Potential Big GFC Discussion Thread

Resurrection · 07-08-2011, 12:15 AM

Not GFC1 or GFC2. We are heading for a depression. Don't worry about house prices. Worry about putting food on the table people!

EDIT: Farnsworth title change - less Y2K'ish

XRGhia · 07-08-2011, 12:29 AM

For real, or just want the attention?

Until there's proof, I call ********

JC · 07-08-2011, 12:30 AM

How many 1/4s of negative growth does it take to make a depression? I remember years ago Keating saying it was the "recession we had to have" - so what's the difference between a recession and a depression (or is it just the words???).

Resurrection · 07-08-2011, 12:32 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xrghiawagon

For real, or just want the attention?

Until there's proof, I call ********

For real junior.

JC · 07-08-2011, 12:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by xrghiawagon

For real, or just want the attention?

Until there's proof, I call ********

Could be for real. American economy is fragile (and that's being kind), and while we are a fair way away geographically, we rely on the US for a lot (all those crate engines to power the "Australian" car, for example) - but seriously, the US economy the way it is can't last, and the impact will be felt around this globe of ours.

So....shop at Aldi, Coles, Woolies, the local butcher, or wherever is cheapest!

Scott · 07-08-2011, 12:57 AM

It's pretty ordinary that's for sure. Could be worse though...

FGII-XR6 · 07-08-2011, 12:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by JC

How many 1/4s of negative growth does it take to make a depression? I remember years ago Keating saying it was the "recession we had to have" - so what's the difference between a recession and a depression (or is it just the words???).

one common methed used by the US to determine a depression is
"(1) a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or (2) a recession lasting 2 or more years"

Spudz27 · 07-08-2011, 01:17 AM

My issue is countries borrowing money to give to countries that can't afford to pay it back. As harsh as it sounds, at the very least halve the money given out to 3rd world countries, christ countries like pakistan get handouts, why?. There is going to be a big shift in the world, china and india are about to become number one. To be honest the U.S have no one else to blame but themselves, it is sad that their inability to control their finances etc can cause grief for so many around the world. The same applies in the euro zone, what **** wit gives a country loan after loan and never bothers to check if said country can repay the debt. I am not sure australia will be massively affected due to our mining industry and china being the main player.

Scott · 07-08-2011, 01:31 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Spudz27

I am not sure australia will be massively affected due to our mining industry and china being the main player.

The country at the greatest risk [direct exposure] of the US failing is China, then there is China's worrying inflation and seemingly growing stock of empty commercial premises.

The US is a big buyer of Chinese exports, as is the rest of the world and there would be no hiding from a Chinese fart at the moment.

The problem that faces the troubled economies (which realistically is most of them) is that the biggest numbers in the Euro Zone, US and Japan are all in a lot more trouble than they can hope to fix without epic change.

Falc'man · 07-08-2011, 01:31 AM

By design.

Road_Warrior · 07-08-2011, 01:36 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by au3xr6

one common methed used by the US to determine a depression is
"(1) a decline in real GDP exceeding 10%, or (2) a recession lasting 2 or more years"

Australia uses different criteria to gauge the presence of a recession.

Road_Warrior · 07-08-2011, 01:39 AM

Also, I don't think we are in for a depression, but a global recession as strong as or a bit worse than 2008 because of the level of sovereign debt in the euro zone and the US which is causing problems. Governments this time around (including Australia) do not have access to the same amount of cash to throw around for stimulus packages to stave off the worst effects of a recession. So the next 6 months are going to be interesting.

Certainly consumer spending is subdued at the moment and there is a general reluctance amongst consumers to enter into more (material) debt, but unfortunately the damage has already been done and wasn't fully dealt with during the GFC. Economic crises in Europe and the US will of course have a flow on effect to China whose economy depends on providing consumer goods to the western world. With shriveled demand for consumer goods, the Chinese will fall on hard times as well which in turn may (emphasis on the word may) impact on Australia's resources sector, a prime mover of our economy.

Bobman · 07-08-2011, 03:46 AM

Future isn't very bright - yet whenever you say that to people, they say you're just being negative and it doesn't affect them.

Well, the 1990s was most definitely the best recent decade as life was great then.

crakrz · 07-08-2011, 07:21 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Resurrection

Not GFC1 or GFC2. We are heading for a depression. Don't worry about house prices. Worry about putting food on the table people!

Geez bloke, keep ya chin up.

Yellow_Festiva · 07-08-2011, 07:47 AM

Serious question. If there is a depression where is the best place to keep your cash? In your loan, under your mattress or if you had loans that could be paid off should you to get full ownership?

Scott · 07-08-2011, 08:33 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Yellow_Festiva

Serious question. If there is a depression where is the best place to keep your cash? In your loan, under your mattress or if you had loans that could be paid off should you to get full ownership?

In my opinion, cash is king right now.

||| · 07-08-2011, 08:36 AM

economic downtowns can be a great time for investing if you're well prepared. the first great depression created some of the wealthiest people of all time

blueoval · 07-08-2011, 08:53 AM

In my opinion, I think buying silver or gold is higher than cash. I have nothing to back that up but I have a distinct feeling about it. With the threat of a cashless society looming among the conversations on the news, it may possibly be the only way governments maintain control.

mcnews · 07-08-2011, 08:54 AM

People talking up depression and the negative everything attitude that Abbott and his minions are talking about will be the main thing that drives this country into recession, they will take us into one even if we shouldn't be in one with their scare tactics. They don't care, only power is important to them, same as all modern day politicians, it is not about what is good for the country, only what is good for them.

