The rising price (and associated costs) of Oil / Petrol Discussion Thread. - Page 9

SB076 · 17-09-2008, 08:50 AM

Yep I am currently thinking that a lot of things are about to be revalued... down. I dont think the world, particularly western society has as much $$$ as it thought it had (just my opinion nothing I have nothing to back it up) Good news is that due to the current uncertainty oil dropped last night its now approx. US $91 and our dollar rose to US $0.80

sandmanls1 · 17-09-2008, 08:54 AM

guys it takes a while for the drop in prices to flow through, don't forget we are tied to the Singapore MoGAs price. It is not that simple it you want to understand oil trading and supply / demand economics it is a week long course. Lots of other things tied in there as well such as futures / swaps etc. Easy to make general assumptions and statements. I think you can view the submission to the ACCC online from the oil companies in response to the weekly price cycle.

JPFS1 · 17-09-2008, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Buddy 1

I so Agree with you as if we Look back to when the Crude Oil Price was at the same levels as it is now the Bowser Price was approx 40 cents per litre cheaper than it is now.

So WTF is going on?

Yes is the Lower Dollar Value however that was also about the same back when crude was less than $100.00 a Barrel.

Taking everything into account it should be approx $1.10 a litre for 91 Octane atm.

So again WTF

When the Barrel price was on its steep rising cycle we saw this reflected in the bowser price which was fair enough in a way Coz that was out of peoples control however once the barrel price started to fall we should have also seen the Pump price fall constantly as the barrel price fell just as it rose with the barrel price constantly.

Someone is making Huge Profits atm.

By the way we get most of our Domestic crude from Bass Straight anyway so why do we set our price on the Middle east prices etc...

Yeah a world Economy, it sure is working well NOT

We were better off when we ran our own Economy lol STUFF the WORLD.

Wrong on all counts sorry.

Did you ignore the numbers above?

Look at the break down... How can it be 1.10 as you say that's where it should be???? That's where you want it to be, but simple maths says it cant.

Quote:

Total of ~49.143 cents direct tax + 73.65 cent in raw product and service station margin, making a total of ~122.8 cents!

12c above where you think it should be.

We do not get our domestic supply from bass straight. We can hardly supply out own because Australia's oil is of high quality light sweet, our refineries aren't setup to manage the stuff, we have to export it, which suits them because they make a nice premium because of quality. We have to import most of our oil (Heavy low quality, cheaper to import and that's what we can process).

Hope that helps.

Buddy 1 · 17-09-2008, 09:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sandmanls1

guys it takes a while for the drop in prices to flow through, don't forget we are tied to the Singapore MoGAs price. It is not that simple it you want to understand oil trading and supply / demand economics it is a week long course. Lots of other things tied in there as well such as futures / swaps etc. Easy to make general assumptions and statements. I think you can view the submission to the ACCC online from the oil companies in response to the weekly price cycle.

This is the first time in my life I have seen the barrel price drop over a period of months & not seen the Pump price follow within a few weeks etc....

It does not take long for the pump price to rise when the barrel price does even though would still be reserves of fuel at Stations, depots & Refinery's

This is just not fair & very greedy of the Oil Companies in the main & some servo's as well.

We just want a Fair Go & are sick to Death of Arrogant Greedy People!

Fev · 17-09-2008, 09:05 AM

well ill wait for this afternoon for the price hike to see what happens.. i hope i didnt screw myself by filling up yesterday arvo with a full tank of 98@1.58 a litre.. or was it 1.68 - all i know is it cost me $92 to fill up :(

Buddy 1 · 17-09-2008, 09:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPFS1

Did you ignore the numbers above?

Yes I did, I am simply looking back at History

$1.00 rise or fall in Barrel price should show as 1 cent a litre at the Pump or so the Experts have said recently.

So when the Barrel price was $160.00 we were paying here $1.65 or so a Litre.

Now the barrel price is $93.00 so the Pump price should be 67 Cents Less if the Dollar value was the same & if the experts are Correct.

Of Course the Dollar has Devalued however at 80 Cents or so to the US Dollar it is not that Low Compared to the last 10 years if you look back.

And Fuel was Never this High in Comparison to the Barrel price.

However I would still be Happy to use your Figures & pay $1.22 a Litre because atm it is $1.55 a Litre here.

F6T · 17-09-2008, 09:18 AM

Last night, BP Ultimate was $1.79/lt. This is as high as it has been down here (Tas) that I can recall - yet the price of oil has dropped to the low 90's US a barrell.

I drove off in disgust without filling up. Makes me so mad.

Fev · 17-09-2008, 09:39 AM

kinda makes you wish there was a phone line you could call and abuse someone for it

Bent8 · 17-09-2008, 07:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPFS1

Bent8

I'm not arguing with you on the fact that the $US dollar should be worthless... how can it not be when the US is in a financial meltdown.. their currency is not backed by anything tangible, so they just print more as you say. Good to see that they didn't raise rates over there last night as a knee jerk reaction.

