Australia is living through a long recession

[GASWAGON]

O.k after being a courier for a few months in Vic driving all over Melbourne I started to notice many small and large factories were closed down with For sale and For lease signs up out the front.... In the west was the worst.
Then Ford made its BIG recent announcement and that news was shocking. Now Holden have come out and said they may close down as soon as this year if they do not get government assistance. Unemployment rate has risen to 5.7% (some say its closer to 10%), Centrelink recipients are up 20% more than last year, Internet job adds are down 30%, interest rates being lowered more and more by the month, and new car finance down to 2% and the second hand car market is dead.

As far as I can tell we are already IN a recession and the way things are looking its not going to get better for aloooooong time.

[imugli]

A recession is 2 successive quarters of negative GDP growth. So far, we have (narrowly) managed to avoid that. Growth is definitely slower than it has been, and we may still see contraction, but for the moment, according to the stats, we aren't in a recession. I fact, we haven't seen one now for 22 years...

[Dash_XR]

If it wasn't for China buying up all our land, industry and resources we would of been in recession along time ago.

[vztrt]

Originally Posted by imugli

I fact, we haven't seen one now for 22 years...

We did have a technical recession back during the Asian Financial Crisis. Don't really think anyone noticed it.

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by imugli

A recession is 2 successive quarters of negative GDP growth. So far, we have (narrowly) managed to avoid that. Growth is definitely slower than it has been, and we may still see contraction, but for the moment, according to the stats, we aren't in a recession. In fact, we haven't seen one now for 22 years...

22 years hey, so surely its about time something went sideways for a while.....the bubble cannot be inflated forever?

[blk6t]

Not across all sectors, were still a wealthy and strong economy despite what the media and doom and gloom preachers state.

I manage the development of large land subdivisions (green field sites) within Sydney and we have seen massive growth in the last year and it's not slowing. We cannot keep up with clients buying more land and yelling at us to get it subdivided and ready for new small lot housing. Not only are we developing large areas but they are all pre-sold or selling very fast.

Also builders are rubbing their hands because their expecting a large amount of new land owners wanting their new dream home built ASAP.

But this all does come at a cost and it is very expensive to develop in Sydney, it only becomes really viable in large portions.

The construction industry is usually the first to recede and the first to grow, home loans have risen of recent and I am finally seeing growth in my industry which for a very long time has been stagnant.

[T3ts50]

You want to see a recession, watch the latest top gear episode where they drive through Spain. Very depressing.

[stang65]

The op is right... we have been in a recession for a long time ...government just doesn`t want to say it. Businesses letting people go, retail outlets closing down. Lot`s of vacant shops around Melbourne...The people that still have jobs are blind to it, you only need to speak to people that are looking for work . I see jobs advertised as far back as 6 moths ago being re listed of course they don`t exist.

[FGII-XR6]

we are not in a recession but we and no longer in a booming economy either. too many businesses over capitalise in the boom times and then when the economy slows the go bust. growth is slow at the moment but we are not going backwards ( as you need to be for a recession for 2 quarters) .
the long election campaign has not helped things as there is too muck uncertainty for business confidence. The economy should settle down after the election and to what extent it grows will depend on the result .

[FGII-XR6]

interesting to note the 2 posts that incorrectly state we are in a recession are in Melbourne. so if Melbourne is currently having a rough patch the whole country is in recession?

Originally Posted by stang65

The op is right... we have been in a recession for a long time ...government just doesn`t want to say it. Businesses letting people go, retail outlets closing down. Lot`s of vacant shops around Melbourne...The people that still have jobs are blind to it, you only need to speak to people that are looking for work . I see jobs advertised as far back as 6 moths ago being re listed of course they don`t exist.

[imugli]

There are a number of STATES that are in recession, however the country as a whole is not.

[Lotte]

Originally Posted by au3xr6

interesting to note the 2 posts that incorrectly state we are in a recession are in Melbourne. so if Melbourne is currently having a rough patch the whole country is in recession?

Also forgetting expanding shopping centres like fountain gate, chadstone and highpoint. Smart business are moving into these centres, because that's where the clientele are


As for the factories the op references, not seeing it over east side. Would be interesting to know what the factories that have closed were - and why.

[ZA-289]

Trouble is all this negative talk doesnt help anything.

