AFL Grand Final: St. Kilda v Geelong

Cobra · 22-09-2009, 11:07 AM

Since I titled the other thread Prelim finals I thought it would be better to start a new thread on this weeks game, the most important game of the year. If a mod feels the need to merge the two threads though, by all means do so.

Well, what can I say? The two best teams by far this year has been St Kilda and Geelong, so it's obviously great to see them playing off. I have to admit, for a while there I thought it would be Dejavu of '99 where Essendon and North Melbourne were the best two teams in the comp that year but Essendon were knocked out in one of the most memorable Prelims ever.

Defence vs Attack.

St Kilda were renowned for their tackling pressure all year. They stifled their oppostion, causing turnovers which usually resulted in a goal for them. Their pressure on the ball carrier, and the discipline of their game plan was A1. "Lyons Cage" as it's affectionately known as has been solid all year, and almost been impenetrable. Geelong have had thier play on at all cost style for the last 3 years now. It has served them extremely well, has made them a very exciting team to watch when taking it through the corridor. Their run has been almost unstoppable, and really have only ever been dominated once since this adopted game plan, which occured agaisnt Collingwood in Rnd 9, 2008.

We have already had a taste of what's to come. The round 14 game this year between these two sides was arguably one of the best games in the modern era. Will we see the same thing happen again? Maybe. But there's are a few things to note first. Firstly, team structures. Geelong had injuries to 3 key players (Ottens, Johnson and Kelly) who are all back in the side now, and who all contributed with solid games last week. The other is the venue.

Much has been made of St Kilda not having experience at the MCG, and that the wide wings will make their 'flooding' type of play difficult and maye gte them exposed. Considering they beat the team in the first qualifying final whcih has more MCG expereince than any other this year, and who play along the wings more than any other team, quite convincngly in the end, even if on the scoreboard it only showed 28 points, tells me that this is a non issue.

The other thing is that Geelong like to run through the corridor, so effectivly the Saints have a lot less room to have to guard. Normally this would play into their hands, but I think with the speed that Geelong can not only run through the centre, but flick the ball around to effectively play keepings off, may expose the saints weakness. If the Saints can't effectively stop Geelongs run via pressure, they certainly won't be able to match them with leg speed, and I think this maybe cause St Kilda massive problems.

One last question mark that hangs over this game to me is how well Nick Rewolt pulls up. He has been instrumental and inspirational all year for the Saints. He is the heart and soul of that club, and has single handedly willed them over the line to get them to the position that they are in today. But how will his knee hold up? Last week seeing him hobble like that would be enough for any saints fans to get cold sweats. I think if St Kilda are to be a chance, he needs to have a blinder.

Everything all points to this being one of the best Grand Finals of all time. But rarely when a game like this is billed up to be this big does it actually deliver on it's promise. Round 14 delivered more than anyone could have hoped for. Whether or not that will happen again, no one knows. But what I am sure about is that both teams will be hungry - desperate if you will, to be able to raise that cup above their head on Saturday afternoon.

When you look back and analyse it clinically, you can say that the Saints are where Geelong were a couple of years ago. Whilst Geelong, having been the best team for the last 3 years (probably equal best this year), have the emotional burden of last year still fresh in their minds, and knowing that aother loss in a GF would almost certainly spell and end to their dominant era, it's harder to say who's under more pressure.

The fact that the Cats have been here 3 years in a row, and that they are savagely hungry to avenge last year, and combine that with the fact that they've got a full fresh list at their disposal, it's hard not to back them. But the Saints have been awesome all year, a well coached and well disciplined side, with eveyr player exactly intune with what their role is. To dsimiss the Saints purely on their lack of GF expereince would be folly, as we all know what happened in Geelongs first GF in '07. Are the Saints on about to start their Dynasty? Or are the Cats so hungry to get one more cup that nothing will stop them? Only time will tell, but for mine, consdiering evertything, it's just hard clinically and emotionally for me to not back them.

Prediction: Geelong by 16 points.

4Vman · 22-09-2009, 11:23 AM

Should be a cracker, both play a defensive style of football and stifle their opponent, it will be a low scoring game, and an arm wrestle to the finish.
Prediction: Cats by 9... too much experience in finals, especially the big one.

**Polyal** · 22-09-2009, 11:48 AM

My god, love ya footy?..