By my point which i raised which you quoted, was the unexplained turnaround in the US$. My charts aren't lying... the US$ has completely turned around against the AUD the EUR the GBP and CHF since around July this year, when the world markets started to tank! These are the most common traded currency pairs on the Forex.

There is something very sinister going on here, it just makes no sense!

USD/AUD

USD/EUR

USD/GBP

USD/CHF

I agree it is strange but have you looked at the long term USD trends?...

There are rumours of an October crash, probably because both the 1929 crash and the 1987 Black Monday event both happened in October!

Crude Oil is $92/barrel, so why did I just pay $1.54 (98RON) for fuel?

Someone is making a killing off us, that's for sure.

JPFS1 · 17-09-2008, 09:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bent8

I agree it is strange but have you looked at the long term USD trends?...

There are rumours of an October crash, probably because both the 1929 crash and the 1987 Black Monday event both happened in October!

Crude Oil is $92/barrel, so why did I just pay $1.54 (98RON) for fuel?

Someone is making a killing off us, that's for sure.

Hi Bent

No, they're only 1 year charts, that's not considered long term. More so, medium.

I dont like looking at events so long in the past, major differences in fiscal policies etc...

Technical analysts like to consider that it's possible because they look to in the past to predict the future and can make their charts create signals that appeared in the times of those events.

I don't buy it..

For one, Gold would be rocketing as a hedge...?

Your question about the price... as mentioned already, I've shown the base price which includes only the raw product + excise/GST and servo margin is around 1.22 at the moment.

The difference between that and what we're paying at the pump is going mainly to government (again), & Oil companies (again).

Must also understand that as these emissions laws tighten and Oil companies are required to create cleaner fuels, this will cost them in the refining and development process. This will also be passed onto the consumer to recoup their extra costs.

HUNTER8 · 17-09-2008, 09:43 PM

Petrol pricing really is simple to understand.
Barrel price goes up petrol price goes up.
Exchange rate changes petrol price goes up.
Comination of the above, petrol price goes up.
Both of the above go down, petrol price goes up cos the oil producing countries aren't producing enough oil.
Barrell price goes down, exchange rates improve and there is enough oil being produced, the government introduces a carbon tax which increases the price.
Quite simple really.

68XTFairmont · 17-09-2008, 10:15 PM

It honestly doesn't matter here in SA at the moment. On my way to work tonight I needed Gas, Couldn't get any on the way to work and the Petrol Guage was looking pretty dismal too. So I call into the last Servo on the way to work (Shell) NO GAS, NO UNLEADED but they do have some really over inflated V Power. If I worked closer to home I would buy a push bike, If I didn't work strange shifts I would spend an extra 3 hours a day on public transport. I don't work close to home and I already do 12 hr mixed shifts so it looks like I am gonna stop and pay for the V Power in the morning and keep whinging on here about it.

HUNTER8 · 17-09-2008, 10:18 PM

Oh yeah, forgot to add that one, if the price is tooooo cheap........run out!

gz1 · 17-09-2008, 11:32 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 68XTFairmont

So I call into the last Servo on the way to work (Shell) NO GAS, NO UNLEADED but they do have some really over inflated V Power.--- so it looks like I am gonna stop and pay for the V Power in the morning and keep whinging on here about it.

Nahh you'll be right.
You will find that in the morning the discount cycle is over and Unleaded and probably gas would have magically re-appeared.

vztrt · 18-09-2008, 07:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JPFS1

I don't buy it..

For one, Gold would be rocketing as a hedge...?

Apparenty (according to the ABC finance report) Gold rose the highest it ever has in a day.

JPFS1 · 18-09-2008, 08:56 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vztrt

Apparenty (according to the ABC finance report) Gold rose the highest it ever has in a day.

yes, as did OIL (not necessarily most in a day, but significant rise), because these are real tangible assets with no liabilities attached and the financial world saw them as the safe haven finally, as they should.

The SEC also announced new legislation that says blind shorting is now illegal! So covering shorts would have played a big part in the rebound. This is great news, something I hope the locals adopt also.

Bent8 · 19-09-2008, 01:29 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by vztrt

Apparenty (according to the ABC finance report) Gold rose the highest it ever has in a day.

That's true, but don't forget that Gold is priced in US dollars which is in rapid decline. So in essence, when you see Gold prices suddenly rise, most of that is because of USD devaluation from the huge cash injections and bank bailouts by the US Fed.

Buddy 1 · 19-09-2008, 05:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Bent8

That's true, but don't forget that Gold is priced in US dollars which is in rapid decline. So in essence, when you see Gold prices suddenly rise, most of that is because of USD devaluation from the huge cash injections and bank bailouts by the US Fed.

Nah wrong Matey, Gold has been falling as well until yesterday when it rose sharply because of many People Investing in it as a safer option to other Stocks.

People have also started to buy Oil stocks for the same reason & this is why we have seen the Oil go back up.