The Latest In Electric Cars

[ozpacman]

Originally Posted by ryeman

What it will do is keep the dealership model on ‘servicing’ life support.

The big problem facing the old world is transitioning with minimal conflict. There are just so many conflicting interests seeking protection......then there is the oil industry.


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Very true ryeman - although in fairness to the dealer service departments there's still brakes, steering and suspension systems etc that will need servicing on the E Vehicles.

No doubt the industry will come up with some creative ideas on 'must do' service items on the electric motor systems as well!

Thanks for the links Franco, and I can see your point re the driving experience.

No doubt about it - we're living in interesting times for the motor industry!

[whynot]

Originally Posted by ozpacman

Very true ryeman - although in fairness to the dealer service departments there's still brakes, steering and suspension systems etc that will need servicing on the E Vehicles.

I think "servicing" will change significantly.

* Brakes pads - distance between replacement significantly longer as regeneration does quite a bit of the work.
* Brake fluid - unchanged (every 2 years)
* Tyre - unchanged (depends on how hard the vehicle is driven)
* Steering - probably life of the vehicle
* Suspension bushes - unchanged (depends on design, qualify of components, and driver behaviors)
* A/C - inverter AC, may be longer if the design does not require flexible couplings
* battery - very expensive (but costs will continue to drop).
* battery recycling - expect a second hand market to eventually develop around recycling second hand BEV batteries into other uses (like home battery banks)
* main electric motors - well constructed ones should last the life of the vehicle (easily 20-30 years)
* aux pumps (oil, coolant, etc) - well constructed ones should last the life of the vehicle. That said, I have seen cheap electric water pumps in washing machines fail after two years.
* LED lighting - life of the vehicle
* electronics - rule of thumb is that electrolytic capacitors generally last 20-30 years (dependent on not being exposed to high temperatures).

I think overall the cost of on-going ownership will fall and service department work will also fall. Except of one is unfortunate enough to have something break. Then it could get very expensive, very fast.

[whynot]

Interesting article in today's Wall Street Journal about EV costs;

Cost: At the beginning of the electric-car movement, circa 2010, the average cost of an automotive-grade lithium-ion battery pack ran about $1,100 per kWh. In 2019, the cost fell to $156/kWh, an 87% drop from 2010, and a 13% decline from 2018, according to BloombergNEF. Industry analysts have long considered $100/kWh to be the inflection point, where EV unit-production costs would reach, then fall below that of IC vehicles. BNEF predicts that point will arrive in 2024, a year sooner than it had previously forecast.

The connection between pack prices and affordability is convoluted. Nonetheless, the Korean conglomerate Hyundai sells, or soon will, several EVs with 200+ range, priced at or below the U.S. median price for a new car: the Kia Soul EV (estimated $35,000), Niro EV ($38,500) and Hyundai Kona Electric ($36,500). The Tesla Model 3 Standard Range Plus (250 miles) starts at $33,815. The VW ID. CROZZ will offer 300 miles of range with an estimated starting price in mid-$30,000s, before tax credits.

The Wall Street Journal is not compensated by retailers listed in its articles as outlets for products. Listed retailers frequently are not the sole retail outlets.

[ryeman]

I get the impression Tesla isn’t interested in servicing revenue whereas it’s the lifeblood for the old world.
I can see backward countries like Australia being into licensing tyre/brake specialists and possibly battery coolant replacement by aircon specialists; beyond that it’s difficult to think of anything significant.




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[stefcio007]

2020 is going to be an exciting and interesting year.

[nstg8a]

Technology advances will make almost all arguments against ev’s null and void.

Solid state is the most promising so far, but time will tell.


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[ryeman]

The Maxwell dry cell and the Hibar production machinery, Tesla acquired, will transform the old drying oven factories and probably make Tesla a major OEM to the transitioning manufacturers.
It’s expected that the affordability crossover will occur within 5 years.
The typical city car will be electric and the shrinking ICE numbers will probably specialise in serving the more remote areas.
Ultimately it all comes down to reducing numbers facing stricter emissions standards but that also means unit costs rising at the same time and, that, as battery costs keep coming down.
There is an inevitability, particularly when Australia has zero influence.


