Predictions for the coming year in motoring...

[2011G6E]

OK, might be an idea to see who's got any predictions for the coming year in motoring. Someone...maybe me...will save them all and post them again at the end of next year and see how many we got right.
Here's mine:

* The Toyota 86: it'll become even more popular, and either Subaru or Toyota will bring out a turbo version (that ones probably a no-brainer).

* Legislation: It's been several years since the idea of banning vehicles over a certain age (last time it was for cars five years old, the time before that ten years old) from the roads for "environmental and safety" reasons reared its ugly head. This is normally brought up by one of the big car makers...Honda has done it, as has Mazda. Not to increase sales or anything you understand...no...of course not.
It'll be brought up again, as a discussion idea, purely a speculative thought, something government should think about maybe...and will be carefully watched to see how many people kick up a stink. Once a government thinks not too many important people (read: areas with swinging voters) will complain too much, they'll try and do something, as many other countries have.

* Road rules: I'll bet we see more and more stretches of highway lowered to 90kph in Queensland. Once again, for "safety" to allow for hopeless drivers.

* Another no-brainer...fines and penalties will be increased, the road toll spoken of with the same horror as a mass shooting, as the road toll once again falls the same as it does every year in real terms. Raw figures of X amount of deaths are useless..they have to look at deaths per X number of drivers on the road. Now in Queensland we have a "beat 300" road deaths campaign...quite some years back in Queensland the official campaign slogan was "stay alive, beat 515", the total of deaths the previous year. Even though we hae the lowest road toll for fifty years plus we can expect much harsher restrictions.

* The Falcon will still be getting built. The Commodore will still keep getting built. For now.

* China will gradually get its act together with quality and safety, and pack a huge amount of standard features into cheap well made cars. Again probably a no-brainer there too.


What have you got...

[Rev28K]

1. Influx of until now optional high end options on lower spec cars.
The auto parallel park feature that was on some Lexus is now on Ford Focus Titanium and some VW Golfs. Other makers are bound to follow. Same thing with the VW Up! low speed radar auto braking feature.

2. downsizing of engines (turbocharging), fuel efficiency and light weight will still be trending.

3. Holden will sell the VF in America and it will be a well-liked thing along with the ute (but the US economy still looks shaky and I don't think it will sell in big numbers)

4. VW Golf Mk 7 will come out and will be a monster hit here and worldwide (in terms of numbers).

5. All of the big manufacturers will be worried about a cheap reliable car from China or India. VW have partly circumvented this with the Up! and Renault are dragging out the Dacia but will it be enough? Who knows.

6. Global warming will be blamed more and more on human causes and big inefficient cars will be further persecuted (and unpopular with the general public).

7. AMG will bring out their A45 turbo 4WD A class and it will give a BMW M3 a big fright!

8. Active aerodynamics will be more widespread.

9. BMW releases the I3 and I8. These things will either be really good or...

10. Gordon Murray's T25 City Car inches closer and closer to production by a big manufacturer? I can only hope.

11. Porsche will continue to prostitute their heritage. The new Q5 based small 4WD will appear. But hopefully the sales numbers from this and the (Audi engined) diesel and hybrid Cayennes and Panameras will allow for the revised shooting brake Panamera update and their rumoured mid-engined Ferrari 458 fighter to be put in to production. Their will be no small cheap 4 cylinder roadster (paired off the VW blue sport platform) coming out even if the Boxter is rumoured to get a turbo flat 4 budget model. The new 911 GT3 will be an auto (sob!).

12. Aston Martin wont sell the Cygnet in Oz which lets Toyota officially sell the iQ out here. It's selling in response to the VW Up! and Skoda CityGo. The wave of enthusiasm sparked in Toyota by the LFA and *6 means that we get the manual Gazoo racing turbo version!

13. The Morgan trike will be sold here and it is way cooler than a Can-Am!

14. The Chinese market may stagnate which means that some of the BMW styling oddities won't see the light of day (we've already got that market to blame for the 3, 5 & 6 series GT's and to a certain extent the X5M and X6M models).

15. Lola will slip even closer to death (despite Carl Hass' valiant attempts to revive them). Lotus will eventually die (waah! It may stagger on in a state of suspended animation for a few years like the proposed TVR revivals but it will never fully recover). Caterham will start doing some interesting stuff now that they have a bit of Renault $ and ex-Lotus engineers - Their new more practical than a 7 model sounds interesting. Yes, I liked the Caterham 21 model from years ago and wat ever happened to the Zolfe?

