Battle of the heavyweights

[R-Design]

How Commodore and Falcon have gone down slugging

Originally Posted by 21 September 2009
By JAMES STANFORD

HOLDEN has thrown the latest punch in the Commodore-versus-Ford Falcon battle, one of the fiercest rivalries in the automotive world, with two more efficient and more powerful V6 engines.

Crucial to the success of the respective companies, the big family sedans symbols of Australian transport as well as a representation of our ever-advancing capability to produce world-class cars at an affordable price.

They have rubbed doors and bumpers for decades at race tracks around Australia, but the real battle has been in the showrooms.

Both have been battered by sliding fleet sales and increased competition from imported models, but no matter how much the volume has decreased, the teams at Ford and Holden still desperately want to beat each other.

Holden’s Commodore is again leading so far this year – 28,772 to 19,776 to the end of August, according to VFACTS sales figures.

Ford insists that if you exclude wagon sales, the Falcon and Commodore are neck and neck.

This might be true, but VFACTS doesn’t distinguish between wagon and sedan.

Besides, Holden invested heavily in its Sportwagon, while Ford simply fiddled around the edges with its BFIII wagon. Sales figures reflect the outcome of these two policies.

Holden is looking to capitalise on its new 3.0-litre V6, which for the first time in a long gives it a fuel-economy advantage.

Ford will continue to improve its fuel efficiency of its existing 4.0-litre six, including an important step forward to meet Euro 4 emissions next year when it will also adopt leading LPG technology before introducing a four-cylinder engine in 2011.

It is impossible to predict if the Falcon will overhaul the Commodore in the next few years. There would be one hell of a party in Campellfield if it does.

Our graph shows the Commodore’s recent dominance in detail through the late 1990s to the present, but it was not always the champion.

Ford’s masculine XD and XE Falcons (1979-1984) gave Falcon the edge over the smaller VB and VC Commodore, but Holden hit back and the two cars swapped leadership through late 1980s and the early 1990s.

The smooth looking EF and EL Falcons (94-98) saw Falcon hit the lead again in the happy days before the VT Commodore arrived.

The 1996 tally read Falcon 77,835, Commodore 76,849. It should be noted the Commodore figure actually included sales of the Toyota Lexcen (which it produced in part of a short-lived car swapping scheme which ended that year) but the numbers were minor, to say the least.

It was the last time the Falcon would outsell the Commodore on an annual basis to this day.

Four letters give us an insight into what went wrong for Ford in 1997 and 1998. VT and AU.

The VT Commodore was a raging success. Customers loved the rounded, jelly-mould shape above all, which is attractive to this day.

The 1998 AU Falcon was an instant disaster. Seven years later, Mercedes-Benz would prove some elements of the design could work if executed properly when it presented the CLS, but it was not right for the average Australian in 1998. The company also let itself down with cost cutting measures that were not missed by customers.

They voted with their feet and AU Falcon sales dropped to 68,758 in 1998, while the VT Commodore was almost as popular as Elvis, with 94,642 sales in the same year.

Ford has not yet recovered from the AU failure, remaining haunted by poor resale values and lost loyalty as the Commodore has held sway.

The brilliant twin-cam BA saw Falcon sales surge back to 73,220, but it would be the last time the Falcon broke through the 70,000 barrier.

From 2004, both models have struggled. The VE Commodore of 2006 led to a small recovery the following year, but suffered another drop in 2008.

Ford’s FG Falcon also failed to stem its sliding sales in 2008.

This year, some positive signs are starting to appear. Holden’s number of 28,772 Commodores sold to the end of August is down 12.9 per cent on the same period last year and Ford’s of 19,776 Falcons is down by 5.5 per cent. But these numbers can be viewed positively because the overall new car market is down by 14.2 per cent for the same period.

From Holden’s perspective, it is expecting a big kick from its updated VE from this month.

Crucial to the success of both cars is how they capture the fleet market in the next few years. Both have been hurt by ‘no six-cylinder’ policies introduced by several government departments and companies. Ford’s answer will be the four-cylinder EcoBoost engine from 2011, while Holden, for now, is hoping to convince fleets to accept a smaller six-cylinder.

Recently departed GM Holden chairman and CEO Mark Reuss lit a fire just before he left for Detroit by saying Holden, with its Commodore, would out-engineer its competition (ie the Falcon).

That prompted a quick response from Ford Australia president Marin Burela, who poured scorn on the comments and said it filled him with delight “because we know what we have coming”.

The Falcon and Commodore might be fighting for a reduced share of the market, but the battle is just as fierce as ever.

http://www.goauto.com.au/mellor/mell...2576380029C927

[King Nothing]

Wow, that graph is really depressing. Looks worse because they start the scale at 30,000 units. But it's still really bad.

[R-Design]

Originally Posted by King Nothing

Wow, that graph is really depressing. Looks worse because they start the scale at 30,000 units. But it's still really bad.