I cant put into words how much a flag would mean to me being a loyal saints supporter for all my 26 years on this planet. So many close calls, so much talent and no results.

I saw a small clip with an interview of Rob Harvey, what a legend, shame he couldn't stretch it one more year but you have to pull the pin at some point; he did try to stay as long as he could.

Geelong are a solid side, and talented. St Kilda have just as much hunger and IMO have more star players as a whole.

Perhaps its a case of champion side vs a team of champions? It will be good for the AFL if St Kilda get up, Cats got the Brownlow last night so they cant be too greedy..LOL

Either way it will be a cracker, bring it on!

TS50 · 22-09-2009, 11:50 AM

cats by 22
Too much class

RG · 22-09-2009, 11:54 AM

If they both play their best this will be one for the ages.

Saints by bugger all.

Ghiagirl · 22-09-2009, 12:07 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Polyal

My god, love ya footy?..

I cant put into words how much a flag would mean to me being a loyal saints supporter for all my 26 years on this planet. So many close calls, so much talent and no results.

Either way it will be a cracker, bring it on!

I hear ya!! I have loved the Sainters since the days of Trevor Barker, through to Tony Lockett, to Harvey, Bourke and our current awesome line up with the likes of Riewoldt, Hayes, Del Santo, Montegna...the list goes on.

I sat and cried after our loss in '97', and have been devasted numerous times since when we have often come sooo close, and yet sadly in Sainter form choked once we reach finals!

Well not this year!!! I wholeheartedly believe that 2009 will be the year of the Saints!!! We have the legs, the midfield and the determiniation to see this through. Bring on the clash of the Titans!!

Go Saints!!!

:

Iggypoppin' · 22-09-2009, 12:57 PM

Geelong by 30. Will be fantastic to watch.

sgt_doofey · 22-09-2009, 01:23 PM

Any predictions of a tied game at full time and having to go in to overtime?

BENT_8 · 22-09-2009, 01:33 PM

I'm going for Saints by 30pts.

Although StK only beat Adelaide and the dogs by a small margin i rate both of these teams efficiency and scoring ability better than Geelong.

As has been said, the defence will play the key role early in the game, if StK can withstand the early onslaught and score from the rebound, they'll wear the Cats down.

Geelong has some stars for sure, but i question the mental toughness of a key few who undoubtedly still have scars and q's hanging from last year.

If St Kilda are still with them at the 3qtr break it's all over cats.

Unfortunately this will forever tarnish a great lineup as under achievers.

uranium_death · 22-09-2009, 01:54 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by sgt_doofey

Any predictions of a tied game at full time and having to go in to overtime?

In Grand FInals, there is no overtime.
They will come back a week later to replay the match.

It is all about money..and CHannel 10 will win from it too with advertising and viewers etc.

Mind you, back in 2006 it would have been a disaster if WCE and Sydney drew, because the following Saturday was Bathurst...

uranium_death · 22-09-2009, 01:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Unfortunately this will forever tarnish a great lineup as under achievers.

The sad thing is that St Kilda rightfully deserve the premiership this year due to finishing on top. No question.

I think Geelong shot themselves in the foot last year...

This year I will see as a real bonus.

**buggerlugs** · 22-09-2009, 02:05 PM

It would be good for footy if the Saints won. 2010 Year of the Lions.........

BENT_8 · 22-09-2009, 02:06 PM

To say Geelong shot themselves in the foot is a bit harsh towards Hawthorn, they showed up with the best game plan and walked away with the riches.

Lets not forget Geelongs recent GF win was over a hapless Port who should never have been there anyway.
Their first real GF test was a defeat, to a team with key tall forwards and a tight defence.

Teflon Turbo · 22-09-2009, 02:15 PM

cats for mine, they actually act and look like men unlike those metrosexuals in mercs.

divine_afg · 22-09-2009, 02:16 PM

Go The CATS !!!

BENT_8 · 22-09-2009, 02:19 PM

You obviously missed the footage after last years GF...

Why do you think Max Hudghton is out...

AdzT3-146 · 22-09-2009, 02:40 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RG

If they both play their best this will be one for the ages.

Saints by bugger all.

I tend to agree, saints in an epic.

Wally · 22-09-2009, 03:52 PM

Cold and wet conditions will see the Saints through.

