Dowling now believes car industry more doomed if Holden stays

[BroadyFord]

So, which one is it then?

Exclusive: future Holdens less Australian than a Camry

http://www.carsguide.com.au/news-and...20131202_80504

Federal funding boost for Holden hurts local parts suppliers, secret report says.
Holden says it’s as True Blue as football, meat pies and kangaroos -- but a secret document has revealed the cars it plans to build with more than $275 million taxpayer dollars will be less Australian than a Toyota Camry.
The local content of the latest Holden Commodore has already dropped to 50 per cent, while less than one-third of the Cruze small car is made from Australian-sourced components, even though Holden has received $1.8 billion in government assistance over the past 12 years.
By comparison, the local content of the Toyota Camry and Ford Falcon sedans are 70 per cent, according to figures supplied by the car-makers.
Holden’s confidential plan to increase the foreign parts in its cars will likely come as a kick in the guts to local automotive parts suppliers who today (Monday December 2) will hold a rally at Adelaide’s Stamford Hotel before lodging their submission to the Productivity Commission.
“The Productivity Commission must understand that this isn’t just about economics, it’s about families and communities,” said John Camillo, the SA secretary of the Australian Manufacturing Workers Union.
The Federal Coalition Government has postponed any new taxpayer assistance deals with car makers and automotive component suppliers until after the Productivity Commission delivers an interim report on the industry by December 20 and a final report on March 31.
Critically, this is after a global General Motors deadline to allocate investment in future models and it is feared the fate of Holden's factory may already be decided.
Holden yesterday declined to comment on its future model plans. But the SA Government “Cabinet In Confidence” document -- partly funded by and compiled with co-operation from Holden -- says there will be a “significant reduction” in locally-made components for the two cars General Motors plans to build in the future.
“The Next Gen plan sees two vehicle ranges with the majority of components for each being imported,” says the report prepared by University of Adelaide Professor Goran Roos. "Accordingly the Next Gen plan would see a significant reduction in the Australian-based suppliers to GM Holden.”
The report contradicts Holden’s public claim that if its factory and the jobs of its 1760 production line workers are saved, Australian component manufacturers will also benefit.
Holden boss Mike Devereux says the “ripple effect” of a shutdown would be felt across the parts supply industry -- and up to 7000 jobs in South Australia and up to 18,000 in Victoria would be lost.
But, in fact, if General Motors receives the funding boost it needs to continue production in Australia, some local parts suppliers are likely to lose their contracts with Holden and may themselves face a shutdown.
Critically, even if local parts suppliers can match or undercut the price of foreign rivals, they are unlikely to be awarded the business because of General Motors’ global parts supply contracts.
“Even if an Australian-based supplier could offer a cheaper alternative for (Holden) locally it would not be adopted as it could interfere with the broader global GM supplier relations,” the report says.
Holden’s decision to increase the foreign content of its “Next Generation” cars now risks bringing Toyota and the rest of the Australian automotive manufacturing industry down with it.
If Holden weakens the parts supply base, the remaining component manufacturers may not have the economies of scale to help Toyota find the $400 million in annual savings it needs to survive.
Toyota Australia says it must slash $3800 -- or about 15 per cent of the production cost -- from each car it builds if it is to retain the Middle East export deal that is critical to keeping its Altona factory running.
Only 35,000 Camry and Aurion V6 sedans are sold locally each year; about 70,000 Camrys are exported. Toyota Australia says it must build a minimum of 80,000 cars a year to remain viable.
In Tokyo last week, the executive vice president and member of the board of Toyota, Nobuyori Kodaira, said local parts suppliers were key to the survival of Toyota’s Australian operations.
“In Australia currently we are having a difficult situation,” said Mr Kodaira. “Because this is a business we need to have economic viability.
“In order to continue the manufacturing there, we are cooperating with our suppliers on activities such as rationalisation and also cost reduction. We definitely think those activities are necessary.”
A Toyota insider told News Corp Australia: “If Holden goes, we’ll be right behind them. It won’t be announced straight away … but we’ll be gone too.”
Toyota Australia executives are still fighting hard to save the Altona car assembly line and engine plant, by trying to find new ways to cut production costs.
In Tokyo last week a Toyota Australia executive said a decision about Altona would come from Japan by mid-2014. But representatives for the company have since told News Corp Australia a deadline has not been set, and it may be in the second half of 2014.
In the meantime about 2000 of Toyota’s 2500 factory workers at Altona have been asked to vote on an amendment to their workplace agreement that cuts bonuses but improves shift flexibility.
Unlike Holden workers -- who in September voted for a three-year wage freeze if production is secured from 2016 to 2022 -- Toyota factory workers will get to keep two longstanding pay rises due next year: a 3.25 per cent increase in April and 2 per cent in September.
The Toyota workers must cast their vote by Friday the 13th of December. If Toyota were to close its Altona facility, it would likely happen in 2018, at the end of the next Camry model cycle.
In August this year, Toyota Australia announced it had received $30 million in government funding to go towards an update for the Camry to be built at Altona from 2015 to 2018. There is no suggestion this deal is under threat.
As reported by Carsguide last month the SA Government briefing paper forecast the possibility of a Holden shutdown in 2016, the same year as Ford. The secret document also said Holden’s factory shutdown could be delayed until 2018 -- even if it did not proceed with the two new “Next Generation” models -- by extending production of the current Commodore and Cruze.
"Our key working assumption is that manufacturing/assembly of mass-market vehicle platforms at GMH is not sustainable,” the report said.
“It is therefore likely that vehicle assembly will eventually cease: 2016 being the earliest likely date.”
The report also found Holden exaggerated its sales forecasts for the two new cars, which means State and Federal Governments would again be threatened with a shutdown at a later date.
“The sales assumptions of the Next Gen case err towards the optimistic,” the report says. “(Holden assumes) all unit sales of the current Commodore sedans migrate to the new proposed front-wheel-drive large vehicle, and that all current unit sales of the Commodore wagon migrate to the Next Gen small vehicle wagon.
“The case assumes an overall increase in sales of small vehicles … in the most cost competitive segment of the market. We believe that these assumptions have greater downside risk than upside risk,” the report found.
Carsguide understands that under the “Next Generation” plan Holden expects to build just 65,000 cars per year at Elizabeth, down from approximately 84,000 this year and a peak of 165,000 in 2004.
Holden has received more than $1.8 billion in taxpayer support over the past 12 years, and in March 2012 had signed a deal with the former Federal Labor Government for a further $275 million to build two new models.
But since Ford announced in May this year that it will shut its Australian factories in 2016, Holden has asked for a funding increase because it says economic conditions have “changed dramatically”.

