Twilight for the traditional ICE automobile

[asagaai]

[QUOTE=GasoLane;6549467]You do realise that EV's aren't that new don't you?

From the article......

"In 1901, 38 per cent of the cars were electric, and 20 per cent or so were petrol, and in the middle, there was the outgoing technology of steam," says technologist and historian David Kirsch.

"If you'd asked the great experts of their age in 1900 which technology would come to dominate the motor-based transportation, I think most learned people would have said electricity."

I remember as a 5 year old in Armidale in 1970 listening to the electric thrum of electric carts that delivered milk. Along either side and below the flat bed were racks of batteries connected. Driver sat in front in open with a small roof, long flatbed tray with racks holding the milk behind him.

But the milk was in glass bottles that were recycled, and had that thick plug of full cream at the top of the bottle that had to be scooped out to let the milk flow.

And I remember watching black and white TV shows back then that showed rubbish being dumped into the ocean and concerns even then about the environment.

Nothing is new- recycling, electrics, concerns etc etc

[kypez]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

You do realise that EV's aren't that new don't you?

Worth a Watch. Aussie bloke putting an EV together. He'd been driving it for 30 years 1968!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWcy2HgTjCA

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by kypez

Worth a Watch. Aussie bloke putting an EV together. He'd been driving it for 30 years 1968!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NWcy2HgTjCA

Love the 'ignition' key

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

It's sooner than you think.

Sydney Waratah trains made by China, we have the capability to build trains in Melbourne

Canberra's Trams or Light Rail cars are Chinese as well..

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Canberra's Trams or Light Rail cars are Chinese as well..

COVID and the worsening relationship with China have given the federal government a bit of a wake-up call in this regard and they're making moves to prevent this but whether the state governments play ball is another question.

If you think about it from state government perspective, what benefit is there for NSW or ACT to have their trains and trams built in Melbourne? It's more expensive and they're not getting any benefits out of it.

I'm not sure if NSW has locomotive manufacturing capabilities.

The VIC Government even did this with the new high capacity metro train - built by China, WTF?

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

COVID and the worsening relationship with China have given the federal government a bit of a wake-up call in this regard and they're making moves to prevent this but whether the state governments play ball is another question.

If you think about it from state government perspective, what benefit is there for NSW or ACT to have their trains and trams built in Melbourne? It's more expensive and they're not getting any benefits out of it.

I'm not sure if NSW has locomotive manufacturing capabilities.

The VIC Government even did this with the new high capacity metro train - built by China, WTF?

Don't worry Franco, the Federal Gov's ARTC has been contracting out all there heavy rail work out to John Holland, now a half Cinese owned company.

NSW had Commeng for years building trains and diesels in Granville. They built the older great "Comfortable" Interurban trains that run to Newcastle, Kiama and Lithgow now being replaced by Chinese crap designed (mentioned earlier) by someone who has never travelled on a train.
I see Sydney buses here almost everyday on the freeway and I'm 700km from there. Built in Melbourne.

[roKWiz]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

You do realise that EV's aren't that new don't you?

From the article......

"In 1901, 38 per cent of the cars were electric, and 20 per cent or so were petrol, and in the middle, there was the outgoing technology of steam," says technologist and historian David Kirsch.

"If you'd asked the great experts of their age in 1900 which technology would come to dominate the motor-based transportation, I think most learned people would have said electricity."


https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-...bMhO8U5odiQ998

And more recently.....all the homebuilt VW Golf, (US Rabbit) conversions of the 70's and 80's.
Aswell as the electric launches on lake Windermere in the UK, electric milk floats and Duck Flat river launches of South Australia.

Yeah hardly anything new.

[kmav23]

https://leaderpost.com/pmn/business-...nswer-to-tesla

VW Plans to Be Battery Juggernaut in $29 Billion Answer to Tesla

(Bloomberg) — Volkswagen AG is stepping up efforts to unseat Tesla Inc. as the dominant electric-car maker with a plan to build six battery factories in Europe and global investments in charging stations.

VW already has agreements for two battery plants and is exploring four additional sites for a total capacity of 240 gigawatt-hours by the end of the decade, it said Monday. The push will cost some $29 billion and would make VW the world’s second-largest cell producer after China’s Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Ltd., according to BloombergNEF.

