Covid 19 -

[MercuryT]

Being Tassie I hope restrictions are gradually lifted as reported asap.

I trust medical advice as not my area of knowledge, but whilst limiting deaths and virus spread is obviously extremely important, so is working people's livelihood and maintaining some level of economy for the future.

Hard to balance no doubt, so I certainly don't envy those being entrusted to make the call on what is best.......

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by GasoLane

But ASX doesn't ask for proof of age. (Franco only looks about 15 )

I still get asked by security there for ID trying to go through the gaming area

I'm starting to age though, hair line is starting to go and the wrinkles are starting to appear on the forehead.

Most people pick me as between 50-65 before they meet me though because I have the persona of a jaded baby boomer holding out for the pension for the last 2 years and my online name is a reference from someone in Melbourne who rose to fame in the 1980s

[ford71V8]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

I still get asked by security there for ID trying to go through the gaming area

I'm starting to age though, hair line is starting to go and the wrinkles are starting to appear on the forehead.

Most people pick me as between 50-65 before they meet me though because I have the persona of a jaded baby boomer holding out for the pension for the last 2 years and my online name is a reference from someone in Melbourne who rose to fame in the 1980s

In my eyes you are your avatar - stop spoiling that please

[JasonACT]

I pick you as being 35ish. I say - change the avatar too.

[MITCHAY]

I think the stages that have been announced are enough to wedge the hawks of both sides personally. I know recently it's all over the shop but I still believe most Aussies are moderate especially since we have a better safety net than other countries.

From what I understand, the states have agreed to the stages more or less it is about when they go for it.

To compare to the IT world you start small with less effort and then evaluate the effect it has each thing you do.

If you go big bang it is hard to know what works or not. And in this situation we need to understand that.

So I reckon we have about 2-4 weeks between stages so we can wind back or go earlier.

It is fantasy to just open everything up just as much as it is to keep everything locked down.

I know certain people are saying not that many have not died but they have not died because we made that possible. This is what annoys me about modelling, some take it literally.

[JasonACT]

[marty351]

So what's the news about this govco covid monitoring app? Do we still have to download it?

[PhilT2]

Some countries and US states have released figures showing how much higher their death rate (from all causes) is compared to the average of the last few years. Most show a rate higher than that which would be produced by just adding the covid figures to the normal death rate.

If these figures stand up to scrutiny then the "it's just the flu" people are going to look a bit stupid. So are the ones who claim that the deaths from covid are being exaggerated. One exception is Sweden where the death rate is lower than normal. Too early to draw any firm conclusions yet; for many countries this is far from over.

[Franco Cozzo]

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

[JasonACT]

Yeah, it's a guess as good as any. China (as much as I love their cheap tech, and as much as I loathe most else) is taking steps to rectify the problem with a vaccine, save face?, who cares. Get it done already.

[XR Martin]

Still think it will be a long time before the MCG is full.

[prydey]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

I'm more than happy for social distancing practice to stay. It's nice having 1.5m of personal space at the shops etc

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

Still think it will be a long time before the MCG is full.

Hang tight.

[marty351]

Originally Posted by XR Martin

Still think it will be a long time before the MCG is full.

Cha-ching$

(Pun intended)

[Charliewool]

We are getting a little bit of normality back.. La Mona Grita (my “local”) opened yesterday after 8-9 weeks... Although with 1/2 capacity, strict disinfecting rules, and social distancing.
Hopefully beaches open soon for our doggies sakes!
Seems we’re doing ok overall, going by below...

https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/...irus-covid-19/

[hayseed]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

Mate. it'll never go back to being NORMALThe World as We Know It has changed Forever.

As My eldest Daughter said to Me the other day "Daddy We're Living History at the Moment" I think a Lot of Work & Business Practices as well as Shopping & Dining out Habits have forever changed.

Just My 2 cents worth.

[zipping]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Some countries and US states have released figures showing how much higher their death rate (from all causes) is compared to the average of the last few years. Most show a rate higher than that which would be produced by just adding the covid figures to the normal death rate.

If these figures stand up to scrutiny then the "it's just the flu" people are going to look a bit stupid. So are the ones who claim that the deaths from covid are being exaggerated. One exception is Sweden where the death rate is lower than normal. Too early to draw any firm conclusions yet; for many countries this is far from over.

Can you post a link?

Just been looking at Sweden and theirs is about average, 29220, 27962, 28822, 29864, 26604 and this year to date 28461

got that off twitter might not be accurate, note jan 1 to end April 15 numbers

[Franco Cozzo]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Mate. it'll never go back to being NORMALThe World as We Know It has changed Forever.

As My eldest Daughter said to Me the other day "Daddy We're Living History at the Moment" I think a Lot of Work & Business Practices as well as Shopping & Dining out Habits have forever changed.

Just My 2 cents worth.

If that's the case I feel like the jaded old man I portray who grew up in the 1960s and thinks 1979 was the best year ever, take me back to 2019

I do welcome the initiatives from businesses who have shifted to online with gusto, I just wish people would stop using Australia Post for freight, took 3 weeks for Australia Post to get something from Sydney to Melbourne via road

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

Depends on what you call normal. Unemployment predicted to hit 9% even after the lockdown is lifted. How long it stays that high is up to the govt; if they throw enough money at the problem it will go away. Big tax cuts and lots of govt spending will always produce a boom. Produces lots of govt debt too but just pretend that doesn't matter. Worked for DJT.

Airlines say 2 years at least before they are back to pre-covid levels. C ruise lines may be the same. Some countries may not let you get a visa unless you have a vaccination certificate. It used to be like that in a lot of places years ago. So a return to normal there depends on when we get an effective vaccine and get a few billion people vaccinated. Same for big crowds at stadiums, just produce your vaccination certificate to get in.