Of course the numbers don't include Territory & Commercial models but they're still pretty bad. Makes you wonder how they'll be able to justify an all new model in 2015, hopefully they can use 'One Ford' to leverage enough technology to make it viable.

You think the guys at Ford look back at the good old AU days?

[Iggypoppin']

I honestly think that ford could have turned AU from failure to disaster so easily. The cost cutting excercises might have been nessecary but perhaps more planning or R+D would have seen minor cosmetic alterations, engine calibrations, interior adjustments and the like, to turn a failure into a success.

Many people baulked at the AU, and many of fords top boys probably baulked at the sales figure(only 68,000??!!) but compare it to now(19,000) and i'm sure they'd be killing to have similar sales figures now in 2009 as they did for AU. I realize it's a different time and things have changed, but it is sobering.

Nonetheless, I wish people would stop hating on a current model for previous models mistakes. I recently tried persauding a bloke at work, who was looking to trade his VZ SV6, into getting a new FG XR6t. "nah mate", was his reply, "they have too many problems, that AU your mates got is always breaking down". Well of course it is, it's clocked 400,000klms, he's got 2kids who trash it and it's a S1... Like it's going to be showroom condition?? His mentality however is pretty common. So many people base the FG on the AU's faults. And they can't do that. They're two completely different cars. One has a SOHC six, the other a twin cam six mated to a german 6spd trans that is unrivalled in any other car manufactured in AUS, bar none. One has an exterior look that, while disliked by the majority of Joe Average, is usually found admired by enthusiasts for being the amazing controversial body shape that it is. Ford took that risk and they learnt from it. That is why we make mistakes right?

The other, FG, has a distinctly more aesthetically pleasing look to Joe Ave, yet suffers in sales still.. It does not add up. This bloke at work listened carefully as I explained the benefits of the new 6spd trans, explained how ford have worked so hard to iron out all the niggly issues it has had to create a superior vehicle, explained how the I6t tromps the competition in all aspects for power, torque, driveability, fuel consumption and smoothness...his reply? "nah mate, holden 6litre smokes that POS". I sighed...what can you do? Smile smugly in the knowledge he's wrong, and fume inwardly that so many believe the same rubbish he just told me too..

[Wretched]

The market has changed significantly since the days of AU.
Oil prices and a shift towards smaller cars have given the Falcodore sales a beating. Not to mention some shoddy quality of the past that people don't forget.
I am not so sure the figures will get back to the hey day of the E-series. Ford just have to have range of cars in each class instead of relying on the Falcon.

[graham_h]

Ford should do a 3ltr twin turbo
That'd wake up holden a tad

[ebxr8240]

Bigger turbo diesel with tall gearing in higher gears gives you good economy over a smaller engine..

[cosmo20btt]

Originally Posted by graham_h

Ford should do a 3ltr twin turbo
That'd wake up holden a tad

Just add another .5 of a litre & you can call it ecoboost, and because it is a fwd motor then we can call it (Au)rion.

[Luke Plaizier]

Originally Posted by Boss315

Of course the numbers don't include Territory & Commercial models but they're still pretty bad.

That's an interesting observation. What models are used exactly to make up those numbers? Where did you get the idea that Commerical Vehicles and SUV's were excluded? Do the numbers also exclude LWB sedans or are they included too? it's a neat way to skew the numbers in holden's favour.

The article is clear on taking a swing at Ford for not putting any money in to develop the wagon. Fair call. But if they developed a wagon that would then make TWO in their lineup, because they already have the Territory.

So what have they excluded? Is it just Utes and SUV's? And if we're comparing Commodore to Falcon why are they excluded? Do they exclude LWB sedans as well or are they inclulded?

The number's here stink a bit.


Lukeyson

[DanielXR8]

I wonder if Ford had managed the issues that the BA series cars had properly, wether the BF might have started a lot higher up on that chart. Its like the BA goes gang busters after the AU, three years later we all know the problems (fleets included) and sales start declining again - never to catchup with Holden.

I don't think it would be styling as at that point the BA/BA II were still fresh looking.

[R-Design]

Originally Posted by Luke Plaizier

That's an interesting observation. What models are used exactly to make up those numbers? Where did you get the idea that Commerical Vehicles and SUV's were excluded?

I think they're using the Commodore & Falcon numbers from the VFACTS Large Car segment. It only includes Sedan & Wagon variants of each model (Commercial & LWB Luxury Vehicles figures are held in their own segments).

Originally Posted by DanielXR8

I wonder if Ford had managed the issues that the BA series cars had properly, wether the BF might have started a lot higher up on that chart. Its like the BA goes gang busters after the AU, three years later we all know the problems (fleets included) and sales start declining again - never to catchup with Holden.