“E-mobility has won the race,” Chief Executive Officer Herbert Diess said during a webcast. “Our goal is to secure a pole position in the global scaling of batteries.”

Batteries have emerged as a key component in the electric-car race, and VW’s decision to step into large-scale cell manufacturing is a break from relying on suppliers. After years of trailing Tesla and the cathartic experience of the diesel-emissions cheating crisis, VW has switched gears to reorganize a sprawling behemoth from the ground up. The company now boasts the industry’s most comprehensive EV, with intentions to add about 50 purely battery-powered vehicles to its lineup by 2030.


VW’s battery factories will have a capacity of 40 gigawatt-hours each, and the company is looking for partners for most of them. The carmaker dropped a previous plan to join forces with Northvolt AB for its site in Salzgitter, Germany and will make batteries there on its own. VW plans to construct a factory in France, Spain or Portugal by 2026 and one in Poland, Slovakia or the Czech Republic by 2027, plus another two sites at European locations that have yet to be identified.

“This is a huge announcement,” said James Frith, an analyst at BloombergNEF. “Building 240 gigawatt-hours of capacity will require around $29 billion in capex based on today’s manufacturing plants and technology.”

Sweden’s Northvolt will remain a key partner, winning a $14 billion order to supply cells to premium-car brands like Audi and Porsche. VW will boost its stake in the closely held startup from about 20% to an undisclosed higher level. VW didn’t elaborate on the status of existing agreements with SK Innovation Co. Ltd. and Samsung SDI.

VW aims to at least double its share of deliveries that are fully electric this year, which could bring it within striking distance to Tesla’s EV sales. VW’s ID.3 hatchback and the Porsche Taycan based on dedicated underpinnings have stacked up well. The manufacturer plans to make some 26 million fully electric cars by 2030, highlighting concerns over battery cell costs, capacity constraints as well as raw material shortages.

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Emulating Tesla as well as General Motors Co. with a dedicated battery event, dubbed “Power Day,” VW during the two-hour event gave the deepest dive yet on its strategy to beat a path to a future selling millions of EVs.

Charging Push

VW will invest 400 million euros ($477 million) by 2025 to build out much-needed charging infrastructure in Europe, after the region overtook China in EV sales last year.

Fast-charging in Europe will grow five-fold to 18,000 stations, helped by cooperations with BP in the U.K., Iberdrola in Spain and Enel in Italy. In North America, VW is adding 3,500 stations this year and 17,000 points in China by 2025.

VW will offer bidirectional charging from 2022, in a move that would change the way power grids operate by allowing car batteries to store excess energy and feed it back to the network in times of peak demand.

Cutting Cell Costs

VW plans to switch to new ‘unified’ cell design from 2023 to as much as halve battery costs. The company is also researching solid-state batteries that it says are cheaper to assemble and allow for faster charging.

“We will use our economies of scale,” said Thomas Schmall, VW’s head of technology. Battery costs will fall “significantly” below 100 euros per kilowatt-hour, he said.

Securing Supply

Cell materials are in high demand and account for the biggest share of a battery’s cost, so securing supply before bottlenecks arise is key.

Nickel is Tesla’s biggest concern for scaling production of lithium-iron battery cells, CEO Elon Musk said last month.

VW is bolstering recycling efforts and is focusing on partnerships to ensure adequate supply, it said. Its deal with Northvolt is similar to Tesla’s tie-up with Panasonic Corp., which dates back to 2009.

Rival Plans

As carmakers scale up EV offerings, Tesla and other new entrants like Nio Inc. are stepping up their battery efforts as well.

China’s CATL is targeting close to 500 gigawatt-hours capacity by 2025, BNEF’s Frith said.

Tesla expects to add a battery-cell factory to its car-assembly plant under construction near Berlin. The site will initially have a capacity of more than 100 gigawatt-hours a year and eventually ramp up to as much as 250 gigawatt-hours, Musk said during a battery conference in November, without saying when the facility would be up and running.

[GasoLane]

As most people know, Electric cars are not that new...............