I don't believe Aussies will stop buying Chinese crap. Locally made goods can't compete on price so that will be back to normal as soon as we go back to shopping.

[zipping]

According to this analysis just over 50% of US deaths are nursing home victims.

New York +Jersey lost up to 10% of their nursing home populations

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...gid=1664960286

[marty351]

Originally Posted by hayseed

Mate. it'll never go back to being NORMALThe World as We Know It has changed Forever.

As My eldest Daughter said to Me the other day "Daddy We're Living History at the Moment" I think a Lot of Work & Business Practices as well as Shopping & Dining out Habits have forever changed.

Just My 2 cents worth.

The eleventh of September 2001 changed the world, mostly for the worse.
Now we have paramilitary police forces that act on a whim if a gun is mentioned, and around the clock police surveillance of anything to boot......... ....

[MITCHAY]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

Best case will be July when we're fully open for business. International borders kept locked down 6-12 months I reckon.

Though I had to laugh they have an exemption built in for overseas students, basically Chinese students to keep the unis flowing with $$$. House always gets a cut

I'm actually surprised that we are doubting US intel which is quite a big deal to rebuke them publicly. Seems it was substantially gathered from public sources.

That sort of scrutiny would have been great before we got involved in the invasion of Iraq.

But seems we have learned that lesson to take it at face value

[zipping]

Originally Posted by PhilT2

Depends on what you call normal. Unemployment predicted to hit 9% even after the lockdown is lifted. How long it stays that high is up to the govt; if they throw enough money at the problem it will go away. Big tax cuts and lots of govt spending will always produce a boom. Produces lots of govt debt too but just pretend that doesn't matter. Worked for DJT.

You missed the secret sauce

Cuts to excessive regulations. Was watching a conspiracy theory on how germany hid all this gold and used it to save their economy after ww2.

No they didn't, simply they opened their market right up to competition, let the market go nuts. Oddly, those crazy Germans called it the social free market.

This led to Mercedes entering F1 by 1954 at the French GP where they ran 1-2 first race back.

Fangio though.

If the gov predicts 9% well automatically that's optimistic, be 12% or higher

[CoupeKing]

Originally Posted by zipping

You missed the secret sauce

Cuts to excessive regulations. Was watching a conspiracy theory on how germany hid all this gold and used it to save their economy after ww2.

No they didn't, simply they opened their market right up to competition, let the market go nuts. Oddly, those crazy Germans called it the social free market.

This led to Mercedes entering F1 by 1954 at the French GP where they ran 1-2 first race back.

Fangio though.

If the gov predicts 9% well automatically that's optimistic, be 12% or higher

Check their post count.

[MITCHAY]

Jebus 30m+ have claimed unemployment. That's nearer 10% of the total population of the US

Unemployment figures are made up of the labour force so they will be way higher.

One of two things will happen. Trump is counting on a huge surge in the economy to overcome the death rate or it will result in many more deaths. Bigly as he says. Who knows what will happen.

[PhilT2]

Originally Posted by zipping

You missed the secret sauce

Cuts to excessive regulations. Was watching a conspiracy theory on how germany hid all this gold and used it to save their economy after ww2.

No they didn't, simply they opened their market right up to competition, let the market go nuts. Oddly, those crazy Germans called it the social free market.

This led to Mercedes entering F1 by 1954 at the French GP where they ran 1-2 first race back.

The Allies looted Germany for everything they could and introduced strict price controls and rationing. The plan was for it to become an agricultural economy. Then in`1947 the cold war happened and the US poured billions into the German economy because they realised they needed a strong ally against Russia. The Marshall plan rebuilt Germany with US dollars. Their Prime Minister realised with all these US dollars they could afford tax cuts and so their economic miracle was achieved by the same old traditional method of tax cuts and govt spending But it did help that the German people were prepared to work their @$$ off.

I know I sound like another Trump hater (I am) but people think he's a miracle worker with the economy. I'm just trying to point out increasing govt spending and running up debt is not rocket science. Both Rudd and Obama did the same thing when the GFC hit. The secret is to know that you have to stop spending and start paying back eventually, something Turnbull and Trump (and my wife) couldn't work out.

Just my opinion, worth every cent you paid for it.

[MITCHAY]

We have a huge trade surplus with China. And then we have a deficit with the US. By Trumps own rules the US should pick up more Aussie goods to balance it out for a fair deal, right?

Happy to let us risk our own necks not to mention all the wars we have got involved in for a long time buying up a lot of American metal that is then used to back them up. Both ends of the deal.

It's not lost on me.

[falcon_bandit]

Our local bowling alley informed us poor league bowlers 9 weeks till they open. Can't wait!!!

[cheap]

Originally Posted by Franco Cozzo

Whats everyone's thoughts on how long this will run before we're back to society as normal pre COVID-19?

I'm calling June 2021 before we're back to no restrictions and society as normal.

My call:

I think unemployment will go even higher. This crisis has given many businesses the option to re-evaluate who is essential and who isn't. I expect more redundancies hitting an already bad job market. Wages will go down too.

From a company financial aspect, this crisis has provided businesses the opportunity to bring to the surface losses that they have had buried deep within their balance sheets. If you're going to make a loss then make it a big loss and blame China/C19.

Also, there is the risk of a second outbreak.

It will never go back to "normal", but will gradually improve in 12-24 months.

In the meantime ScoMo better get more money printing presses.

[russellw]

I was posting a summary of the current State responses until I hit the wrong button.

I'll do it in Word this time and then post it!