GT Price inflation conspiracy theory >>>>>

[SA_GT]

Price inflation conspiracy theory

I have this theory, call it paranoid if you like but, what are you thoughts on this?

You may well have noticed in recent years the upward trend in the pricing of the XW and XY models in particular the GT and GTHO models to a point that the genuine buyer has been almost priced out of the market place by, shall we say individuals with more dollars then sense paying ridiculous prices for some examples.
This being said & on the other side of the coin, only some 18 months ago there was an attempt to devalue certain models by creating the impression that some cars were not considered to be the genuine article, i.e. the South African Fairmont GT.

Interestingly enough, many of the now repatriated South African Fairmont GT’s were purchased by these types of ‘Baby Boomer and Entrepreneur Investors’ and they are now sitting on them until they ride the current wave of over inflated prices.

:

[fatxagt]

Well i read that theory a few times and it still didnt really make alot of sense to me (could be the beers). Mate its just a car. Enjoy it for what it is and let the w*nkers worry about what they are worth in the overpriced market place.

I do feel sorry for the people that are in the same situation now as i was 4 years ago when i bought my GT. Back then I could buy the best XA-B for about 15K. Pricey for an old car, but still within reach. That 15K is now about 40K. Well out of reach for most working class people. Buts thats how it is now. Not much anyone can do about it.

Ok i just read it again and now im confused, I think I have had to many beers

[prydey]

its definitely not the beers mate

[fatxagt]

Phew, Mite have a few more then

[Scott]

I think so too. Not just GT's either. The money is ridiculous and totally out of sync with the rest of the world.

[SA_GT]

Originally Posted by fatxagt

Well i read that theory a few times and it still didnt really make alot of sense to me (could be the beers). Mate its just a car. Enjoy it for what it is and let the w*nkers worry about what they are worth in the overpriced market place.

I do feel sorry for the people that are in the same situation now as i was 4 years ago when i bought my GT. Back then I could buy the best XA-B for about 15K. Pricey for an old car, but still within reach. That 15K is now about 40K. Well out of reach for most working class people. Buts thats how it is now. Not much anyone can do about it.

Ok i just read it again and now im confused, I think I have had to many beers

No you got the drift alright, I'll go back to my beers now! lol

[SA_GT]

Originally Posted by GTP006

I think so too. Not just GT's either. The money is ridiculous and totally out of sync with the rest of the world.

Ain't that the truth!

[Interceptor]

IMO the investor types are the scum of the earth abusing the system and i have no dramas with the idea of the market falling flat on its face...... i bought my sprint knowing it wouldnt loose much value, but the value wasnt what concerned me, i wanted a good daily driver!

[Tony xa]

Owners doing this also seems to help this push as well .I seem to recall theards started or steered into this same area by you in the past .My advise would be to stop pushing the increase and just wait for it to happen on its own .


Take alook at these previous posts and tell me where this thread is going .
http://www.fordforums.com.au/search....archid=2278253

[sleekism]

Yeah the XY GTHO was a gorgeous looking car but it still IS a 15 second car and from what I have heard from interviews with Moffat the handling was ordinary at best.

My main question is whether they drive these cars or do they just sit in the garage? If it really is about baby boomer nostalgia than are they really going to enjoy it if they just unloaded half a million and are too scared to get a scratch on it.

People might not be of the same opinion but I believe if i was a millionare I would just by a XY GT replica and work the engine and personalise the car to my own taste. I think I would have a lot more personalising a car and been able to flog at wide open throttle without the worry of wrecking it.

Admittedly though I would be suckered into paying a ridiculous amount for a 1969 Plymouth Roadrunner 426 Hemi. I think everyone has a soft spot for hemis.......

[|||]

tha SAs GTs were looked down apon because not much info was out there on them. they were cheap because most of the clubs didnt allow them.

then some people with a bit of sway in the gt movement started researching them and convinced the clubs that they should be classed as gts.

those who did the reseach got in early enough to score some bargains.

as for the prices in general, expensive gts are nothing new. ph3s were out of the reach of "genuine buyers" 10 years ago when they were $80,000.

no conspiracy. just the laws of economics at work

[flappist]

Investors buy things that they think will appreciate and therefore turn a profit. The only reason why GTHOs have gone ballistic in price is all the wannabes constantly raving about them.

