Toyota vs electric lobby

Sprintey · 02-09-2023, 05:02 PM

What is everyone's opinion on the war of words going on between Toyota and various groups and bodies criticising them in not electrifying fast enough?

eg

https://www.drive.com.au/news/toyota...-groups-again/

Are Toyota going the way of the dinosaur because they are way too late, with the wrong strategy? Or are these groups rent-a-crowd for Big Electricity? Is Toyota's multiple fuel source strategy going to prove correct, or is stuff like the hydrogen focus a result of Japan being deficient in rare earth minerals and lithium reserves, but well connected in nuclear power and gas reserves? (On the way to our carbon zero future, how do you feel about being warned about brown-outs already, in the upcoming Vic summer: is it a price you are willing to pay?)

I'm agnostic on this one. For many years it was Ford and the Aussie car industry in the media and opinion cross-hairs: now that industry is gone. I don't particularly care about the result of this one. Normally this thread would go into the electric car category, but I reckon it's bigger than that: it's a fight to see how society will power itself in the future.

Will Toyota be proven right or wrong?

**kypez** · 02-09-2023, 06:09 PM

I think Toyota have lost their way and squandered their lead. They'll keep making a profit till people start to move away.

Fuel prices are getting silly and people have seen how much cheaper EVs are to own and operate.

Toyota are releasing EVs so not sure why they are digging in on the ICE. Maybe the issues they are having with their EVs make them realise it isn't so easy to build an EV.

Franco Cozzo · 02-09-2023, 06:30 PM

I don't put Toyota and innovation in the same sentence together, they're a white goods manufacturer for the masses.

I think this is just straight out of their playbook to keep the current status quo going that they're leading.

Itsme · 02-09-2023, 07:12 PM

I agree with Toyota, EV's alone are not going to solve the worlds problems with emissions, power demand and supply is the bigger issue.

BENT_8 · 03-09-2023, 09:20 AM

When the grid goes down and the Tesla drivers cant get to the lab, old mate in his Camry hybrid will still get to bowls.

Theres a reason they sell at 2+:1

MrEL · 03-09-2023, 09:43 AM

E85 and flex fuel was the way of the future.
LPG was the way of the future.
Diesel was the way of the future.
How did they all turn out?
EVs are still in their infancy stages in society.
As the takeup gets more there will be a massive game of domino's going on as all the shortfalls rear their head more and more.
ICE is a known quantity.
A smart company will keep a foot in both camps instead of putting all their eggs in one basket.

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 09:58 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

When the grid goes down and the Tesla drivers cant get to the lab, old mate in his Camry hybrid will still get to bowls.

Theres a reason they sell at 2+:1

Maybe you should read up and see that the Camry is being outsold by the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y.

One day you'll say something accurate. Today isn't that day.

deesun · 03-09-2023, 10:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by MrEL

E85 and flex fuel was the way of the future.
LPG was the way of the future.
Diesel was the way of the future.
How did they all turn out?
EVs are still in their infancy stages in society.
As the takeup gets more there will be a massive game of domino's going on as all the shortfalls rear their head more and more.
ICE is a known quantity.
A smart company will keep a foot in both camps instead of putting all their eggs in one basket.

Part of the difference is that the manufacturers have nearly all said they will be all EV by a certain year. Also Countries are already banning the sale of ICE/Deisel also by a certain date. This never happened with LPG etc.

BENT_8 · 03-09-2023, 10:13 AM

I just spent the week in the far north of SA, up around Maree, beautiful country, so quiet...until 2 days in when the distant hum of a stationary diesel engine broke the tranquility.
Whats that I asked the station hand, gen sets kicked in, batteries low..
No shortage of solar panels and barely a cloud in the sky for 5 days, even got to 29* im told, beautiful weather.

The hum continued for the remainder of the week though.

Out there its no country for electric vehicles yet, Landcruiser and Hilux utes we're the chariot of choice, the late model diesel Triton sitting in the machinery shed was unloved and soon to be on the market they said, you can have it for $20k.

We saw 4wd's of every kind on the way up, pulling the customary 20' offroad van covered in bulldust but I reckon its the first week in atleast 2 years that I didnt see a Tesla, well, not until one poked its nose out at the Pt Germein turn off on our way home, mind you, they've destroyed the landscape in the mid north 'round them parts with wind farms and battery banks so thats not surprising, dont cut it in the bush though.

Will be diesel country for a while yet I reckon.

BENT_8 · 03-09-2023, 10:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kypez

Maybe you should read up and see that the Camry is being outsold by the Tesla Model 3 and Model Y.

One day you'll say something accurate. Today isn't that day.

Lol, umm, no one wants sedans mate, hows the 3 and Y going against hybrid Rav4?

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 10:24 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Lol, umm, no one wants sedans mate, hows the 3 and Y going against hybrid Rav4?

