a tourist promotion entity but a straight out military alliance created to confront the former USSR which no longer exists...
Our gutless media dont have the stones to ask our leaders why the double standards and keep pushing the same BS propaganda cos at the end of the day it's all about the dollar...
Biden of that buffoon Boris wont confront Putin on the field as they know it will be political suicide when the body bags start coming home and the voters start asking why are we fighting someone else's war, same thing happed with Vietnam, Iraq, Afghanistan etc...

Could all have been avoided if Nato had said no chance for Ukraine to join, rightly or wrongly that's been Putins excuse for kickin off.

I don't need a history lesson about any other wars or conflicts as I just made a simple comment to some other post.
I think my opinion and beliefs will be different to yours and others so we will leave it there.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Yeah, ****ing Ukrainians and their provoking sovereignty.

Just as an armchair observer, I reckon Ukraine is just a piece on the chess board. Since 1999 (just a little over 20 years), 14 countries have joined NATO, it has moved eastwards towards the Russian border. Ukraine is a big chunk right at their door step. A Russian friendly democratically elected leader of Ukraine was overthrown in a coup in 2014. Look at the bigger picture.

You can see why the Russian regime had a bit of sphincter twitching. That's all I'm saying.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

A Russian friendly democratically elected leader of Ukraine was overthrown in a coup in 2014. Look at the bigger picture.

Wow. And what triggered that coup that removed Russia's puppet?

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mulva

Wow. And what triggered that coup that removed Russia's puppet?

Called the Maidan Revolution. Sure you can look it up.

[Mulva]

I don't need to look it up - interested to know why you think the population rose up, and why that justifies Russia's invasion.

[zilo]

Originally Posted by tichman

Hope you were offering the same when Bush and Blair started the illegal war in Iraq under the guise of WOMD that never existed, no sanctions, no war crimes, no nothing from the US's puppets and stooges, our stupid Govt included.
.

Woops...it as two Bush's...we can include Kuwait in that line up.

I recall the Princess in Kuwait reporting that Iraq troops were throwing babies against concrete walls and splattering them....then 6 weeks later a small column on page 13 saying she made it all up.....

Standard propoganda.....demonise,dehumanize your enemy to get your people to endorse your actions.

[T3rminator]

Originally Posted by Mulva

I don't need to look it up - interested to know why you think the population rose up, and why that justifies Russia's invasion.

Clearly not what I said. You are trying to provoke an argument by twisting my words.

Can you justify a coup because the people protested? That would be like saying its ok to overthrow our democratically elected governments because people protested against mandated vaccines and lock downs.

I'll leave it at that.

[wodahs]

Originally Posted by T3rminator

Just as an armchair observer, I reckon Ukraine is just a piece on the chess board. Since 1999 (just a little over 20 years), 14 countries have joined NATO, it has moved eastwards towards the Russian border. Ukraine is a big chunk right at their door step. A Russian friendly democratically elected leader of Ukraine was overthrown in a coup in 2014. Look at the bigger picture.

You can see why the Russian regime had a bit of sphincter twitching. That's all I'm saying.

so it took the Russian regime at least 8 years to have a bit of sphincter twitching

but i do agree with the fact that i also am just as an armchair observer, I reckon Ukraine is just a piece on the chess board as well and i expect it to get ugly and probably reset things with a lot of lives lost

[JasonACT]

Am I right, that communism seems to have the same problem that (other economic systems have) it always needs to "expand" to survive?

[GO FURTHER]

ScoMo will issue a chilling warning to the nation on Monday, as he announces major moves to stare down a “new arc of autocracy”.

The nation now faces its most dangerous and challenging security environment in 80 years, and reveal major upgrades to our military capability.

The Prime Minister will also announce in the speech a new $10 billion submarine base will be built on Australia’s east coast to support future nuclear-powered submarines.

Australia will be one of few countries to field Tomahawk missiles, the extended-range version of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, and other sophisticated strike capabilities.

Through the $1 billion Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, we will be able to make our own weapons on our own soil.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe...b92d8409d0b5ec

[4vxc]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

ScoMo will issue a chilling warning to the nation on Monday, as he announces major moves to stare down a “new arc of autocracy”.

The nation now faces its most dangerous and challenging security environment in 80 years, and reveal major upgrades to our military capability.

The Prime Minister will also announce in the speech a new $10 billion submarine base will be built on Australia’s east coast to support future nuclear-powered submarines.

Australia will be one of few countries to field Tomahawk missiles, the extended-range version of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, and other sophisticated strike capabilities.

Through the $1 billion Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, we will be able to make our own weapons on our own soil.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe...b92d8409d0b5ec

What could possibly go wrong
I had to laugh when he said that we have sent our prayers but also our ammunition, I wonder if Scotty came up with that line himself

[danzvtil]

I hope the tomahawks are non lethal. The pearl clutchers will loose their minds if not.

[nstg8a]

Originally Posted by GO FURTHER

ScoMo will issue a chilling warning to the nation on Monday, as he announces major moves to stare down a “new arc of autocracy”.

The nation now faces its most dangerous and challenging security environment in 80 years, and reveal major upgrades to our military capability.

The Prime Minister will also announce in the speech a new $10 billion submarine base will be built on Australia’s east coast to support future nuclear-powered submarines.