From the article

"In 1901, 38 per cent of the cars were electric, and 20 per cent or so were petrol, and in the middle, there was the outgoing technology of steam," says technologist and historian David Kirsch.

"If you'd asked the great experts of their age in 1900 which technology would come to dominate the motor-based transportation, I think most learned people would have said electricity."

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-05-...bMhO8U5odiQ998

[ryeman]

BMW has said that the last ICE Mini will be made in just 4 years.
The boards of control of purse strings will look at the emissions requirements coming up and make a fundamental decision on financial survival.
Being late to the future isn’t a good survival strategy when the dark legislative clouds are already gathering.

[Foggy]

Interesting article about VW and battery production.

[kmav23]

EVs prices will dramatically drop by 2025 and close to Ice car prices as battery costs fall due to mass production and technology advancements. All the car manufacturers are investing big time in making their own batteries. Batteries are going be in huge demands for cars, boats and all type of things such as home storage.

[ryeman]

Maybe an affordable light aircraft one day.

[b0son]

Originally Posted by kmav23

EVs prices will dramatically drop by 2025 and close to Ice car prices as battery costs fall due to mass production and technology advancements.

I'll be surprised if that's the case given the slowing rate of energy density improvement and price decline. If BEVs make up a substantial slice of market share, that's huge demand for Li ion, which might put a price floor under batteries.

[kmav23]

Originally Posted by b0son

I'll be surprised if that's the case given the slowing rate of energy density improvement and price decline. If BEVs make up a substantial slice of market share, that's huge demand for Li ion, which might put a price floor under batteries.

The game changer is solid state batteries if they ever figure that out.

Current battery chemistry is is improving every year as long with economies of scale, its a matter of time.

All the money, resources and smartest people are working on batteries now.

[GasoLane]

Originally Posted by kmav23

The game changer is solid state batteries if they ever figure that out.

Current battery chemistry is is improving every year as long with economies of scale, its a matter of time.

All the money, resources and smartest people are working on batteries now.

Will these solid state batteries be (a lot) lighter than the current ones?

If not there's no way that trucks will be using them.

[Vesper Martini]

Originally Posted by kmav23

The game changer is solid state batteries if they ever figure that out.

Current battery chemistry is is improving every year as long with economies of scale, its a matter of time.

All the money, resources and smartest people are working on batteries now.

LOL "All the Money"
People like you believe there is a Money tree...
even if they can work through the issues SSBs will cost too much to produce.
$$$ is everything

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by kmav23

The game changer is solid state batteries if they ever figure that out.

Current battery chemistry is is improving every year as long with economies of scale, its a matter of time.

All the money, resources and smartest people are working on batteries now.

The “game changer” will be this....
https://www.caradvice.com.au/903101/...les-from-2021/

https://thedriven.io/2021/03/17/tax-...e-by-july/amp/

And that will be tip of the iceberg!
2.5c per km will rapidly be ... 5c, 10c, 50c... $1.00!

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

Will these solid state batteries be (a lot) lighter than the current ones?

If not there's no way that trucks will be using them.

Thanks to the solid electrolyte having a smaller footprint, solid-state batteries promise some two to ten times the energy density of lithium-ion batteries of the same size. That means more powerful batteries without extra space, or more compact battery packs without compromising on power. That means powerful and longer range electric cars or more compact and lighter EVs. They are also expected to charge faster.

Better efficiency and energy density means solid-state batteries don't require the cooling and control components that lithium-ion batteries do either, and that means a smaller overall footprint along with more chassis freedom and less weight. It’s little wonder that solid state is most quoted by performance car manufacturers; Bentley sees the technology as its primary way to make electrification work for them.

Safety is another advantage solid-state batteries claim to offer. Exothermic reactions in lithium-ion batteries can cause them to get hot, expand and potentially rupture spilling flammable and hazardous liquid electrolyte; in some cases this has caused minor explosions. Having a solid electrolyte effectively bypasses this problem.