Er... Y outsold the RAV4. Do you even research anything before posting? Model Y was the highest selling car in the world last year and Q1 this year.

chrisc9 · 03-09-2023, 10:26 AM

I agree with Itsme. Toyota realize that we as a planet cannot produce enough batteries to make the change in a relatively short time. Not enough Lithium/Cobalt/Nickel/Copper etc, and with an average of 10-20 years to get any mine approved and producing, electric dreams are going to stay just that for the masses for a l o n g time to come. I'm sure we will change to something, and its source of energy may come from a battery, but in the mean time i'd be surprised if any major car manufacturer will ditch the ICE entirely in the next 25 years.

lra · 03-09-2023, 10:31 AM

Agree with Bent 8 on this, having just been around Birdsville and Innamincka during the last few weeks ..........Toyota country.
Plenty of Solar panels at Innamincka, but the diesel generators take over at night to provide all the home comforts we are used to.

Electric cars to save the planet .............. tell 'em they're dreamin'.
Just don't mention bushfires, wars, volcanoes, industry in 'developing' countries ..........

BENT_8 · 03-09-2023, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kypez

Er... Y outsold the RAV4. Do you even research anything before posting? Model Y was the highest selling car in the world last year and Q1 this year.

By a few hundred with ongoing supply issues for the Rav, I noticed your Y sales halved from the month prior though and your 3 also halved in July too.
Wasnt that long ago Tesla only posted figures quarterly, obviously they've been filling Covid delay back orders recently and posted monthly to look like they're gaining traction but July suggests the orders are filled and reality has returned.

Lets be honest though, Tesla only have to concentrate on a few offerings that barely equate to top 7 on a normal month whereas Toyota is busy at no1 selling 20k of its varients.

**Rallye Sport** · 03-09-2023, 11:45 AM

Only 5 posts before it all went to ****, sadly not a record for an EV related thread.

Sprintey · 03-09-2023, 12:08 PM

I reckon it's not going too bad all things considered.

A divergence of views. Kypez makes a good point Toyota will keep going until they won't. (If that is to be true). A variant of the "slowly, then all at once," kind of thing.

Power bills are going up at eye watering %s - some of this is for the massive build out of grid that will be required. A peek at AGL's recent results presentation shows they are confident to raise a greater amount of earnings (read: pain for us) in the next year, and some of that is required for grid expansion.

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 12:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Sprintey

I reckon it's not going too bad all things considered.

A divergence of views. Kypez makes a good point Toyota will keep going until they won't. (If that is to be true). A variant of the "slowly, then all at once," kind of thing.

Power bills are going up at eye watering %s - some of this is for the massive build out of grid that will be required. A peek at AGL's recent results presentation shows they are confident to raise a greater amount of earnings (read: pain for us) in the next year, and some of that is required for grid expansion.

Power bills, whilst expensive, are still cheaper than petrol (for now). And if you invest in solar, well that changes everything.

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 12:24 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

By a few hundred with ongoing supply issues for the Rav, I noticed your Y sales halved from the month prior though and your 3 also halved in July too.

Wasnt that long ago Tesla only posted figures quarterly, obviously they've been filling Covid delay back orders recently and posted monthly to look like they're gaining traction but July suggests the orders are filled and reality has returned.

Lets be honest though, Tesla only have to concentrate on a few offerings that barely equate to top 7 on a normal month whereas Toyota is busy at no1 selling 20k of its varients.

I like how you keep trying to change the parameters.

If you look at RAV4 between ICE and Hybrid vs Model Y, the chasm will be huge.

Simply put, hybrid RAV4 doesn't even warrant a mention against the model Y.

Just look at YTD for Y with 10 ships arriving this month. Compare that to Hybrid RAV4.

OT Toyota are hoping that other manufacturers follow them down the hole they're digging. Unfortunately, most others are not.

Next...

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 12:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

I just spent the week in the far north of SA, up around Maree, beautiful country, so quiet...until 2 days in when the distant hum of a stationary diesel engine broke the tranquility.

Whats that I asked the station hand, gen sets kicked in, batteries low..

No shortage of solar panels and barely a cloud in the sky for 5 days, even got to 29* im told, beautiful weather.

The hum continued for the remainder of the week though.

Out there its no country for electric vehicles yet, Landcruiser and Hilux utes we're the chariot of choice, the late model diesel Triton sitting in the machinery shed was unloved and soon to be on the market they said, you can have it for $20k.

We saw 4wd's of every kind on the way up, pulling the customary 20' offroad van covered in bulldust but I reckon its the first week in atleast 2 years that I didnt see a Tesla, well, not until one poked its nose out at the Pt Germein turn off on our way home, mind you, they've destroyed the landscape in the mid north 'round them parts with wind farms and battery banks so thats not surprising, dont cut it in the bush though.

Will be diesel country for a while yet I reckon.

There are 14 million cars in Australia and 800,000 odd Caravans/trailers/RVs.

It's funny that everyone goes on about the minority being an issue except when it suits the conversation.

BENT_8 · 03-09-2023, 01:25 PM

Kypez, you're picking a fight with the wrong bloke mate, when Bossxr8 was busy sinking the boot into you and Elon I was in your corner and still believe they will be the way of the future, but in the meantime, I believe Toyota has the right strategy for this country at this point in time as we cant all afford entry level cars in the 60k price bracket or rely on power companies keeping recharging affordable.
Australia is a long way behind in infrastructure because we have a small population spread around a big country, it'll take time to get close to a situation where we can ditch ICE vehicles.

