A scary talk on the future by the MD of Daimler Benz

[GO FURTHER]

A talk by the MD of Daimler Benz

An interesting concept of what could lay ahead...

In a recent interview the MD of Daimler Benz (Mercedes Benz) said their competitors are no longer other car companies but Tesla (obvious), Google, Apple, Amazon 'et al' are…… There have always been the 3 constants ... Death, Taxes and CHANGE!

Software will disrupt most traditional industries in the next 5-10 years.

Uber is just a software tool, they don't own any cars, and are now the biggest taxi company in the world

Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in the world, although they don't own any properties.

Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in understanding the world. This year, a computer beat the best Go player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.

In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM Watson, you can get legal advice (so far for more or less basic stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.

So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future, only specialists will remain.

Watson already helps nurses diagnosing cancer, 4 times more accurate than human nurses. Facebook now has a pattern recognition software that can recognize faces better than humans. In 2030, computers will become more intelligent than humans.

Autonomous cars: In 2018 the first self driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while driving. Our kids will never get a driver's licence and will never own a car.

It will change the cities, because we will need 90-95% less cars for that. We can transform former parking spaces into parks. 1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving that will drop to one accident in 6 million miles (10 million km). That will save a million lives each year.

Most car companies will probably become bankrupt. Traditional car companies try the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies (Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the revolutionary approach and build a computer on wheels.

Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi; are completely terrified of Tesla.

Insurance companies will have massive trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will disappear.

Real estate will change. Because if you can work while you commute, people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.

Electric cars will become mainstream about 2020. Cities will be less noisy because all new cars will run on electricity. Electricity will become incredibly cheap and clean: Solar production has been on an exponential curve for 30 years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.

Last year, more solar energy was installed worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home solar installations, but that can't last. Technology will take care of that strategy.

With cheap electricity comes cheap and abundant water. Desalination of salt water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.

Health: The Tricorder X price will be announced this year. There are companies who will build a medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that works with your phone, which takes your retina scan, your blood sample and you breath into it.

It then analyses 54 biomarkers that will identify nearly any disease. It will be cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world class medical analysis, nearly for free. Goodbye, medical establishment.

3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D printer came down from $18,000 to $400 within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe companies have already started 3D printing shoes.

Some spare airplane parts are already 3D printed in remote airports. The space station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of spare parts they used to have in the past.

At the end of this year, new smart phones will have 3D scanning possibilities. You can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.

In China, they already 3D printed and built a complete 6-storey office building. By 2027, 10% of everything that's being produced will be 3D printed.

Business opportunities: If you think of a niche you want to go in, ask yourself: "in the future, do you think we will have that?" and if the answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?

If it doesn't work with your phone, forget the idea. And any idea designed for success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all day on their fields.

Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of all agricultural surfaces is used for cows. Imagine if we don't need that space anymore. There are several startups who will bring insect protein to the market shortly. It contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating
insects).

There is an app called "moodies" which can already tell in which mood you're in. By 2020 there will be apps that can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being displayed when they're telling the truth and when they're not.

Bitcoin may even become the default reserve currency ... Of the world!

Longevity: Right now, the average life span increases by 3 months per year. Four years ago, the life span used to be 79 years, now it's 80 years. The increase itself is increasing and by 2036, there will be more than one year increase per year. So we all might live for a long long time, probably way more than 100.

Education: The cheapest smart phones are already at $10 in Africa and Asia. By 2020, 70% of all humans will own a smart phone. That means, everyone has the same access to world class education.

Every child can use Khan academy for everything a child needs to learn at school in First World countries. There have already been releases of software in Indonesia and soon there will be releases in Arabic, Suaheli and Chinese this summer. I can see enormous potential if we give the English app for free, so that children in Africa and everywhere else can become fluent in English and that could happen within half a year.

[JAJH]

These are all wonderful notions and no doubt some, not all, will become the status quo. But, my argument has always been, "are we a better world to live in due the changes of the 20/21st century?". There is obviously many things that make life better and easier, but equally, technology has made things worse. We now pump so much into the atmosphere due to burning fossil fuels from cars and industry, it will have an ever-changing effect on the world. Technology has also made us a very lazy society. We sit at computers for hours on end, flick the channels on the TV without lifting a muscle. And this has made us a fat population and one which has become a worldwide health problem. Medicine has made us live longer, but do we live healthier? I don't want to sound like a dramatist, but I don't think we are headed for a better future.

[csv8]

Our technology has exploded since Roswell, is alien technology slowly being introduced to us ? Eg : mobile phone of 30 years ago to today's smart phones? My first car lift the bonnet carby on the right, engine and distributor on the right Now, nothing is diy . Future is interesting!!