Should be a cracker of a game.

groupcboost · 22-09-2009, 03:57 PM

cause geelong had the pressure of "two in a row" last year there is no pressure on them for this year GEELONG all the way!!!!!!!!!!

**Fordman1** · 22-09-2009, 04:04 PM

Geelong are too good...

25 pts

uranium_death · 22-09-2009, 04:08 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

To say Geelong shot themselves in the foot is a bit harsh towards Hawthorn, they showed up with the best game plan and walked away with the riches.

Lets not forget Geelongs recent GF win was over a hapless Port who should never have been there anyway.
Their first real GF test was a defeat, to a team with key tall forwards and a tight defence.

But Geelong did shoot themselves in the foot. They dominated forward 50 entries in the 2nd quarter for a poor return. Easy shots at goal were missed, and the forward line simply was dysfunctional all day.

Geelong could have had a good lead at half time of at least five goals if they took their chances. They didn't.

That left the game open for Hawthorn who to their credit, took every chance in the third quarter to turn the game their way.

If Geelong had taken their chances in teh 2nd quarter, the momentum of the game would have been far different, and the result could have been completely different too.

It's not sour grapes towards Hawthorn though. They played far better on the day, but the perception would have been different if Geelong had taken their chances and not frittered them away.

**TUF_302** · 22-09-2009, 04:39 PM

Im tipping the Saints in an epic!!

:

BHDOGS · 22-09-2009, 06:17 PM

I dont know who will win but i know that one of these sides will fall apart and will lose by a huge margin ruining all the hype

chrisfpv · 22-09-2009, 06:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RG

If they both play their best this will be one for the ages.

Saints by bugger all.

Have to agree here. My whole family goes for the Saints so let's hope they can finish off a great season with a GF win!

BENT_8 · 22-09-2009, 06:37 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by uranium_death

But Geelong did shoot themselves in the foot. They dominated forward 50 entries in the 2nd quarter for a poor return. Easy shots at goal were missed, and the forward line simply was dysfunctional all day.

Geelong could have had a good lead at half time of at least five goals if they took their chances. They didn't.

That left the game open for Hawthorn who to their credit, took every chance in the third quarter to turn the game their way.

If Geelong had taken their chances in teh 2nd quarter, the momentum of the game would have been far different, and the result could have been completely different too.

It's not sour grapes towards Hawthorn though. They played far better on the day, but the perception would have been different if Geelong had taken their chances and not frittered them away.

Geelong certainly did have the ascendency with forward 50 entries, but the pressure applied in defence during the first half meant the expectation to convert became too great.
Pointless continually banging it forward if the results aren't coming.

The more they went forward without majors, the greater the pressure grew.
Eventually the cracks opened and it all fell apart.

This is where the mental strength plays a part and if faced with this scenario again i fear the demons of doubt will haunt.

I dont believe the weather will benefit either team as both pride themselves on good hands and clean possession, conditions wont help here.

Swordsman88 · 22-09-2009, 06:57 PM

Will be a close game to be sure. I've only got into AFL the last few years (so shoot me, i grew up in Far North QLD) but i know enough to predict a hell of a battle.

I reckon Geelong will get it....but if momentum swings St Kilda's way i think they are in very big trouble.

vztrt · 22-09-2009, 07:05 PM

Been right so far in this finals series (wish I put money on it, lol).

Saints will get up, but I hope its a cracker of a game.

ED Classic · 22-09-2009, 11:50 PM

Maybe cats in a close one but I think if ever anyone has deserved a flag its the Saints with their performance this year

ED Classic · 22-09-2009, 11:55 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Teflon Turbo

cats for mine, they actually act and look like men unlike those metrosexuals in mercs.

Lol so you could get on the field cause you look like a man (Apparently??) and outdo Riewoldt etc...yeah right

Archilino · 23-09-2009, 01:36 AM

weather report for saturday is..13 and thuderstorms/hail. so expect a low scoring slogfest. Be interesting to see how the saints handle those kind of conditions considering they play most of their game at etihad stadium under the closed roof.

As a huge cats fan i expect nothing but a win, must avenge last year. Cats will give it one last crack next year then im guessing alot of retirements will happen, couple that with the new goldcoast and west sydney teams taking all the darft picks for the next 2-3 years it really is now or never..both both teams i suspect.