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 01:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Kypez, you're picking a fight with the wrong bloke mate, when Bossxr8 was busy sinking the boot into you and Elon I was in your corner and still believe they will be the way of the future, but in the meantime, I believe Toyota has the right strategy for this country at this point in time as we cant all afford entry level cars in the 60k price bracket or rely on power companies keeping recharging affordable.

Australia is a long way behind in infrastructure because we have a small population spread around a big country, it'll take time to get close to a situation where we can ditch ICE vehicles.

Boss is upset with anything that isn't Falcon really. And not picking a fight at all. Just a discussion. Apologies if it came out as picking a fight; as always, it wasn't my intent.

I'm just saying that Toyota will start to lose market share. I don't believe they have the right mix for the future, even in this country. They'll hold their lead till they won't.

You remember how Ford and Holden had the right mix for Australia till they didn't. I foresee a similar fate for Toyota unless they change their long term plans.

BENT_8 · 03-09-2023, 02:34 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by kypez

Boss is upset with anything that isn't Falcon really. And not picking a fight at all. Just a discussion. Apologies if it came out as picking a fight; as always, it wasn't my intent.

I'm just saying that Toyota will start to lose market share. I don't believe they have the right mix for the future, even in this country. They'll hold their lead till they won't.

You remember how Ford and Holden had the right mix for Australia till they didn't. I foresee a similar fate for Toyota unless they change their long term plans.

But they aren't yet, its all the others that are losing it to Tesla and MG in the cheaper market.
Toyota don't need to be the innovators, they'll rely on their staunch supporter base that don't bother looking sideways and have plenty of market share to insulate them in the meantime.
When the time comes, and I can assure you they'd have done the numbers, they'll ramp up change.

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 04:16 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by BENT_8

But they aren't yet, its all the others that are losing it to Tesla and MG in the cheaper market.

Toyota don't need to be the innovators, they'll rely on their staunch supporter base that don't bother looking sideways and have plenty of market share to insulate them in the meantime.

When the time comes, and I can assure you they'd have done the numbers, they'll ramp up change.

A significant portion of the model Y/3 buyers are ex Toyota buyers whether RAV, Camry or Kluger. More than any other brand, it's Toyota losing those loyal customers to EVs.

Literally every Tesla owner I know has moved from a Toyota.

ivorya · 03-09-2023, 07:28 PM

It's well known, especially in the US that Toyota has been lobbying polititions very hard for them to move away from EVs and to keep ICE.
Many within the industry have mentioned that Toyota had placed all their investment $$ into H2 fuel cell technology leaving them years behind dedicated EV manufacturers.

prydey · 03-09-2023, 08:03 PM

While the world debates climate and transitioning to alternative fuels/power, China continues to give the 2 finger salute and do their own thing. Coal power stations aren't being shut down but rather, popping up at an alarming rate.

https://energyandcleanair.org/public...20construction.

They read the script but threw it in the bin. They decided they need reliable power.

lamborghinifan · 03-09-2023, 08:41 PM

The world is bigger then AUS. what we do doesn’t make a real difference. There’s a whole lot of the world that doesn’t have a proper power infrastructure to support EVs. the rich west will barely (or not?) stay in front of it. I still think Toyota will be selling to Africa/pacific/Middle East/Asia for quite some time yet.

smoo · 03-09-2023, 09:39 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by lamborghinifan

The world is bigger then AUS. what we do doesn’t make a real difference. There’s a whole lot of the world that doesn’t have a proper power infrastructure to support EVs. the rich west will barely (or not?) stay in front of it. I still think Toyota will be selling to Africa/pacific/Middle East/Asia for quite some time yet.

Yeah, and it took over twenty post to point this out.
Who would have thought the world is more than just the self absorbed west.
The big question is, what will dry up sooner…

The supply of the earths minerals to produce EV batteries.
Toyotas global market share.
The prosperity of the West.

The wests determination to legislate itself into poverty and curtail freedom of movement by green politics will see it in a more precarious situation than anything else.
That is before taking into account the huge ****storm on the wests doorstep with the upcoming demographic change.

b0son · 03-09-2023, 09:58 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smoo

The supply of the earths minerals to produce EV batteries.

To produce lithium-ion batteries. Dont assume the current battery shortcomings will persist into the next generation (sodium-ion?) of batteries.

smoo · 03-09-2023, 10:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by b0son

To produce lithium-ion batteries. Dont assume the current battery shortcomings will persist into the next generation (sodium-ion?) of batteries.

When it happens.
Can you give us a date when entry level EVs are running this next Gen battery tech?

**kypez** · 03-09-2023, 10:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smoo

When it happens.

Can you give us a date when entry level EVs are running this next Gen battery tech?

Very soon. They're cheaper to produce. Just like most entry level batteries abandoned Cobalt and run LFP batteries now rather than NCA, the same will be of the new Silicon based batteries.