[XA GS Ute]

Over here in the west things aren't looking to good either. We supply structural steel for all major mining projects across the state & at the moment we've got 130+ guys in the shop sweeping floors etc. With no major projects on the horizon things aren't looking promising. We've actually started looking at commercial work again which in turn doesn't help the smaller companies because they can't compete with us.
Anyway, if you listen to our premier everything is rosy & our workshops are full.

[KIWI-1]

Originally Posted by imugli

There are a number of STATES that are in recession, however the country as a whole is not.

ACT, SA, Vic, WA are.

Western Australia has joined the other AFL states in recession as Australia's annual growth rate slowed to 2.5 per cent in the March quarter – a quarter that could be a turning point for the economy.
Even on the Bureau's preferred trend figures, total demand or spending in WA has fallen for the past two quarters. Victoria experienced a small rebound in seasonally adjusted government and consumer spending, but on the trend figures, its spending has fallen for the past three quarters. It's the same story in South Australia, while in Tasmania, the trend level of spending has fallen for the past six quarters.
Australia's growth is now coming from the State of Origin states and from exports. Whatever the result tonight, the Maroons are now leading the Blues in economic growth and have taken over from WA as Australia's fastest-growing state.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/more-of-australia-now-in-recession-20130605-2npmk.html#ixzz2ZBU9ZRda

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by ZA-289

Trouble is all this negative talk doesnt help anything.

Mate the facts are the facts...Ford AND Holden have told us just how bad things are.... And there's probably even more bad news on the horizon..... Time to batten down the hatches I reckon....This is gunna hurt!

[xe351]

nsw central coast is very slow over the last 12 months, lots looking for work, work hours shortened for those in employment, and business owners saying its the hardest economically they have ever had

[FGII-XR6]

that's the same as the negative talk before the axing of the Falcon. ford could see that and get the impression that if even Ford enthusiasts are negative about the Falcon it's days are done ( thanks guys, you know who you are) . similar things happen with the economy enough negativity kills the economy by killing confidence

Originally Posted by ZA-289

Trouble is all this negative talk doesnt help anything.

[FGII-XR6]

first of all States can't be in recession, recession is a national thing. secondly a reduction in spending is nothing to do with recession a recession is 2 quarters of negative growth meaning basically the country as a whole is looing more money than it earns

Originally Posted by KIWI-1

ACT, SA, Vic, WA are.

Western Australia has joined the other AFL states in recession as Australia's annual growth rate slowed to 2.5 per cent in the March quarter – a quarter that could be a turning point for the economy.
Even on the Bureau's preferred trend figures, total demand or spending in WA has fallen for the past two quarters. Victoria experienced a small rebound in seasonally adjusted government and consumer spending, but on the trend figures, its spending has fallen for the past three quarters. It's the same story in South Australia, while in Tasmania, the trend level of spending has fallen for the past six quarters.
Australia's growth is now coming from the State of Origin states and from exports. Whatever the result tonight, the Maroons are now leading the Blues in economic growth and have taken over from WA as Australia's fastest-growing state.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/more-of-australia-now-in-recession-20130605-2npmk.html#ixzz2ZBU9ZRda

Originally Posted by imugli

There are a number of STATES that are in recession, however the country as a whole is not.

[Paull]

Originally Posted by XA GS Ute

Over here in the west things aren't looking to good either. We supply structural steel for all major mining projects across the state & at the moment we've got 130+ guys in the shop sweeping floors etc. With no major projects on the horizon things aren't looking promising. We've actually started looking at commercial work again which in turn doesn't help the smaller companies because they can't compete with us.
Anyway, if you listen to our premier everything is rosy & our workshops are full.

I deal with a lot of labour supply companies and one thing that is becoming extremely obvious: where these companies used to struggle to find people, they now have at least one person every day of the week knocking on their door looking for work. In that, I am getting queries more and more to see if I need any more labour. Furthermore, with the slowing down of the petroleum industry (a number of projects cancelled) as well as many mining ventures either being cancelled (new projects) or existing mines shutting down, I am seeing many problems that WA will have to face.

What I am also seeing is a very determined push from employers to drive down wages/salaries. A recent case was whereby a fellow knocked back a job where the salary was much less than what he was on: he has just been made redundant and is now looking at the same salaried position that he had knocked back before. The moral, a job is better than no job.