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[Crazy Dazz]

Sigh...

Electric cars have been around almost since the invention of electricity
when I was a kid, all the know-it-alls predicted that by the year 2000 we'd all be driving around in little electric bubble cars, and despite updating their predictions, they still haven't got it right.

As it stands, you can walk into a dealer, and drive away in a quality mid-sized hatch, in either a hybrid or TD, with great warranty and superb reliability, at a cost of around 4c/km in fuel. If you are extra paranoid, you could convert your hybrid to LPG and cut that to under 3.5.
For that you get a fully functional family car, capable of comfortably transporting 2 adults, 2 kids, and a dog, with ranges of over 1,000km. Most importantly, for your kids at least, you can do this without people pointing at you and laughing.

or you can buy something ridiculous, like a Nissan Leaf. Last time I crunched the numbers, the cost of running a Leaf was around 5c/km, and real-word range topped-out under 200km.
Why bother?

And the thing is, despite all the masturbatory excitement every time Elon Musk breaks wind, there's nothing particularly great, or new, or revolutionary about Electric Cars.
Doesn't matter how funky the doors, or how many gimmicks you stack on a Tesla, it's still just a motor with a battery and the same problems that have always afflicted them.

We all KNOW the convenience of electric motors. I'm certainly glad my ceiling-fan isn't running on a 4-stroke. but as it currently stands the idea of more of these pathetic things is scary, not exciting.
if they can get the power density of batteries up to an acceptable level, then we can start talking.

What REALLY ****es me off is the hypocrisy of many advocates. "Ohhh, an electric car is perfect for my needs, because I only use my car to drive to and from work, and I can leave it charging all day in the carpark."
Umm no, you're precisely the person that should not be driving a car, but should be using public transport.
Ultimately, it is the high-usage vehicles that we need to get changed over to ZE, and we are still a long, long way from being able to do that.

[Adamz Ghia]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

Sigh...

Electric cars have been around almost since the invention of electricity
when I was a kid, all the know-it-alls predicted that by the year 2000 we'd all be driving around in little electric bubble cars, and despite updating their predictions, they still haven't got it right.

As it stands, you can walk into a dealer, and drive away in a quality mid-sized hatch, in either a hybrid or TD, with great warranty and superb reliability, at a cost of around 4c/km in fuel. If you are extra paranoid, you could convert your hybrid to LPG and cut that to under 3.5.
For that you get a fully functional family car, capable of comfortably transporting 2 adults, 2 kids, and a dog, with ranges of over 1,000km. Most importantly, for your kids at least, you can do this without people pointing at you and laughing.

or you can buy something ridiculous, like a Nissan Leaf. Last time I crunched the numbers, the cost of running a Leaf was around 5c/km, and real-word range topped-out under 200km.
Why bother?

And the thing is, despite all the masturbatory excitement every time Elon Musk breaks wind, there's nothing particularly great, or new, or revolutionary about Electric Cars.
Doesn't matter how funky the doors, or how many gimmicks you stack on a Tesla, it's still just a motor with a battery and the same problems that have always afflicted them.

We all KNOW the convenience of electric motors. I'm certainly glad my ceiling-fan isn't running on a 4-stroke. but as it currently stands the idea of more of these pathetic things is scary, not exciting.
if they can get the power density of batteries up to an acceptable level, then we can start talking.

What REALLY ****es me off is the hypocrisy of many advocates. "Ohhh, an electric car is perfect for my needs, because I only use my car to drive to and from work, and I can leave it charging all day in the carpark."
Umm no, you're precisely the person that should not be driving a car, but should be using public transport.
Ultimately, it is the high-usage vehicles that we need to get changed over to ZE, and we are still a long, long way from being able to do that.

I agree with your post up until the last bit, public transport is pathetic in Geelong and Melbourne at least. By car to work takes me 50 minutes, public transport would be 2.5 hours.

Apologies if I’ve asked before, but why is hydrogen seemingly being completely overlooked?

[jgmdat]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

Sigh...

Electric cars have been around almost since the invention of electricity
when I was a kid, all the know-it-alls predicted that by the year 2000 we'd all be driving around in little electric bubble cars, and despite updating their predictions, they still haven't got it right.