Australia will be one of few countries to field Tomahawk missiles, the extended-range version of the Joint Air-to-Surface Standoff Missile, and other sophisticated strike capabilities.

Through the $1 billion Guided Weapons and Explosive Ordinance Enterprise, we will be able to make our own weapons on our own soil.

https://www.news.com.au/world/europe...b92d8409d0b5ec

You didn’t read that before you posted it did you…

[nstg8a]

For those saying that Putin is invading because he doesn’t want nato on his border, but invading Ukraine will actually put him on Natos border go have a look at a map…

Russia having control of Ukraine stops nato from extending their “defensive “ missile systems even further. (Think Israel’s iron dome) one article I read said a missile base in the Ukraine would drop the missile flight time to Moscow to just 5-7 minutes.

[John 13]

Originally Posted by 4vxc

What could possibly go wrong
I had to laugh when he said that we have sent our prayers but also our ammunition, I wonder if Scotty came up with that line himself

Of course the forthcoming federal election would have nothing to do with this grandstanding. Never miss an opportunity to spend tax payers money on electioneering, save the parties funds until the election is actually called.

[Trevor 57]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

For those saying that Putin is invading because he doesn’t want nato on his border, but invading Ukraine will actually put him on Natos border go have a look at a map…

Russia having control of Ukraine stops nato from extending their “defensive “ missile systems even further. (Think Israel’s iron dome) one article I read said a missile base in the Ukraine would drop the missile flight time to Moscow to just 5-7 minutes.

and that there is why Putin is dangerous. If he and Russia lived a normal existence then they wouldn't be worried about someone dropping a bomb on their head. Paranoia at its finest

[Crazy Dazz]

Let's be clear, Puttin's designs on Ukraine, are all about access and the Black Sea. The same thing Russia has been going after for the last 500 years.
The problem Russia has always had, is that all those southern territories they claim aren't Russian, and they keep rebelling and wanting to break away.

It's entirely possible that Russia will agree to "Peace" and withdraw, provided he gets what he wants.

He wants Ukraine and the world to accept Russian "sovereignty" over the Crimean Peninsula.
This preserves his major Naval Base at Sevastopol
Gives Russia control over the Sea of Azov
Protects access to the River Don and Volga-Dona canal, which is a major shipping route into Russia.

He wants Ukraine to guarantee supply to the Crimean
When Russia occupied Crimea, Ukraine shut down the canal that carries fresh water.

He wants control over the pipelines
Most of the Oil and Gas that Russia sells to the West flows through Pipelines in Ukraine. He wants to control those and deny Ukraine the right to profit from pipelines crossing their nation.

He wants defacto control over Ukraine's Oil & Gas terminals and effectively bans on further expansion
This would keep Ukraine dependent on Russian Gas
Also eliminate the possibility of Ukraine becoming a major LNG importer and supplying that gas to Europe.
Also effectively stops all proposals for pipelines under the black sea.

He wants to keep Ukraine out of the EU
Puttin is more concerned with expansion of the EU than NATO.

[Mulva]

Originally Posted by nstg8a

For those saying that Putin is invading because he doesn’t want nato on his border, but invading Ukraine will actually put him on Natos border go have a look at a map…

Russia having control of Ukraine stops nato from extending their “defensive “ missile systems even further. (Think Israel’s iron dome) one article I read said a missile base in the Ukraine would drop the missile flight time to Moscow to just 5-7 minutes.

If that was NATO's aim, why are there no nukes in NATO members like Poland, Slovakia, Romania, Lithunia etc, all of which are much much closer to Russia than the nearest nukes in Turkey and Italy.

And before you say fixed missile silos are so 1980s and redundant these days (I agree), also redundant is the assumption that missiles will be sent from a landmass.

All of which also ignores the fact that Ukraine should be free to make their own choices, whatever those choices may be. Why should Russia decide if a free country gets to join the EU if they wish, or join NATO if they wish. Do you agree that Ukraine and any other nation should be free to choose their own destiny within the confines of international law and common decency? If Indonesia don't like our alliance with the US, you're cool with them invading WA to put some distance between us (*assuming WA has not yet declared independance from the rest of Australia at that point in time)?

I supported the invasion of Iraq at the time based on what we were being told, which turned out to be a crock of **** (problem for Saddam was he spoke so much **** up until then that when he was telling the truth about having no WMDs no one believed him). Since then I am not even close to being one of those "America **** Yeah!" loons when it comes to US meddling in other countries affairs - both US and Russia should let free countries make their own decisions.

Looking at this invasion objectively, all things considered, I cannot see anything that justifies Russia's invasion. Being objective does not mean being neutral - you can look at the different points of view and still determine on side is in the right and the other is totally wrong

[zilo]

Originally Posted by Trevor 57

and that there is why Putin is dangerous. If he and Russia lived a normal existence then they wouldn't be worried about someone dropping a bomb on their head. Paranoia at its finest

Clearly you have no idea about the people of Russia or the reason for the conflict apart from the rhetoric.

[Mulva]

So what are the reasons that justify Russia's invasion?

[T3rminator]

A tactical genius. May just be the commander and chief again in a couple of years.

Trump jokes US should 'put the Chinese flag' on F-22 fighter jets and 'bomb the s---' out of Russia: report
https://news.yahoo.com/trump-jokes-u...135052840.html