2016 / 2017 sales prediction

au2000 · 18-01-2013, 08:06 AM

hi guys, talking with alot of like minded car mates at work recently re the whole falcon / commodore could be over thing & all agreed on two things ,
1) once 1 is cancelled the other will follow soon after
2) that in the final 6 mths or so there will be a increased demand for new falcons & commodores as those of us who love the cars decided to bite the bullet & bring forward updating plans..

i for one was gonna wait another 5 years to update my au to a new falcon but i've already told the mrs that if & only if they do end falcon in 2016, well ill be straight to the dealers for a new one earlier..
my other mates agree & 2 of them who were going to upgrade next year are now gonna wait another year or 2 for what may be the last of the commodres too..

do we think that this is why sales are dropping, people deciding to wait for the last of the model rather than by one now?

FocusLX06 · 18-01-2013, 08:29 AM

Regarless of when the last model is announced - I will be getting it. Doesn't matter what my current Falcon is.

BDA074 · 18-01-2013, 08:39 AM

Have already decided to upgrade in 2016 if Faclon on the way out.
Lease expires in 2015 so can hold out...

Joe5619 · 18-01-2013, 09:11 AM

The fat lady is not singing yet!!

bangm001 · 18-01-2013, 09:16 AM

If there are no more large RWD sedans by ford/holden after that time, prob alot of people will do the same and purchase around then. However if there are whispers of using american car platforms which are fairly similar anyway, would this deter buying as they would wait for this? I guess it depends on what they can muster over the next few years.

turbodewd · 18-01-2013, 09:17 AM

There is still demand for large cars, no doubt. But can they be made profitable.

If all levels of govt bort 4cyl Falcons or 3.0L commos then the numbers might make sense...maybe. We'd need to ask Ford AU bean counters.

Ive already written to 2 members of ACT government and my local Federal member on this subject matter. Ive also asked them to double the term for which they keep non-AU made cars. I find it absurd that after 2yrs or 40,000km the Fed govt will buy replacement corollas. I mean WTF, hold on to them for 4 or 5 years and make them do 80 or 100,000km.

Now get off your posterior and email your state/fed govt reps and ask them to buy AU made.

xisled · 18-01-2013, 01:27 PM

If it is going to end, they will slow down the production, not speed it up. If everyone has the thinking, I am going to get the last falcon/commodore made, they may miss out on a new car if waiting for the end to come.

Dr Smith · 18-01-2013, 07:05 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Joe5619

The fat lady is not singing yet!!

So true however I have a feeling Joshua Dowling is trying to be her Tour Manager.

stevz · 19-01-2013, 01:27 AM

Hopefully by then the Aussie dollar will have dropped back down to below 80c and tariffs are raised, so imports can be put back in their place.

jpd80 · 19-01-2013, 06:47 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by stevz

Hopefully by then the Aussie dollar will have dropped back down to below 80c and tariffs are raised, so imports can be put back in their place.

Not if the Americans keep refusing to lower their debt ceiling, the financial cliff was an example of how no one there
wants to cut spending and raise taxes, until that happens our dollar will keep rising, some predict $1.20 or more
which is not good, the reserve bank should be cutting interest rates not holding firm..

mike_nofx · 19-01-2013, 08:59 PM

If either Falcon or Commodore stop being made, would it be fair to assume a large percentage of buyers from the cancelled model would jump ship to the competition?

If so, could that see that model (hopefully Falcon of course) see possibly up to a 50% sales increase and be enough to continue that model?

Dr Smith · 19-01-2013, 10:50 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jpd80

Not if the Americans keep refusing to lower their debt ceiling, the financial cliff was an example of how no one there
wants to cut spending and raise taxes, until that happens our dollar will keep rising, some predict $1.20 or more
which is not good, the reserve bank should be cutting interest rates not holding firm..

The problem is I think using interest rates to lower the $Aust. is losing its effect. Plus the banks are not matching Reserve Bank rate movements. And my credit card and business overdraft rates have not shifted at all compared to mortgage rates

bmorris · 19-01-2013, 11:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

The problem is I think using interest rates to lower the $Aust. is losing its effect. Plus the banks are not matching Reserve Bank rate movements. And my credit card and business overdraft rates have not shifted at all compared to mortgage rates

The problem is unless our rates are 0% then they are still going to be higher then the US or Euro rates, therefore making the Aussie dollar more attractive. So that's why cutting at .25% each time is doing nothing

TheInterceptor · 20-01-2013, 12:17 AM

Mum, another person to tell me Falcon/Commodore will be cut in 2016, asked what they (her and dad) will buy if Ford stop production? (parents bought Falcon wagons almost forever) Then i told her that they stopped production of the wagon years ago. She said "What! what will we buy next then?"

I told her "nothing...keep the BFII till its a write off..." Dad is in agreeance. And yes, they were prepared to buy new. So this is one family that certainly wont be updating to a new Falcon.

Falcon is already dead to some people........

Dr Smith · 20-01-2013, 04:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheInterceptor

Mum, another person to tell me Falcon/Commodore will be cut in 2016, asked what they (her and dad) will buy if Ford stop production? (parents bought Falcon wagons almost forever) Then i told her that they stopped production of the wagon years ago. She said "What! what will we buy next then?"