As it stands, you can walk into a dealer, and drive away in a quality mid-sized hatch, in either a hybrid or TD, with great warranty and superb reliability, at a cost of around 4c/km in fuel. If you are extra paranoid, you could convert your hybrid to LPG and cut that to under 3.5.
For that you get a fully functional family car, capable of comfortably transporting 2 adults, 2 kids, and a dog, with ranges of over 1,000km. Most importantly, for your kids at least, you can do this without people pointing at you and laughing.

or you can buy something ridiculous, like a Nissan Leaf. Last time I crunched the numbers, the cost of running a Leaf was around 5c/km, and real-word range topped-out under 200km.
Why bother?

And the thing is, despite all the masturbatory excitement every time Elon Musk breaks wind, there's nothing particularly great, or new, or revolutionary about Electric Cars.
Doesn't matter how funky the doors, or how many gimmicks you stack on a Tesla, it's still just a motor with a battery and the same problems that have always afflicted them.

We all KNOW the convenience of electric motors. I'm certainly glad my ceiling-fan isn't running on a 4-stroke. but as it currently stands the idea of more of these pathetic things is scary, not exciting.
if they can get the power density of batteries up to an acceptable level, then we can start talking.

What REALLY ****es me off is the hypocrisy of many advocates. "Ohhh, an electric car is perfect for my needs, because I only use my car to drive to and from work, and I can leave it charging all day in the carpark."
Umm no, you're precisely the person that should not be driving a car, but should be using public transport.
Ultimately, it is the high-usage vehicles that we need to get changed over to ZE, and we are still a long, long way from being able to do that.

Can't wait for CutandPasteman and the Chinaman to respond, should be entertaining if nothing else.

[Bossxr8]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

I agree with your post up until the last bit, public transport is pathetic in Geelong and Melbourne at least. By car to work takes me 50 minutes, public transport would be 2.5 hours.

Apologies if I’ve asked before, but why is hydrogen seemingly being completely overlooked?

Fuelling infrastructure. Just imagine how many servo’s would need hydrogen tanks, and the cost involved. It’s a dead end and only a couple of companies are still playing with it. In theory it’s a decent idea, but getting it feasible for mass market sales isn’t.

[Crazy Dazz]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

I agree with your post up until the last bit, public transport is pathetic in Geelong and Melbourne at least. By car to work takes me 50 minutes, public transport would be 2.5 hours.

understood, and I apologise if it seems I was having a go at people like you.

I don't like the city, hate it when i have to work there, and for ad-hoc visits certainly prefer the convenience of a car.

Nor am I having a go at anyone that wants to buy an electric car (or indeed any car). if you like it, and/or it fits your need, then enjoy.
But please stop pretending they are the answer to all our problems and will save the planet.

[Crazy Dazz]

Originally Posted by Adamz Ghia

Apologies if I’ve asked before, but why is hydrogen seemingly being completely overlooked?

Two Reasons:
1) Hydrogen as a fuel sucks. When they trialled fuel-cell buses, the H2 tanks had to be on the roof (else you risk turning the vehicle into a giant bomb). Hydrogen has a very low energy density, is difficult to handle, potentially dangerous and corrosive under pressure.
2) The argument in favour of Hydrogen is based on convenience, where a filling-station simply uses electricity to electrolyse water. But this only works where electricity itself is extremely cheap and doesn't rely on fossil fuels. Essentially we're talking about Nuclear power.

[Franco Cozzo]

Over a decade ago BMW was working on their 'Hydrogen 7' with the V12 running on both either unleaded or hydrogen.

https://www.bmwblog.com/2016/08/17/b...rogen-7-model/

50L/100km on hydrogen, it can run as a fuel in an ICE, but its very inefficient and it needs to be stored around -250 degrees celcius to be safe in an accident.

Alternatively hydrogen fuel cells are another way but they use hydrogen fuel cells to generate electricity to power electric motors.



Basically the truth about hydrogen is that it sucks.

I'm convinced that E85 is a great stepping stone option to cleaner tailpipe emissions, its a lot easier to get the existing fleet and new vehicles supporting E85 than hydrogen and expecting everyone to buy electric vehicles.