Finally, the use of the solid-state electrolyte means the batteries can withstand more discharge and charge cycles than lithium-ion batteries, as they don’t have to suffer electrode corrosion caused by chemicals in the liquid electrolyte or the build up of solid layers in the electrolyte that deteriorates battery life. Solid-state batteries could be re-charged up to seven times more, giving them a potential lifespan of ten years as opposed to the couple of years a lithium-ion battery is expected to effectively last for.

https://www.whichcar.com.au/car-advi...relate-to-cars

The down sides are at the cost right now and the roadblocks at the atomic level.
Toyota and other makes including VW are investing heavy in SS Batteries. Toyota have a partnership with Panasonic (supplier to Telsa) and I expect big things to come out of that. Toyota are known to be tight fisted (more to do with their philosophy - think nemawashi) and won't invest in anything unless there is almost a guarantee of a good ROI.

https://www.autoblog.com/2020/12/19/...rototype-2021/

Trucks, not sure really, thinking it might depend on the use. I guess smaller metro based trucks could be BEV (Scania and Volvo have them) and longer distance might be Hydrogen based (Daimler, Hyundai, Volvo). Wait and see i guess.

[Charliewool]

Ahhhh... But how does Govco know how many kilometres we travel in our new beaut EV, for tax?
An honour system??
Don’t be silly!.. Apps are already built in your baby to do the reporting for you....
Big Brother... eat ya heart out

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

The “game changer” will be this....

https://www.caradvice.com.au/903101/...les-from-2021/



https://thedriven.io/2021/03/17/tax-...e-by-july/amp/



And that will be tip of the iceberg!

2.5c per km will rapidly be ... 5c, 10c, 50c... $1.00!

I did the maths earlier. You need to use 5.9 litres/100 to pay less in fuel excise. I highly doubt it will increase as you have suggested.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Ahhhh... But how does Govco know how many kilometres we travel in our new beaut EV, for tax?
An honour system??
Don’t be silly!.. Apps are already built in your baby to do the reporting for you....
Big Brother... eat ya heart out

Tesla are very secretive with their data. No way they'll share it with govt.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Yellow_Festiva]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Canberra's Trams or Light Rail cars are Chinese as well..

Yes... I recognised the accent in the carriage clatter

[Charliewool]

Originally Posted by kypez

Tesla are very secretive with their data. No way they'll share it with govt.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

Ah ok... So Can I disconnect the speedo cable? Or better still, use the battery drill trick to wind back odometer?... (maybe a rebate possible?)
I realise, I’m being silly, but seriously HOW are govco going to know your kms?

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Ah ok... So Can I disconnect the speedo cable? Or better still, use the battery drill trick to wind back odometer?... (maybe a rebate possible?)

I realise, I’m being silly, but seriously HOW are govco going to know your kms?

Well, they might introduce a pink slip type system like we have for NSW. Every year, the kms are given to the RMS.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

The “game changer” will be this....
https://www.caradvice.com.au/903101/...les-from-2021/

https://thedriven.io/2021/03/17/tax-...e-by-july/amp/

And that will be tip of the iceberg!
2.5c per km will rapidly be ... 5c, 10c, 50c... $1.00!

Yes, I don't think GovCo really thought this one through and I bet it will be revised, PHEV cars still have petrol, so are these drivers then paying double tax?

[kypez]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Yes, I don't think GovCo really thought this one through and I bet it will be revised, PHEV cars still have petrol, so are these drivers then paying double tax?

PHEV and Hybrids in general are supposed to be 2 cents per kms. Probably hits them more as after the first 30-60 kms, it's all petrol.

Sent from my Pixel 5 using Tapatalk

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Charliewool

Ah ok... So Can I disconnect the speedo cable? Or better still, use the battery drill trick to wind back odometer?... (maybe a rebate possible?)
I realise, I’m being silly, but seriously HOW are govco going to know your kms?

Probably some type of self reporting system, that will also involve random spot checks and heavy fines for non-compliance?

[IanC]

In Singapore they have a government meter on the dashboard. I expect it will use GPS to calculate kilometrage. Knowing Singapore the penalties will be draconian if you tamper with it.

[Falcon SXR8]

Originally Posted by IanC

In Singapore they have a government meter on the dashboard. I expect it will use GPS to calculate kilometrage. Knowing Singapore the penalties will be draconian if you tamper with it.

Thats good the government here can use it for road tax and as a bonus, automatic speeding fines, future is bright my friends