Oil Conspiracy

[Mark351]

Everyone loves a good conspiracy theory, so here's one.

The US, with it's own liquid crude oil supplies all but dried up, looks to the middle east to source most of it's supply - and has done so now for decades. What it can't control diplomatically, it controls by force (Iraq, maybe Iran...) But it's running out.

However, there is oil out there. The US alone has 1 trillion barrels of shale oil - enough to last a century. In the past, the price to extract it has not made it worthwhile to do so - not anymore. Canada has 1.7 trillion barrels of oil sands. Australia itself has 24 billion barrels of shale oil - and then there's the oil that can now be extracted from coal, which we have so much of we practically sell it for a pittance.

But perhaps, it's just better to continue to let the Arabs pump out theirs, selling it at a price that US corporations still earn big profits from, even if a few arabic families and their small nations get rich at the same time. When that arabic oil does run dry, guess who in control of the primary reserves left in the world? The good old USA and it's closest allies. The world is so accustomed to the high prices, they can happily dig it all up and make a killing serving the worlds needs.

The one bump in the oily road though is the current greenhouse hysteria. But once that 'blows over', it's back to turning black into green.

Discuss.

[GT 4eva]

you're probably not far off there

[ON_DUBS]

In the event of WAR and we can't get any oil from the middle east we will have our own reserves.

I'm sure that is partly the reason.

[Fairlane]

Shale oil and tar sands take a shed load of energy (electricity from coal, not to mention the diesel used to power machinery) to create, creates some serious environmental problems, plus the technology is not their to make it in quantities to meet overall demand. Same with biofuels and ethanols.

The price rises are about supply and demand, information about supply is obviously restricted, no one really knows the quantity of oil the Saudi's really have, they hold their cards close to their cheat. In the long run though i wouldnt touch oil shares with a 50ft barge pole. Oil is not the future-simple as that. The oil companies will bleed it for as long as possible over the next 20 years or so and bail, why do think they arent building any more refineries or major infrastrasture, they know oil as a major energy source is finished, Fuel usage declined in the US last year, and the future of oil is pretty bleak.

[King Nothing]

Mate I agree, in fact I posted something similar in one of the petrol/oil price discussion threads. It makes massive strategic sense to do so. And Fairlane, sorry but I don't agree. There is just too much money still sitting out there. There is hundreds of trillions of dollars worth, what company would turn that potential down? What government would turn down the economic power it would hold over the world, let alone income from fuel tax.

At a conference I was at, several experts said that we would be dependant on fossil fuels for at least the next 50 years. There is just too much money and power (both politically and physically) there to ignore. Shale oil/tar sands/coal to oil is in its infancy, give it 10 years and we will be in full swing.

[new2ford]

Originally Posted by King Nothing

Shale oil/tar sands/coal to oil is in its infancy, give it 10 years and we will be in full swing.

Shale oil was produced at Newnes and Glen Davis in NSW from 1906-1952: hardly in its infancy!

Australia's best bet is to focus on its naturally available fuel sources: coal, gas, hydro, solar, wind, uranium (and try not to flog them all overseas before we get to really needing them).

[El Sucio]

The world's big problem is America's spiralling conomy.

Unfortunately for the world; the vast majority (basicaly all) commodities traded on the world stage are traded in US dollars. As the US economy goes down the drain (due to sub prime crisis, war, lack of consumer confidence) the value of a $1.00 US is decreasing against the values of other currencies and all commodities.

SO the price of a barrel of oil goes up against the US dollar. This causes inflation around the world as EVERYTHING (yes, EVERYTHING!!!) that we buy, grow, make requires oil to make it (crops, cars, plastics, pharmeceuticals, etc).

The US requires oil more than nearly any other country on the earth. With their failing economy, and the increasing cost of a barrel of oil, the only option they have is to print more money - a lot more money - to ensure their oil reserves are maintained. As soon as they print more money, the first thing they buy with it is oil. Many investors/speculators know this and are currently enjoying the rising value of a barrel of oil.

Unfotunately for the US, they don't really have many other options at the moment...the lack of effective/smart government control over their economy means that this will happen occasionally.

And they will take the rest of us with them unfortunately. The inflationary effect of the oil pricing will continue to take it's toll across the globe. People will need to spend more on food and basic neccessities just to survive, and will have less to spend on electronics/toys/etc. We already know that most of Africa is totally f*ked, always has been since the Europeans were kicked out, so starvtion there will just get worse. Unfortunately relatively stable countries such as Egypt will be hit next. Already the poverty line in these 2nd world countries is reching up into the middle class with doctors and teachers barely able to buy enough food to keep their families healthy.

Even the big booming economies like China and India will feel the harsh effects. With fewer people willing to buy their goods and services across the globe, their economic growth will fail and they will plateau. If the worst happens and America falls into depression, then the above effects will be far FAR worse.

The only way I see us getting out of the current predicament is to change the measure by which all commodities are traded. When the yard stick that has been used for nearly the last century becomes worthless (the US Dollar) it is time to change to something more stable. Looking back over the past few decades, the Pound Sterling would be a good substitute, perhaps even Gold would be better. This would enable the global market to stabilise/reset and leave the great US Empire to crumble apart (much like previous empires British, Spanish, Roman, etc).

I don't see this happening though. The UN/World Bank/US Government have a tight grip on pretty much ALL global trading terms, and if anyone with any power came out with an idea like the above they would probably be taken out (I think I can hear helicopters approaching ha ha ha).

There is currently no problem with supply or demand of oil. We humans will happily keep on consuming until we get the last drop. Exploration costs are increasing for future oil deposits but current oil output is cranking along cheaply enough.

My 2 cents worth.

[King Nothing]

Originally Posted by new2ford

Shale oil was produced at Newnes and Glen Davis in NSW from 1906-1952: hardly in its infancy!

Australia's best bet is to focus on its naturally available fuel sources: coal, gas, hydro, solar, wind, uranium (and try not to flog them all overseas before we get to really needing them).

In terms of todays commercial-scale production, it is. There is only one major tar sands project I know of (Canada), which has only recently become a majorly profitable business after half a century. There is a couple of rotary kiln type reactors that use shale oil in eastern europe, and I think something in South America. Absolutly tiny compared to the traditional oil sources.

Australia has a few billion barrels of shale oil. The money is there, and as soon as the technology is improved on a commercial scale (which it will be, don't worry. The US has too much of it), we will start pumping the stuff out. Coal will be massive as well, once coal to liquid technology gets off the ground. Hydro, solar and wind I think will play a part in our energy needs, but will not supply baseline loads for some time yet. All this will probably involve carbon sequestration.

China has recently comission hundreds of thousands of MWs worth of coal fired power stations, they won't be turning them off any time soon. So sequestration will be a big player soon, even if it isn't all that effective. Which is good for us, being a massive exporter of coal