The economy goes in cycles. Many of the GTs and GTHOs are on the never never and when interest rates go too high they will be for sale all over the place and no one will be buying except the really rich buggers who are really rich because they don't pay $1M for a car that they can buy for $200k or less if they wait.

Now before a true believer arcs up, this is how it works.

You are well off. You own $10,000,000 worth of property and owe $5,000,000 to the banks. You are worth $5,000,000. You are serviceing this $5M debt at $100k/mth which is within your means and life is groovy.
You buy an immaculate GTHO for $700k. It is pure horn.

Interest rates go up. Economy slows.

Your payments are now $150k/mth e.g. 10% => 15% (this is not exact but is indicative)

Your income falls as the economy slows.

You are cash dry.

Your property value is falling as no one in buying (interest is too high) and comparable properties are being firesold hell, west and crooked.

Your $10M is only worth $5.5M. The banks get nervous and want the principle reduced. You need cash NOW or risk loosing everything. Someone turns up with $300k CASH and offers it for your GTHO. You tell then to get stuffed.
Your property drops to $4.9M. The bank gives you 28 days to find $500k or they forclose.
The buyer turns up with $200k for the car plus $300k secured loan over one of your properties.
All your GT buddies say don't do it you are being screwed (and you are) but there is no plan B, your GT buddies have there own problems (and would probably screw you too if they could afford it).
You HAVE to do it so you sell the GTHO.

Interest rates go down. Your property appreciates. You payments drop. You pay off the $300k secured loan but you lose the GTHO.

This is what has happend before (1987, 1998 and other times that did not affect me) and will happen again.

Do you hate the buyer? He "STOLE" your GTHO didn't he? Of did he save you from bankrupcy when you over extended yourself.

This is not specific to GTHOs or even motor vehicles. Aircraft, boats, art, antiques and whatever all suffer the same fate.

Welcome to capitalism........

[FTE217]

hehe Flappist the cycle of life !

[SA_GT]

Originally Posted by Tony xa

Owners doing this also seems to help this push as well .I seem to recall theards started or steered into this same area by you in the past .My advise would be to stop pushing the increase and just wait for it to happen on its own .


Take alook at these previous posts and tell me where this thread is going .
http://www.fordforums.com.au/search....archid=2278253

Yes you are correct Tony,
At the time it could be viewed that I was trying to up the prices however, I can assure you and all out there that it was not the case, call it naive of me if you like as I believed at the time as I do now that the South African GT is a true Grand Tourer and should not have been getting sledged to the degree it was at that time, it was unjustified rubbish as you know it is. As for the price hikes on the SA GT, they will naturally progress upwards as supply and demand dictates, I have no control over that, I am just 1 owner with my own set of views on cars originality.
My point to those posts was: ‘How many South African GT’s were wreaked for parts or converted into Australian GT clones?’
My prior posts also suggested the original South African specifications were in future to be the most desirable by the collector, so to that end I am guilty of stating fact not fiction.

I have always viewed these cars as an affordable alternative to the Australian built GT and that is still the case. As an owner, if I sold my South African GT today for $60K, it would be for what I have now spent on it thus far. So how have my posts benefited me financially?

Thanks for your feedback
Regards
Pete

[Bent8]

Originally Posted by flappist

Investors buy things that they think will appreciate and therefore turn a profit. The only reason why GTHOs have gone ballistic in price is all the wannabes constantly raving about them.

The economy goes in cycles. Many of the GTs and GTHOs are on the never never and when interest rates go too high they will be for sale all over the place and no one will be buying except the really rich buggers who are really rich because they don't pay $1M for a car that they can buy for $200k or less if they wait.

Now before a true believer arcs up, this is how it works.

You are well off. You own $10,000,000 worth of property and owe $5,000,000 to the banks. You are worth $5,000,000. You are serviceing this $5M debt at $100k/mth which is within your means and life is groovy.
You buy an immaculate GTHO for $700k. It is pure horn.