[zilo]

Just another stamping plant and spray shop.

Surely General Motors...errr..."Holden "...have have bluffed us locals for long enough?

[stevz]

WHY are we giving this oxygen thief any airtime?

[mik]

If you where a betting type........... you would have to place a bet that things will get only worse for suppliers, holden is in it for the bucks, they will be out sourcing for all they worth ........ LETS ALL SING ALONG....................footballs, meat pies, kangaroos and DAEWOO CARS !

[Polyal]

Originally Posted by stevz

WHY are we giving this oxygen thief any airtime?

For once I agree with you...bet you he cant drive for jack either.

Ignore the fool! We should have any article written by him relegated to the 2nd page in The Pub by default.

[Express]

This should most definitely be at the forefront of the Forum.

These articles are not written with the members of car Forums in mind.

They are written for the general car buying public who in most cases have no or very little passion in cars.

Therefore if the local product doesn’t suit their needs or budget they see the local product as a dinosaur that shouldn’t be financially assisted from taxpayer coffers. These types of articles only help fuel those perceptions.

If we as car people don’t read and disagree with them or even worse, ignore them, how on earth will we know what the general car buying public is thinking?

Reading the comments at the bottom of these articles is a chance to get a feel for what others outside the Forum are saying and to add your own 2 cents worth.

Like the articles or not, we should at least stay informed even if we believe it to be scaremongering, anti-local manufacturing propaganda.




.

[bobthebilda]

Originally Posted by stevz

WHY are we giving this oxygen thief any airtime?

Did you find something incorrect in the article. A "fact" that you know may not be true. Let us all hear it.

[jpblue1000]

Originally Posted by stevz

WHY are we giving this oxygen thief any airtime?