The 'Franco Cozzo Emissions Reduction Scheme' is as follows:

Australian Standards for fuel to improve - no more 91, no more high sulfur crap at the pumps, we make these changes ASAP.

Increase E85 availability at pumps across the nation and promote fuel crops to Australian farmers.

Use our ADRs to mandate that new vehicles have to support E85 (the USA has a large availability of 'flex fuel' capable vehicles)

E85 'retrofit' program for existing vehicle fleet, ala LPG conversion rebate.

This should give us real reductions to promote on paper as propaganda for silly agreements we may have signed in the past, while waiting for battery technology to exponentially improve.

[ryeman]

It’s the increasingly difficult standards to meet when unit numbers are declining leading to higher unit costs passed on as higher prices.......there is no fat to absorb higher prices.
The public knows that city pollution is what is putting the skids under the ICE via bans/tolls/penalties etc.
CO2 is a comparative distraction (Mazda CX30) because India, China France and Germany have said no more foul city air with visibility less than 1 km.
The boards know what they face and are strategising to distract and delay as long as possible.


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[ryeman]

Mazda’s distraction -


https://electrek.co/2019/12/29/mazda...n-diesel-cars/


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[whynot]

Originally Posted by Crazy Dazz

Sigh...

Electric cars have been around almost since the invention of electricity
when I was a kid, all the know-it-alls predicted that by the year 2000 we'd all be driving around in little electric bubble cars, and despite updating their predictions, they still haven't got it right.

I do agree with your sentiments (particularly about the incorrect forecasts).

If we consider the car buying population as a whole; at one end is the battery loving crowd and at the other end is the roaring V8 crowd. For the vast majority in the middle, they really don’t care what propels the vehicle. They are just interested in getting from A to B at the lowest cost possible (with due regard to safety, comfort, looks, etc). For an electric vehicle, all of the technology is sorted out – except for the battery. It has still to reach the required metrics of weight, size, and – above all – costs to be viable for the average Commuter. Once it does, then expect the market to dispassionately move across to batteries.

The big question is; when will the cost of batteries be low enough? And it is at this point that most of the forecasts about EV production struggle. There is an additional complicating factor about the interplay with the price of petrol.

One of the interesting quirks is that if/when battery powered vehicles assume a large share of the market, there will be less demand for petrol. Economics 101 dictates that in such a scenario the price of petrol will fall. How low the price of petrol will fall is an interesting question. My back of the envelope calculation is that without taxes the floor price is around 50c/l. Of course, this again changes the cost equation for battery verses ICE. I doubt there will be a steady transition from ICE to BEV. It will more likely move in surges in a timescale of decades in a trailing response to input costs.

As for the masturbatory excitement over Elon … I have never felt the need myself. That said, I do greatly admire what he has done. For example, many in the space launch industry mocked his attempts to make a reusable rocket. It is hard to believe the first successful booster landing only occurred in December 2015. Yet today, a mere four years later, it is considered quite routine.

There was an article in the US press a few months ago that listed the top 10 companies that graduate engineers wanted to work for. Number 1 was Space X. Number 2 was Tesla. None of the traditional car companies (e.g. Ford, GM, et al) were in the list. Graduates considered their work environment to be old and stodgy. This poses an interesting strategic threat to established car companies if they cannot attract the best and brightest engineering talent.

Finally, it may come as a surprise to many, but Elon just is following Henry Ford’s playbook. Ford figured out how to extract costs out of production (e.g. Ford’s assembly line vs Space X reusable rocket bodies) and Ford had a huge publicity machine to stimulate the market.

[Sprintey]

Great point about Elon being similar to Henry.

SpaceX is an incredible achievement.

[ryeman]

Turkey is to produce it’s own electric crossover with government capital investment -


https://electrek.co/2019/12/30/turke...vehicles-togg/


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[jgmdat]

Was lucky enough to take a 707hp Jeep Trackhawk for a spin yesterday. Funny how my interest in "The Latest In Electric Cars" is now even less than before.

[ryeman]

Like Sandy Munro I’d have a wrangler for weekends too.


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[ryeman]

The CEO responsible for the Leaf has escaped to Lebanon
Carlos Ghosn fled Japan.


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