302 XC · 07-08-2011, 08:56 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by |||

economic downtowns can be a great time for investing if you're well prepared. the first great depression created some of the wealthiest people of all time

The main issue is , those who have the cash will weather the storm
Or
Those who can afford to have their cash in stocks/shares and again sit it out
But, too many are worried about this, hence the sell,sell,sell of shares
There was alot of people who had alot tied up in shares,in the GFC
The companies went broke and the shares dissapeared

If i had loans that had money owing, id be looking at ways to own the debt

But, people need to chill a bit and dont panic

If your in huge debt, well whos fault is that ???
Yours

FGII-XR6 · 07-08-2011, 10:19 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Road_Warrior

Australia uses different criteria to gauge the presence of a recession.

read again, it says depression not recession

GTP owner · 07-08-2011, 10:53 AM

Depression no, recession yes. So people may have to let their second or third car go, and their internet connection, and their mobile phone, and austar subscription, and magazine subscriptions, and eating at nice restuarants, and buying everything new, or not replacing their huge plasma TV when it blows up....so what? It's just things. It is highly unlikely we will struggle to put food on the table. People really don't know how lucky we are. Those that complain and beg for food handouts rarely give up their fags, grog and pokies. Maybe we all need a reality check to focus on living within our means. A recession will be good for us.

Dr Jekkyl · 07-08-2011, 10:59 AM

Did anybody seriously believe that the economic climate of the 90's-00's could continue forever?

Unfortunately many people were coerced into believing that this was the case and made their financial plans (or made plans for others via managed investments) accordingly.

Perhaps this is the real beginning of a 'Global Financial Correction'?

mr smith · 07-08-2011, 11:06 AM

Holding onto your wealth and paying of debt (especially as most asset classes are going backwards) shoud be the game. I like cash and have had all my super (no losses) and investments in cash for the last 3 years.
Lots of friends and advisors suggested this was foolish and I was at risk of missing out on big gains when the market turns, well that seems to have happened, only it has turned down.
There is no GFC 2, GFC 1 hasnt finished yet. Artificial stimulus hasnt worked and has only driven most countries (and people) into more debt.

mr smith · 07-08-2011, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GTP owner

. A recession will be good for us.

Mate, I couldnt agree more. Times up for dodgy over paid tradies and business that have taken their customers for granted over the last decade. The good players will be fine and their customer support will now pay off (they may even make some gains, as the rouges go bust).

WMD351 · 07-08-2011, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Jekkyl

Did anybody seriously believe that the economic climate of the 90's-00's could continue forever?

I thought we'd learned from the mistakes of the past and it was going to be different this time.

GhiaEB · 07-08-2011, 11:16 AM

As someone who is looking at getting my first house, I am very worried about it. I've factored in a 2% rate rise into my affordability but if it goes higher I could be in a spot of bother.

Add to it a loss in value (if the housing market drops) and I'll be in real trouble. I might just wait another 6months. I'll have a bigger deposit as a bonus.

Cheers

FPV+fteT3 · 07-08-2011, 11:17 AM

The company I work for are preparing for the worst we recently sold a parcel of land at Noosa for @14mil. just to be cashed up ready and to remain in the manufacturing game. The property development side of the business is virtually on ice at the moment we currently have an estate in Brisbane suburbs with 21 home and land packages we developed and have only sold 7 in 12 months. We are prepared to buy companies that would be good add ons for our manufacturing business as the money gets tighter and things start to go pear shaped for those not so well prepared. I guess we are at an advantage that our owner is 76 and has seen it all before and is in a position to shore up our position before it's too late.

I manage 3 of our companies in Newcastle and the majority of the meetings of late are about poor sales figures and where we (australia) are heading now and where we as a group will be 3-5 years down the track. We have bought another business only 4 months ago and have fixed it by being properly capitalised many other small businesses are falling into the same hole call it a recession or whatever it all spells a hard time ahead for all of us.

GTP owner · 07-08-2011, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by WMD351

I thought we'd learned from the mistakes of the past and it was going to be different this time.

I hope that was sarcasm!

GTP owner · 07-08-2011, 11:25 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by GhiaEB

As someone who is looking at getting my first house, I am very worried about it. I've factored in a 2% rate rise into my affordability but if it goes higher I could be in a spot of bother.

Add to it a loss in value (if the housing market drops) and I'll be in real trouble. I might just wait another 6months. I'll have a bigger deposit as a bonus.

Cheers

This is why it is all going so wrong. You need to remember rates were at 17% in the early eighties (albeit for a short period of time) during the Paul Keating recession. We budgeted on max rates of 10% when we bought our home 12 years ago. We paid it off in 8 years, and had a deposit of 25%. If I were you, I would budget on 12% rates, and I would want at least 20% deposit.
Think of it this way... what if you or your partner lost your job - you would probably need to sell the house. If you borrowed 90% of the value, and the property prices drop by 10%, then you are in big strife. You will be forced to sell on a depressed market, pay the realestate thief, pay out the bank, and go broke. If you have a buffer, then if the brown stuff hits the fan you have some wriggle room.
And when you do buy your home, don't forget that everything costs. Rates, insurance, plumbing repairs etc. Then you will probably want to change a few things (new shed, paved walkwaqy etc), and fill you new home with new lounges, plasma TV etc. So, I would suggest you really need more than a 2% buffer....