I told her "nothing...keep the BFII till its a write off..." Dad is in agreeance. And yes, they were prepared to buy new. So this is one family that certainly wont be updating to a new Falcon.

Falcon is already dead to some people........

And my parents have only bought Falcon wagons from XP, XW, XE, XF, EL and are now on their 4th Territory and you know what, for aging parents they love the Terry's more then any wagon. Have your parents driven one becuase it will surprise them if not, that's if they still want a wagon?

nothin suss · 20-01-2013, 04:49 PM

Territory's are great but there's a certain simplicity of the B-Series wagon that Myself and I know alot of people like.

As for 'what will people buy' once the Falcon/Commo goes I think that's already answered with the popularity of a Small/Medium vehicle for the Mrs and Mr having the SUV sitting in the driveway.

There will be FPV fans doing a last minute purchase for sure.
Like someone said tho the fat lady hasn't sung yet.

TheInterceptor · 20-01-2013, 11:15 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Dr Smith

And my parents have only bought Falcon wagons from XP, XW, XE, XF, EL and are now on their 4th Territory and you know what, for aging parents they love the Terry's more then any wagon. Have your parents driven one becuase it will surprise them if not, that's if they still want a wagon?

They havent driven one no. Dad doesnt even look twice at them. Even at the motorshow, a nice fancy Titanium diesel Terry, nope. Bleh. Neither parent like them. SUV's are not attractive.
They use up all the luggage space in their BFII (more than a Tezza has), also has a roof rack like mine which is easy accessed and used (Tezza roof access isnt as easy).
It tows their van very well aswell. It soaks up a few hundred kilos worth of cargo easy (which isnt uncommon), doesnt even sag thanks to the 6 leaf rear suspension. Still returns a cosy 8L on the highway. If they want a higher riding position i will redo the suspension lift they had back in 2012 on it... Territory just doesnt cut the mustard full stop.

Ive poked around in Territory's, from base model to the Ghia over a number of year models (though havent been in the latest one, could have but i have no interest). Personally im not terribley impressed (as you could probably tell) though they do ride quite well

A Territory is not a substitute for everyone. Dont get me wrong, Tezzas are great vehicles but they are no Falcon wagon.

DanielXR8 · 21-01-2013, 01:12 AM

If 2016 turns out to be the last year of Falcon, then I expect a lot of BF Cobra owners with low mileage cars on CarSales will get very excited and put another 20% on the current sales price they are asking.

That means there will still be new Falcons with delivery only kilometers, for you to choose from and buy well into 2024. Only problem is they are all white with blue stripes...

VICFPV · 21-01-2013, 01:46 AM

There will always be a ford you could buy after the end of fal/com.
The world is not going to end. There could be better replacements that will boost sales or flop. Due to it being an import.
Just play the waiting game.
There are some good global cars that can replace the local product. Lets hope they pick the right ones.

Powdered Toast Man · 21-01-2013, 12:35 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by TheInterceptor

Mum, another person to tell me Falcon/Commodore will be cut in 2016, asked what they (her and dad) will buy if Ford stop production? (parents bought Falcon wagons almost forever) Then i told her that they stopped production of the wagon years ago. She said "What! what will we buy next then?"

I told her "nothing...keep the BFII till its a write off..." Dad is in agreeance. And yes, they were prepared to buy new. So this is one family that certainly wont be updating to a new Falcon.

Falcon is already dead to some people........

How about Mondeo wagon? They are a pretty big car. Unless it has to be RWD.

Bossxr8 · 21-01-2013, 09:08 PM

Mustang will be the most logical choice for a Ford enthusiast to buy if there isn't a Falcon. It's probably the reason Ford are bringing it here.

Although some won't like the lack of doors. But the aftermarket for Mustang gear is freaking awesome.

Rodge · 21-01-2013, 09:30 PM

Well my kids have left home

, so only two doors won't worry me...on the other hand those buying a 2016 Falcon, especially a niche one like a SC FPV may have grounds for concern regarding an acceptable long term supply of parts.

Bossxr8 · 21-01-2013, 10:16 PM

Ford are obligated by law to provide, as best they can, parts supply for 7 years, just like they do now. Doesn't matter if it goes out of production, they will have to stockpile parts.

Some in demand parts don't even make it to 7 years and end up obsolete a few years earlier, so I can't see it being any different to now in terms of having a hard time getting parts once they reach 5 or so years old.

TheInterceptor · 21-01-2013, 10:48 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Powdered Toast Man

How about Mondeo wagon? They are a pretty big car. Unless it has to be RWD.

At the motorshow, i made us look at the Mondeo. Dad likes it more than the tezza, i like it more too (after all its not an SUV), but the interior space is not as good, boot space is nothing like the Falcon wagon so dad quickly dismissed it as an option. Also, we are guessing it wont do very well towing a 2000kg odd caravan aswell......if it can even tow that much to begin with. So immediatley its not on the list. I6 torque and RWD make for easy towing. Roomy, comfy interior make for easy days out touring. All that i just listed, yes, a Territory has, but i already mentioned why Tezza is not happening in my post above.

We were both very impressed with the Ranger and he wanted to buy one and would have, but ultimatley shelling out $70k for the Wildtrak with options (even the fifty or was it sixty odd for the XLT with options) was a bit much for mum so that didnt happen

So yep, thats that really. The Falcon wagon will stay with them till its a write off!