[Trump]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

<snip>

Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there will be enough new jobs in such a small time.

<snip>

This one line singulary invalidates every other prediction made. With 80% of the world unemployed, it will be pandemonium as people will be forced to find a meal wherever they can find it. And they won't care how they get it.

Some might say what about a universal wage... how will that be funded if the responsibility for such a scheme rests with govco which is dependent on taxation revenues which no longer exist due to the almost saturation level of unemployment?

A complete paradigm shift is required for the entire world, one that turns on it's head the notion of fractional reserve banking, one that organically rewards innovation and hard work (note I didn't say automatically), one that destroys any and all notions of class and social stratification (we are different, but that doesn't make the differences a valid reason for stratification), one where everyone is educated and has a working sense of personal responsibility, obviating the need for any governmental structures...

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by Trump

This one line singulary invalidates every other prediction made. With 80% of the world unemployed, it will be pandemonium as people will be forced to find a meal wherever they can find it. And they won't care how they get it.

I think what he is saying is that 70 - 80% of existing professions and types of work humans do as we know it today will disappear due to automation, software, robotics, etc.

There will be new jobs created, and many people will need to re-skill to survive in the coming new world of automation.

So there won't be 80% mass unemployment.
Also the governments of the world will put an "income" tax on companies that replace human workers with robots, so money will still flow to them.

If a 10 year old child said to me today.... "What should I study and get into, to secure future employment in 10 - 15 years from now... I would answer... "Son... Become a robotics engineer or technician!"

[Trump]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

I think what he is saying is that 70 - 80% of existing professions and types of work humans do as we know it today will disappear due to automation, software, robotics, etc.

There will be new jobs created, and many people will need to re-skill to survive in the coming new world of automation.

So there won't be 80% mass unemployment.
Also the governments of the world will put an "income" tax on companies that replace human workers with robots, so money will still flow to them.

If a 10 year old child said to me today.... "What should I study and get into, to secure future employment in 10 - 15 years from now... I would answer... "Son... Become a robotics engineer or technician!"

That's the problem though, automation will even take over the jobs we still consider to be too intricate for a machine. The world has never been in a position where the economic base has shifted inexorably towards automation.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by Trump

That's the problem though, automation will even take over the jobs we still consider to be too intricate for a machine. The world has never been in a position where the economic base has shifted inexorably towards automation.

I agree... Looks like the plot and themes in the Terminator movies, will one day come to be. The machines we create and artificial intelligence may take over and control mankind.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

I agree... Looks like the plot and themes in the Terminator movies, will one day come to be. The machines we create and artificial intelligence may take over and control mankind.

I don't think it'll go down that path, but the world isn't able to employ 4-5 billion people as baristas and Costco greeters:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z8zNsUTWsOc

[b0son]

I hope you all have attractive kids/grandkids, because it seems the only job left for people will be prostitution.....

[XP6]

There's one He didnt mention...

https://youtu.be/wLidTCqAAtY

[Mercury Bullet]

When I was growing up we were all going to be flying around with jetpacks by 1990.

Instead we got a Segway.

[GO FURTHER]

Originally Posted by b0son

I hope you all have attractive kids/grandkids, because it seems the only job left for people will be prostitution.....

There will be attractive robotic whores.... Never grow old, a perfect 10, clean and no diseases, cheaper, so we might have to tick the oldest profession off the list as well.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

There will be attractive robotic whores.... Never grow old, a perfect 10, clean and no diseases, cheaper, so we might have to tick the oldest profession off the list as well.

And they won't talk back...

[BPXR6T]

Maybe AI will evolve enough to write its own software. Then I can be put out to pasture...

[HO 3]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

I agree... Looks like the plot and themes in the Terminator movies, will one day come to be. The machines we create and artificial intelligence may take over and control mankind.

In the 2020s as we usher in 5g technology current mid tier employment opportunities like GPs, Lawyers and so on will become increasingly redundant..................the future employment landscape will completely change and be dominated by those that are either innovative or of a highly technical background and many current mainstream jobs will become more boutique and less relevant.

Cheers Mick

[Vesper Martini]

When will technology replace the need for lawyers

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

When will technology replace the need for lawyers

When it gets jokes like this:

"You're trapped in a cage with a lion, a cobra and a lawyer. You have a gun and two bullets. What do you shoot?

The lawyer - twice"

[Giant Cranium]

Originally Posted by Bevsta007

When will technology replace the need for lawyers

its already starting, my wife who is a lawyer is looking forward to future proof herself as all the large companies know that they will need less lawyers in the future to do the same work. she has been to multiple meetings about this and the new computer software that will answer questions quickly with less chance of being wrong than she could

[cs123]

Originally Posted by csv8

My first car lift the bonnet carby on the right, engine and distributor on the right Now, nothing is diy . Future is interesting!!