Interest rates go up. Economy slows.

Your payments are now $150k/mth e.g. 10% => 15% (this is not exact but is indicative)

Your income falls as the economy slows.

You are cash dry.

Your property value is falling as no one in buying (interest is too high) and comparable properties are being firesold hell, west and crooked.

Your $10M is only worth $5.5M. The banks get nervous and want the principle reduced. You need cash NOW or risk loosing everything. Someone turns up with $300k CASH and offers it for your GTHO. You tell then to get stuffed.
Your property drops to $4.9M. The bank gives you 28 days to find $500k or they forclose.
The buyer turns up with $200k for the car plus $300k secured loan over one of your properties.
All your GT buddies say don't do it you are being screwed (and you are) but there is no plan B, your GT buddies have there own problems (and would probably screw you too if they could afford it).
You HAVE to do it so you sell the GTHO.

Interest rates go down. Your property appreciates. You payments drop. You pay off the $300k secured loan but you lose the GTHO.

This is what has happend before (1987, 1998 and other times that did not affect me) and will happen again.

Do you hate the buyer? He "STOLE" your GTHO didn't he? Of did he save you from bankrupcy when you over extended yourself.

This is not specific to GTHOs or even motor vehicles. Aircraft, boats, art, antiques and whatever all suffer the same fate.

Welcome to capitalism........

Excellent post flappist...I just want to add a few points also worth considering in today's extremely volatile market place...

1. Inflation is a result of money NOT being backed by precious metals (Gold, Silver) which is why it's losing it's value so fast, this is compounded even further when the banks flood the markets with more fiat money so it doesn't collapse.

2. The US dollar has lost 66% of it's value since September 11, 2001. In other words, if you had $1US in 2001, it is now worth 33 cents!! Every time Gold prices rise, it means the dollar has just lost a little more of it's value, simple.

3. The Stock market, which is really just an indicator of consumer confidence, is manipulated by the big fish (the bankers that fund our Govt's) and they are the only one's making any real gains in the market because they can create money out of thin air!! Some of their techniques include creating wars where they fund both sides, manufactured recessions and other global scams such as the proposed global warming tax :

So in conclusion, the theory that GTHO prices are out of control is not true, it's the rapid devaluation of the US dollar which is causing the prices to rise...

[Piotr]

Originally Posted by Bent8

Excellent post flappist...I just want to add a few points also worth considering in today's extremely volatile market place...

1. Inflation is a result of money NOT being backed by precious metals (Gold, Silver) which is why it's losing it's value so fast, this is compounded even further when the banks flood the markets with more fiat money so it doesn't collapse.

2. The US dollar has lost 66% of it's value since September 11, 2001. In other words, if you had $1US in 2001, it is now worth 33 cents!! Every time Gold prices rise, it means the dollar has just lost a little more of it's value, simple.

3. The Stock market, which is really just an indicator of consumer confidence, is manipulated by the big fish (the bankers that fund our Govt's) and they are the only one's making any real gains in the market because they can create money out of thin air!! Some of their techniques include creating wars where they fund both sides, manufactured recessions and other global scams such as the proposed global warming tax :

So in conclusion, the theory that GTHO prices are out of control is not true, it's the rapid devaluation of the US dollar which is causing the prices to rise...

LOL, WTF are you smoking

[GasoLane]

Please dont shout, I have a headache...(from reading flappist's theories)

Originally Posted by SA_GT

Yes you are correct Tony,
At the time it could be viewed that I was trying to up the prices however, I can assure you and all out there that it was not the case, call it naive of me if you like as I believed at the time as I do now that the South African GT is a true Grand Tourer and should not have been getting sledged to the degree it was at that time, it was unjustified rubbish as you know it is. As for the price hikes on the SA GT, they will naturally progress upwards as supply and demand dictates, I have no control over that, I am just 1 owner with my own set of views on cars originality.
My point to those posts was: ‘How many South African GT’s were wreaked for parts or converted into Australian GT clones?’
My prior posts also suggested the original South African specifications were in future to be the most desirable by the collector, so to that end I am guilty of stating fact not fiction.