I too don't see what the agression against the reporter is in this case. He quotes from a source, the article shows little to no bias or author opinion just quotes from others better suited to make such statements.
Many accuse Dowling of single handedly ruining manufacturing in Australia, by showing an obvious bias firstly against Ford in favour of Holden now against holden in favour of Toyota?, surely biases dont change, facts, figures and stories do perhaps confusing many a reader as to His 'preference' with one manufacturer when he simply reports on a story!
I think many 'haters' are letting their Bias get the better of their power to reason.

JP

[burnz]

what report is that??

oh that's right, it a secret!

[outback_ute]

Originally Posted by bobthebilda

Did you find something incorrect in the article. A "fact" that you know may not be true. Let us all hear it.

That may be true, but it doesn't appear that there is anything 'new' since his last article on the same subject.

[OCTANEBOSS]

What is Joshua's qualifications on any subject let alone cars etc.. seen his head the other day.. say no more.

[flooded one]

sad thing Australian built Camrys are already more Australian the Commodore is.... the local Content in both cars will clarify that

[Express]

Originally Posted by redloamrules

What is Joshua's qualifications on any subject let alone cars etc.. seen his head the other day.. say no more.

He’s the National Motoring Editor, News Corp Australia.

Love him or hate him, he’s a Journalist who is doing fairly well for himself.

Check this out if you’re a Ford Fan.



https://twitter.com/JoshuaDowling




.

[OCTANEBOSS]

Originally Posted by Express

He’s the National Motoring Editor, News Corp Australia.

Love him or hate him, he’s a Journalist who is doing fairly well for himself.

Check this out if you’re a Ford Fan.



https://twitter.com/JoshuaDowling




.

Sorry I forgot he works for the dark side... & he will have a mustang before me. Good luck to him

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by redloamrules

What is Joshua's qualifications on any subject let alone cars etc.. seen his head the other day.. say no more.

What was the reference to his head got to do with anything?
Just a low blow?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he's far more qualified than you for many reasons but two important reasons would be, he can string together words better than you could ever and I would imagine he has driven far more cars (and far more diverse range) than you have.

Funny, he was accused of being biased against Ford, then he is against Holden and now he is against everyone?

[MethodX]

Originally Posted by mik

If you where a betting type........... you would have to place a bet that things will get only worse for suppliers, holden is in it for the bucks, they will be out sourcing for all they worth ........ LETS ALL SING ALONG....................footballs, meat pies, kangaroos and DAEWOO CARS !

like ford with thai cars.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by Wretched

What was the reference to his head got to do with anything?
Just a low blow?

I'm going to go out on a limb and say that he's far more qualified than you for many reasons but two important reasons would be, he can string together words better than you could ever and I would imagine he has driven far more cars (and far more diverse range) than you have.

Funny, he was accused of being biased against Ford, then he is against Holden and now he is against everyone?

Blind Freddy can see that he is hell bent on destroying Australian manufacturing with his constant and systematic negative articles. First it was Ford now its Holden then it will be Toyota. He wont stop until the last Australian made car rolls off the production line.
You may say he is only a journalist, but his drivel is read and taken as gospel by the non car enthusiast masses, and his constant negativity leads to poor public perception and a decrease in confidence in Aus made cars which ultimately leads to fewer sales.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by stevz

Blind Freddy can see that he is hell bent on destroying Australian manufacturing with his constant and systematic negative articles. First it was Ford now its Holden then it will be Toyota. He wont stop until the last Australian made car rolls off the production line.
You may say he is only a journalist, but his drivel is read and taken as gospel by the non car enthusiast masses, and his constant negativity leads to poor pubic perception and a decrease in confidence which ultimately leads to fewer sales.

Ha, you really think one journalist is the cause of the downfall of Australian car manufacturing? never thought that it could be the product itself?

How many here, a forum of Ford's most loyal have bought a brand new Falcon in the last year, then how many here have traded in their Falcon (or other) on another imported Ford (or other make)?
If the "loyal" Ford fans aren't buying local why should anyone else?

[OCTANEBOSS]

yeah I know low blow.. just seen that crap written about him on AFF & couldnt help myself. Wont loose any sleep over thou, he is a journo and there often known as leaches, parasites, dogs & perpetrators of the biggest bullshirt stories around etc. back to work now

[stevz]

double post

[stevz]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Ha, you really think one journalist is the cause of the downfall of Australian car manufacturing?