It still is DIY, just a different skillset.

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by Giant Cranium

the new computer software that will answer questions quickly with less chance of being wrong

Pfffffft........ I don't need any of that.
I have a wife..........

[snowcone]

We still have to eat and live somewhere. We will still want to be entertained.
Just a couple of things that will still require human intervention.
Just consider food as one example - there might be ways that robotics can grow vegetables etc, but who is going to farm the cattle for our meat eaters, who will process the meat, who will repair and maintain the refrigeration required to store the meat. Will the meat somehow load itself onto an automatically driven refrigerated truck and miraculously arrive at our favourite restaurant, which is still being operated by a human.

As long as you are prepared to work a career in some form of service and repair industry, you will be OK.
It's just the shiny @rses that wont have a job anymore.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by snowcone

We still have to eat and live somewhere. We will still want to be entertained.
Just a couple of things that will still require human intervention.
Just consider food as one example - there might be ways that robotics can grow vegetables etc, but who is going to farm the cattle for our meat eaters, who will process the meat, who will repair and maintain the refrigeration required to store the meat. Will the meat somehow load itself onto an automatically driven refrigerated truck and miraculously arrive at our favourite restaurant, which is still being operated by a human.

As long as you are prepared to work a career in some form of service and repair industry, you will be OK.
It's just the shiny @rses that wont have a job anymore.

These are the very industries that are the focus of those driving the automation bandwagon. Don't be surprised if your meat is printed in a decade or so...

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by Trump

Don't be surprised if your meat is printed in a decade or so...

I reckon Maccas have already been doing it for a decade.......

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by BAXRSIX

There will be attractive robotic whores.... Never grow old, a perfect 10, clean and no diseases, cheaper, so we might have to tick the oldest profession off the list as well.

Question is, do you buy one $400 dollar hookerbot, or 400 $1 dollar hookerbots?

[Wretched]

Interesting, some of it a little over the top but others, near spot on.
Certainly not the end of the world, it's like when the horse and cart was replaced with the car, computers replacing a wide of range of items in a number of industries, etc.

The world will evolve; we cannot just sit here and forget the future, it is the basis of being human, trying to improve upon the status quo.

[Trump]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Interesting, some of it a little over the top but others, near spot on.
Certainly not the end of the world, it's like when the horse and cart was replaced with the car, computers replacing a wide of range of items in a number of industries, etc.

The world will evolve; we cannot just sit here and forget the future, it is the basis of being human, trying to improve upon the status quo.

The problem with that line of reasoning is that mankind has become far too dependent on technology, so much so a lot of it has been humanised; think about how people interact with their "smart" phones. It is because we have turned these technologies into an extension of our being that the ability to evolve is being diminished on a daily basis.

All of this happened because someone found a way for people to form an emotional attachment to an amalgam of plastic, metal and glass...

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by Trump

The problem with that line of reasoning is that mankind has become far too dependent on technology, so much so a lot of it has been humanised; think about how people interact with their "smart" phones. It is because we have turned these technologies into an extension of our being that the ability to evolve is being diminished on a daily basis.

All of this happened because someone found a way for people to form an emotional attachment to an amalgam of plastic, metal and glass...

But we have always been dependent on technology, no matter what it is.
Look at our dependence on the car, our dependence on home appliances.
We've "evolved" this way because someone found a way to do a task better.
We moved from cooking on an open fire (well some of us have, i still love my Weber) to using an oven, we found living in a constructed dwelling was better than under a few branches. We, as humans have always found a way to do something different or better (subjective), whether that has come out of conflict, innovative thinking or just need.

The issue we have is there is too much "rubbish" that accommodates the lowest common denominator in society. i.e. much of the TV.

[Whitey-AMG]

Originally Posted by Wretched

The world will evolve; we cannot just sit here and forget the future, it is the basis of being human, trying to improve upon the status quo.

Well....
there is Good tech and Bad tech I reckon and there aren't always improvements.
Realistically - High tech ( Good Tech ) should be the process for simplifying complexities - to support mass use and consumption.
I still think most tech ends up making our lives more complex. It also desensitizes basic functions.
Its kinda making tasks easier, but not always making our lives easier - an altruism really.........

[DJR-351]

And then there is this....

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vg0A9Ve7SxE

http://spectrum.ieee.org/transportat...re-almost-here

[BradEL]

That all sounds like a good plot for the next Back to the Future movie where they go forward to the year 2030