I have always viewed these cars as an affordable alternative to the Australian built GT and that is still the case. As an owner, if I sold my South African GT today for $60K, it would be for what I have now spent on it thus far. So how have my posts benefited me financially?

Thanks for your feedback
Regards
Pete

[sprjenkins]

its supply and demand, if people didn't pay the dollars they wouldn't be sold for that much, all i'm hearing is jealousy that others can afford it and you can't

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by flappist

Investors buy things that they think will appreciate and therefore turn a profit. The only reason why GTHOs have gone ballistic in price is all the wannabes constantly raving about them.

The economy goes in cycles. Many of the GTs and GTHOs are on the never never and when interest rates go too high they will be for sale all over the place and no one will be buying except the really rich buggers who are really rich because they don't pay $1M for a car that they can buy for $200k or less if they wait.

Now before a true believer arcs up, this is how it works.

You are well off. You own $10,000,000 worth of property and owe $5,000,000 to the banks. You are worth $5,000,000. You are serviceing this $5M debt at $100k/mth which is within your means and life is groovy.
You buy an immaculate GTHO for $700k. It is pure horn.

Interest rates go up. Economy slows.

Your payments are now $150k/mth e.g. 10% => 15% (this is not exact but is indicative)

Your income falls as the economy slows.

You are cash dry.

Your property value is falling as no one in buying (interest is too high) and comparable properties are being firesold hell, west and crooked.

Your $10M is only worth $5.5M. The banks get nervous and want the principle reduced. You need cash NOW or risk loosing everything. Someone turns up with $300k CASH and offers it for your GTHO. You tell then to get stuffed.
Your property drops to $4.9M. The bank gives you 28 days to find $500k or they forclose.
The buyer turns up with $200k for the car plus $300k secured loan over one of your properties.
All your GT buddies say don't do it you are being screwed (and you are) but there is no plan B, your GT buddies have there own problems (and would probably screw you too if they could afford it).
You HAVE to do it so you sell the GTHO.

Interest rates go down. Your property appreciates. You payments drop. You pay off the $300k secured loan but you lose the GTHO.

This is what has happend before (1987, 1998 and other times that did not affect me) and will happen again.

Do you hate the buyer? He "STOLE" your GTHO didn't he? Of did he save you from bankrupcy when you over extended yourself.

This is not specific to GTHOs or even motor vehicles. Aircraft, boats, art, antiques and whatever all suffer the same fate.

Welcome to capitalism........

Right on the money!

The recent market stall in GTHO's is indicative of the type of buyer that has pushed the prices up over the last 10yrs.
The facts are that these cars have been bought at increasingly high prices with the sole interest of investment purposes.
The term 'investment' as everyone knows is about trading something, in this case cash, for a product, the GT, with the hope that the product will rise in value and provide a better return that the same amount of money in a bank or in stocks over the same time.
The problem facing investors now is that the highly sought after GT's, XW/Y, have reached their limit in terms of return for risk and the buyers are looking elsewhere.
This is evident in the swing to other less desirable 'musclecars' which up until now have not demanded the same $$.
There is now more sellers than buyers and so it has become a buyers market.
Hard to fathom but nonetheless fact.
It is the same with house prices, investors with money to spend bought up everything when it was available leaving a huge shortage of available housing in a booming marketplace.
This meant that there was 15 buyers vying for each property and resulting in prices heading north.
Now we find ourselves on the brink of a market crash brought about by rising interest rates. What this means is that there will mortgagee sales everywhere which will outnumber buyers reversing the trend to a point where there are more properties available than buyers.
This will force prices down and the whole cycle begins again.

O/T..I have my own conspiracy theory.
The current government knows the economy cant sustain the over spending, they know a crash is inevitable and are prepared to lose this election. John Howard will retire and Peter Costello will take the reigns.
The incoming government will wear the brunt of the crash over the four years, interest rates will go through the roof, recession will follow and in four years time the then Costello led Liberal party will come back to power as people will hope for a return of the good times when he was treasurer.