I never said he was the sole cause, but rather a major contributor.
Its the media that's been pushing this 'large sedans are dead' 'people only want to buy small cars' and 'Aussie cars are poor quality' propaganda and over time people read this multiple times and eventually become brainwashed and start to believe it. You cannot deny that the media's influence has been a major contributing factor in the change of people's buying habits.

[flooded one]

It is true thou that the Large car segment is in decline and has been for a while. thou I do think the media can either "make or break" you. In this case, constantly bad mouthing how Australian car sales are declining does make people think there inferior. I'm not going to judge someone who buys a Patrol over a Territory thou in saying that.

[Wretched]

[QUOTE=stevz;4952470]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Ha, you really think one journalist is the cause of the downfall of Australian car manufacturing? [\QUOTE]

I never said he was the sole cause, but rather a major contributor.

Its the media that's been pushing this 'large sedans are dead' 'people only want to buy small cars' propaganda and over time people keep reading this and eventually become brainwashed and start to believe it. You cannot deny that this has been a major contributing factor in the change of people's buying habits.

Nope I don't agree, I believe the fall of the sedan has more to do with the rise of the SUV and the drastic changes of the hatch back.

The SUV (see Territory) provides families with a far more versatile and functional vehicle than a sedan. These days they're spacious, have adequate power (or more), room to boot and handle like a car. Not to mention there are far more options too in all price ranges.

The hatch back is changed so much in the last 10 - 15 years. they have grown inside and out, are stacked with every creature comfort (see Focus, Golf and i30), handle brilliantly (Focus, Golf), are good on fuel and even have scorching hot performance models (ST, Megane RS, Focus RS, GTI, R, etc). Then you have the price of them which are pretty good considering what you get.

Most are 5 start safety rated and there is good range for every buyer.

So no, the fall of the sedan has more to do with what else is available in the market than anything else.

[OCTANEBOSS]

Sorry Wretched I didn't know he was a relation. I passed year 9 & have 2 trades but an intellectual keyboard master Im not. give him my regards at the newscorp christmas gig

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by redloamrules

Sorry Wretched I didn't know he was a relation. I passed year 9 & have 2 trades but an intellectual keyboard master Im not. give him my regards at the newscorp christmas gig

No, he's no relation and I don't know him. That has nothing to do with what is being discussed. Obviously you can't have a proper debate without having to resort to silly degrading comments.

FYI, drive.com.au is fairfax

[fte50]

The problem with Dowling and modern day journalism media ethics. It aint about sharing/voicing the truth, its all about ratings for a fat pay check. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sensationalism

[stevz]

Originally Posted by Wretched

Nope I don't agree, I believe the fall of the sedan has more to do with the rise of the SUV and the drastic changes of the hatch back.

The SUV (see Territory) provides families with a far more versatile and functional vehicle than a sedan. These days they're spacious, have adequate power (or more), room to boot and handle like a car. Not to mention there are far more options too in all price ranges.

The hatch back is changed so much in the last 10 - 15 years. they have grown inside and out, are stacked with every creature comfort (see Focus, Golf and i30), handle brilliantly (Focus, Golf), are good on fuel and even have scorching hot performance models (ST, Megane RS, Focus RS, GTI, R, etc). Then you have the price of them which are pretty good considering what you get.

Most are 5 start safety rated and there is good range for every buyer.

So no, the fall of the sedan has more to do with what else is available in the market than anything else.

Well I don't agree with you either. The average non car enthusiast is completely clueless when it comes to cars and the majority of car purchases are based on what is 'trendy or 'fashionable' ....and guess what.... trends and fashions are pushed and promoted by the media.

[stevz]

Originally Posted by Wretched

FYI, drive.com.au is fairfax

Dowling works for Carsguide which is News corp

[OCTANEBOSS]

OK mate you win, this pub talk is getting to serious now. I will grab my change and leave before the bouncers see that gravity is starting to affect time which may lead to an over abundance of dark energy accumulating at one point. I will stick to removing 50 ton machines from a 5 mtr tunnel that weighs 400 ton from 1 km below the earths crust and dream about buying a Mustang one day. A bit of fun mate, dont take offence, laying my glass down...

[mik]

Originally Posted by MethodX

like ford with thai cars.

Perhaps, but ford doesn't do a song and dance calling them australian cars.