[GASWAGON]

Hang on these big companies can see the writing on the wall... They employ people to look into future markets and work out whats best for the companies.... Running at a loss is not profitable for them is it?

Actually, i'm surprised Ford hav'nt pulled the pin sooner than 2016. The EcoLPi has been a very slow mover.... And that car saves you money everytime you fill the tank!

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by Paull

I deal with a lot of labour supply companies and one thing that is becoming extremely obvious: where these companies used to struggle to find people, they now have at least one person every day of the week knocking on their door looking for work. In that, I am getting queries more and more to see if I need any more labour. Furthermore, with the slowing down of the petroleum industry (a number of projects cancelled) as well as many mining ventures either being cancelled (new projects) or existing mines shutting down, I am seeing many problems that WA will have to face.

What I am also seeing is a very determined push from employers to drive down wages/salaries. A recent case was whereby a fellow knocked back a job where the salary was much less than what he was on: he has just been made redundant and is now looking at the same salaried position that he had knocked back before. The moral, a job is better than no job.

Apparently in the U.S there are millions surviving on working weeks of 30hrs or less....And their wages are being driven down also.... its gotta be coming to this country sooner or later?

[XA GS Ute]

We've got guys coming in looking for work all day every day but the problem is, we're in the same boat as the company that's just laid them off. Luckily, I work for an employer that will only start chopping as a very last resort. Hopefully the boys will remember this type of loyalty when things come good again.

[Wretched]

Originally Posted by XA GS Ute

We've got guys coming in looking for work all day every day but the problem is, we're in the same boat as the company that's just laid them off. Luckily, I work for an employer that will only start chopping as a very last resort. Hopefully the boys will remember this type of loyalty when things come good again.

Sounds like what Toyota in Vic did during the GFC, weathered it, protected their employees...but then there were some bad apples...

[XR Martin]

Alot of businesses are having trouble getting anything greater than 12 month leases in some commercial areas, which is why alot are empty.
The simple reason is that the landlords are fighting to have the land rezoned into residential, where there is greater potential income.

No leases = no leasees = empty properties = Government pressure = rezoning = homes.

This may work in the short term, but when there are no businesses to provide jobs, there wont be anyone able to buy homes.

The over supply of housing hasnt hit yet, but when it does...

[GASWAGON]

The over supply of housing hasnt hit yet, but when it does...

Yep, and like a previous poster said about all the development going on in Sydney... When the country comes to a halt and those people lose there jobs ther will be mass mortgage defaults and those estates will be ghost estates all half finished with not many living there at all.

[GASWAGON]

Originally Posted by EF_6

The over supply of housing hasnt hit yet, but when it does...

Yep, and like a previous poster said about all the development going on in Sydney... When the country comes to a halt and those people lose there jobs ther will be mass mortgage defaults and those estates will be ghost estates all half finished with not many living there at all.

Sydney is THE MOST overpriced, over populated, condensed ***** for traffic city in the country too.....why the bloody hell would you live there!

[zilo]

My son has just returned from WA.

Cannot find any work in the last 4 months.

Not even a Bunnings/JB hifi/etc job.

What's this 457 thingey?

[monte.b]

[QUOTE=blk6t;4813414]Not across all sectors, were still a wealthy and strong economy despite what the media and doom and gloom preachers state.

I manage the development of large land subdivisions (green field sites) within Sydney and we have seen massive growth in the last year and it's not slowing. We cannot keep up with clients buying more land and yelling at us to get it subdivided and ready for new small lot housing. Not only are we developing large areas but they are all pre-sold or selling very fast.

Also builders are rubbing their hands because their expecting a large amount of new land owners wanting their new dream home built ASAP.

But this all does come at a cost and it is very expensive to develop in Sydney, it only becomes really viable in large portions.



Well thats where all the illegal arrivals want to live ,with all their brothers and sisters ,they have to live somewhere ,i reckon better there than here ,Its very quiet here too ,lots of empty shops ,lots of people looking for work and lots of bums not looking just doing break and enters for a living supported by the gove dole

[JG34JA]

There will be times when it seems every 2nd house on the street is for sale and buyers just can't be found. There will be times when 4000+ applicants apply for 21 jobs. If you are lucky you will start employment in boom times, if you are unlucky you will start in a bust. It comes and goes around. What is more of an anomaly is that since the mid/late 90's it's been almost constant boom.