[BAFalconXT]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

O/T..I have my own conspiracy theory.
The current government knows the economy cant sustain the over spending, they know a crash is inevitable and are prepared to lose this election. John Howard will retire and Peter Costello will take the reigns.
The incoming government will wear the brunt of the crash over the four years, interest rates will go through the roof, recession will follow and in four years time the then Costello led Liberal party will come back to power as people will hope for a return of the good times when he was treasurer.

I worry about this too..

The recent increase in price in basically ALL aussie muscle cars 25+ years old has alot to do with the increased number of new car sales which have lowered resale values. Spending up to $100,000 on an old GT or any old muscle car is guaranteed to at least hold its value. As long as it is cheaper to build tuff old school fakers than brand new GT's/Clubsports etc the price of original muscle cars has to increase.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by PHATXR8

Nothing remotely useful

It is important that if you disagree with a person's statement but do not have the ability to use evidence or logic to support your position that you attack them personally with derogatory and totally baseless snide allegations.

This allows intelligent readers an insite to your mindset and ensures your comments are treated accordingly.

[aussiblue]

Simple supply and demand economics. Demand exceeds the very limited supply (admit it we would all like one) and the price goes up accordingly. There are probbaly also more people now willing and able to meet the high prices as:

a) a large group of buyers a the 50 plus age group who remember them from their youth and having finaally got teh kids out there house can now afford one;
b) the bouyant resources economy means those working in the mining industry etc can now afford to but very expensive cars.

[Bent8]

Originally Posted by Piotr

LOL, WTF are you smoking

LOL, the only thing I smoke is the rear tyres on my XR8

Originally Posted by PHATXR8

Nothing useful

I really wish it was rubbish mate, ignorance is bliss my friend.

[aussiblue]

An real investers buy when prices are low and sell when prices are high.

[tempest]

Originally Posted by Bent8

LOL, the only thing I smoke is the rear tyres on my XR8



I really wish it was rubbish mate, ignorance is bliss my friend.

lol dredging up the days of the Gold Standard, GES and Breton Woods aye

im just out of a university degree in economics and finance and possibly starting honours in economics next year....but i disagree - does my degree and understanding of economics/finance make me ignorant?

[XRQTOR]

Money makes money, simple fact. Some intresting thoughts bouncing around in here tho.

[dave289]

Originally Posted by flappist

Investors buy things that they think will appreciate and therefore turn a profit. The only reason why GTHOs have gone ballistic in price is all the wannabes constantly raving about them.

The economy goes in cycles. Many of the GTs and GTHOs are on the never never and when interest rates go too high they will be for sale all over the place and no one will be buying except the really rich buggers who are really rich because they don't pay $1M for a car that they can buy for $200k or less if they wait.

Now before a true believer arcs up, this is how it works.

You are well off. You own $10,000,000 worth of property and owe $5,000,000 to the banks. You are worth $5,000,000. You are serviceing this $5M debt at $100k/mth which is within your means and life is groovy.
You buy an immaculate GTHO for $700k. It is pure horn.

Interest rates go up. Economy slows.

Your payments are now $150k/mth e.g. 10% => 15% (this is not exact but is indicative)

Your income falls as the economy slows.

You are cash dry.

Your property value is falling as no one in buying (interest is too high) and comparable properties are being firesold hell, west and crooked.

Your $10M is only worth $5.5M. The banks get nervous and want the principle reduced. You need cash NOW or risk loosing everything. Someone turns up with $300k CASH and offers it for your GTHO. You tell then to get stuffed.
Your property drops to $4.9M. The bank gives you 28 days to find $500k or they forclose.
The buyer turns up with $200k for the car plus $300k secured loan over one of your properties.
All your GT buddies say don't do it you are being screwed (and you are) but there is no plan B, your GT buddies have there own problems (and would probably screw you too if they could afford it).
You HAVE to do it so you sell the GTHO.

Interest rates go down. Your property appreciates. You payments drop. You pay off the $300k secured loan but you lose the GTHO.

This is what has happend before (1987, 1998 and other times that did not affect me) and will happen again.

Do you hate the buyer? He "STOLE" your GTHO didn't he? Of did he save you from bankrupcy when you over extended yourself.