BF's biggest problem was the VE. By introducing the BA when they did Falcon's model cycle moved out of sync with Commodore. FG should have seen a huge spike in the Falcon's direction (in line with what happened with the BA launch) unfortunately the market saw it as more of the same and sales have continued to struggle.

[banarcus]

Can't see how they will justify "all new ground up" models in the future with the way they are selling. Demand is getting worse and worse. 380 anyone?

[snappy]

Originally Posted by banarcus

Can't see how they will justify "all new ground up" models in the future with the way they are selling. Demand is getting worse and worse. 380 anyone?

Yeah being thinking about that for most of the day , We most of us if not all of us expect more from car manufacturer's these days . Due to increased competition i expect.
Must be getting alot harder to recoup the r&d costs . But business is business i guess they need to adapt a find exactly what the consumer wants .
Personally i hate buying a new car because i always find i have to comprimise and there is never a model that ticks all the boxes from any company.

[Romulus]

I think Ford are taking too long at introducing the I4T. It should be released next year. Other manufacturers (Mitsubishi come to mind with the MY10 Triton) realise the benefit of getting a vehicle to the market early if there's a demand for it, or the technology in the new vehicle will appeal.

Then again, Ford are the same company who decided in 2004 there was no market for a diesel Terri :(

[snappy]

Originally Posted by TVS Super Pursuit

I think Ford are taking too long at introducing the I4T. It should be released next year. Other manufacturers (Mitsubishi come to mind with the MY10 Triton) realise the benefit of getting a vehicle to the market early if there's a demand for it, or the technology in the new vehicle will appeal.

Then again, Ford are the same company who decided in 2004 there was no market for a diesel Terri :(

Yes there would be benfits of getting it out there now , But i really do think they need to take there time and getting it right. By testing it properly and making sure there a little to no problems with it .
I really think it may attract new buyers to ford from fleets and older people but they need to keep them there not drive them away to the next company .
A little off topic but i think ford really do need a cheaper option attack the camry , There cars are great value but still a lot of dollars for a lot of people and a lot of money for people who dont care what they drive

[Romulus]

Agreed. But the slowly-slowly approach is costing market share.

[snappy]

^^^^^^
For sure i agree 100% they will be in a bit more trouble now with the holden having the economy edge .
But is this economy a good time to exepect good sales. An would the model become stale before before it picks up .
I often wonder is if the cruise is making good sales because its a small car and thats what people want or is it because it cheap and from a popular brand.

[GT69]

I would like to see the graph of profitability.

[Falc'man]

Another good thread Boss315.

Originally Posted by GT69

I would like to see the graph of profitability.

+1.
Q. How did the merchant become a millionaire after he kept selling his goods for half of what he purchased them for?

A. He was a billionaire.


Maybe someone can enlighten me as to how Holden almost went broke had it not been for the government's secret $1/2B bailout earlier this year, yet, Commodore has been at the top of the sales charts for that long? And it still tops the charts. That's all well and good, but as GT69 so rightly insinuates... how, and at who's expense?

[Iggypoppin']

Good question falc'man, if a company is selling, say 100,000 vehicles a year yet requires financial aid to the tune of 500million, is there a problem in their expenses? Or somewhere else in the company? You'd be right to think so. It's like saying, you're the best cyclist in the world, but still use trainer wheels from time to time...

[BIGJB]

Something else to keep in mind is the fact that the government departments are buying
fewer OZ built 6 cylinder cars and bowing to pressure of the public and goin for more
economical greener options.
Add that to the fact that over the last few yrs they have also started updating less often.

Example: Once upon a time QLD govt cars were sold once they had done around 40k-60k and
2yrs(depending on which department) most of them now keep vehicles for the duration of
their warranty period.

Think back to the era of the AU, you very rarely saw a govt vehicle that wasn't either a falcon or
a commo. Now they are driving Prius, Corolla and all other manner of 4 cylinder fuel efficient buzz box.

The obvious downside to this is that the Australian car industry suffers.
Both from the sales of it's bigger car market and sales in general because vehicles are being
replaced less often.

[4Vman]

Originally Posted by GT69

I would like to see the graph of profitability.

That's the bottom line really... it doesn't matter how many cars you sell, as long as you make a profit doing it.
A declining market segment is a worry though... especially if the largest player in that market is "buying" sales.

[cosmo20btt]

Originally Posted by snappy84

^^^^^^
For sure i agree 100% they will be in a bit more trouble now with the holden having the economy edge .
But is this economy a good time to exepect good sales. An would the model become stale before before it picks up .
I often wonder is if the cruise is making good sales because its a small car and thats what people want or is it because it cheap and from a popular brand.

What economy, new commodore saves 800 dollars over 50000 ks but costs 700 dollars more to buy & the graph stops at 2008 so you cannot see how close Ford is competing today with Holden.

[Wally]

Originally Posted by Boss315

How Commodore and Falcon have gone down slugging

While they've been boxing, the others have been cleaning up?