This is not specific to GTHOs or even motor vehicles. Aircraft, boats, art, antiques and whatever all suffer the same fate.

Welcome to capitalism........

people dont buy gt's for an investment or to turn a profit.people buy the gt because they love the gt and because they can afford it if their lucky.

then you want to tell me before a true believer arcs up.then go on with bullshi* like your 10 mil worth of property is now worth five .



a possible senario for one person perhaps but not many .there will be plenty more waiting to pay good dollars for this car should it be for sale.

90 percent of people owning gts are cashed up and dont buy them on interest bearing loans.the rest have owned them for so long they would probably own there own house to by now and would not be in some desperate situation to sell the car like the fantasy guy in your thread that lost almost 5 million in value on his property overnight.amazing.

[BENT_8]

Originally Posted by dave289

people dont buy gt's for an investment or to turn a profit.people buy the gt because they love the gt and because they can afford it if their lucky.

there will be plenty more waiting to pay good dollars for this car should it be for sale.

Last i heard there were 10 XW?Y GT/HO's for sale around the place, 12 months ago you heard of 1 every 3 months.
If these cars are owned by enthusiasts, why the sudden interest in getting rid of them?
Why has the price increase come to a sudden halt, there was an article in AMC which highlighted the fact that the HO's are no longer the flavour of the month at auctions.

Why dont these cashed up people buy now then?

They wont because they too know the price will fall out of them.

[flappist]

Originally Posted by dave289

people dont buy gt's for an investment or to turn a profit.people buy the gt because they love the gt and because they can afford it if their lucky.

then you want to tell me before a true believer arcs up.then go on with bullshi* like your 10 mil worth of property is now worth five .



a possible senario for one person perhaps but not many .there will be plenty more waiting to pay good dollars for this car should it be for sale.

90 percent of people owning gts are cashed up and dont buy them on interest bearing loans.the rest have owned them for so long they would probably own there own house to by now and would not be in some desperate situation to sell the car like the fantasy guy in your thread that lost almost 5 million in value on his property overnight.amazing.

http://bulletin.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=303583

Do a bit of research on history over the last 30 years, you may be surprised. I actually personally know people who have lost amounts like that due to things going pear shaped at the wrong time.

The one I mentioned was a based on a real event only the car was a Ferarri 308 GTB.....

Another local here had one of each, XR GT, XT GT, Phase 1,2 & 3 and a RPO83. He lost the lot in one hit after a fight with the ATO.

Another local lost many millions on a resort stuff up and Skase screwed several out of millions here as well.

So to you this is fantasy, to the people involved it was VERY real.

[RSgerry]

Originally Posted by BENT_8

Last i heard there were 10 XW?Y GT/HO's for sale around the place, 12 months ago you heard of 1 every 3 months.
If these cars are owned by enthusiasts, why the sudden interest in getting rid of them?
Why has the price increase come to a sudden halt, there was an article in AMC which highlighted the fact that the HO's are no longer the flavour of the month at auctions.

Why dont these cashed up people buy now then?

They wont because they too know the price will fall out of them.

I suspect that there are a lot of enthusiasts, but a few investors also, owning GTs. I guess the sudden interest in selling the GTs from all owners comes down to the silly money being paid for them. There was a huge blowout in the values of 1960's Ferraris, Jags, Astons etc in teh 80's when people invested in just about anything. After the crash, there were a lot of these cars being repossessed. The banks in England hid the cars away, knowing full well that if they flooded the market, any value that was left on these cars would disappear.

The crazy increase price increases in these cars has filtered down through the rest of the market. Look at the value of any old Aussie car. Look at the values of old Mini Coopers, performance Escorts and Cortinas etc. They have all been dragged up.

Flappist has a point. While his example is extreme, people who are highly geared get burnt badly when interest rates rise. While there are lot of people earning good money at the moment, there are lot of people who own nothing and owe a lot. Big houses, flash cars, investment cars etc, and all owned by someone else, the bank. Just a couple of percent and these people will be offloading whatever they can to get cash in the door. I have seen it before. I worked for 20 years in the Finance and Banking industry, and believe me, these people exist in abundance.