16. Certain manufacturers are looking shaky: Aston Martin (trying to get in bed with MB), Fiat (nee Chrysler, Lancia, Alfa Romeo), Renault (nee Nissan, Infiniti, Dacia), Suzuki (now that their VW tech partnership ended acrimoniously and they have stopped selling cars in the US), Mazda (looking for funding, the 6 is a good car but they need to develop more new models which is why they are pairing up with Alfa Romeo on the new Miata platform), Citroen/Peugeot (factory overcapacity but at least they have got it through their heads not to build poor-selling, high-priced, bad-riding large cars with woeful residuals) and maybe Opel (I don't think that they will be successful out here).

[csv8]

Rev28k..13..The Morgan is unusual but $150k more than a Can Am Spyder!!!

My crystal ball sees the return of the XR8 and G8E. With Fairmont and Titanium badging, reintroduced.
Ka and Fiesta Titanium introduced..XT as $29.990 drive away. Other Falcons priced realistically..
Crystal Ball must be on the blink...none of this is likely...but I can dreammm.....

[Rev28K]

Originally Posted by csv8

Rev28k..13..The Morgan is unusual but $150k more than a Can Am Spyder!!!

Hmmm I was hoping for $30k price and them walking out the door. This article reckons $60k which is a bit of an ask. How many Aero 8's do you reckon they've sold? I saw one once in traffic but otherwise ...

A few more crystal balls.
Dennis Palatov's DP2 is edging closer to production. The size and weight of a Lotus Exige, powered by a Chev LSX engine.

McLaren will start work on their small car (Porsche 911 competitor)

Factory Fives cheap WRX based 818 mid-engines cheap sports car looks like it is almost in production and they have a WA based Oz distributor.

[2011G6E]

I'll be surprised if we don't see a wide take up of Very Good Ideas like the radar brake assist systems for low speed traffic. Think how much grief that would save in stop-start city traffic and also around the suburbs.

Aerodynamics? On a street car, it's a styling exercise, purely and simply...at most they are there to try and keep wind noise down. They're not race cars, they're not designed to run at extremely high speeds for long periods of time. You could drop a new Falcon six cylinder and ZF auto into, say, an old XD or something with the aerodynamics of a house brick, and still get the amazing economy. All the push for "aerodynamic" body shapes on new cars has done is increase panel beaters pay packets.
I don't doubt aero trends will continue...I just question whether they're worth spending hundreds of millions on when it could be better spent elsewhere on the car...

[tankclare]

My thoughts:

1. Ford will realise they cant kill the falcon name as it would be unaustralian and introduce the next model falcon despite continuosly saying the falcon name will be no more. And maybe a special 400kw optioned model.

2. Holden will introduce a turbo V6 model to their line up.

3. Government hoon legislation will kick up a stink about all these new modern muscle cars like what happened with the XA GT-HO phase 4.

4. Proper enthusiasts may have a win and a few vehicle modification laws might be eased off. Have heard of a new rego being put together to allow modified vehicles to have a conditional rego similar to historic/club rego.

5. Older style cars will become even more popular amongst younger drivers. For example a P plater owning a nice example of a HQ holden or XP falcon.

6. More off street racing events or burnout competitions will take place to try and encourage keeping hoons off the roads.

Got more but that will do for now.

[2011G6E]

As with science and physics, there's a few "Universal Constants" that rule things...

* Road rules only get stricter, not looser.

* The authorities will, every holiday period, actually seem honestly surprised that the road toll goes up over these periods...not being able to put two and two together and figure out that when you suddenly throw tens of thousands of extra drivers onto the roads at once, then of course you are going to see more accidents purely going on the law of averages. Sadly, it's unavoidable.

* Speed limits will only go down, never up. There might be a couple of exceptions to this...new highways built where old ones once stood, etc...but as a general rule, if that stretch of highway near you is posted at 100 or 110, you won't see it raised while your bum points to the ground.

* Penalties will only go up, never down.

* The road toll will get lower and lower each year as many tens of thousands of new drivers take to the road, and average vehicle safety gets better and better. At the moment for instance we have the lowest road toll for over fifty years.

* This is linked automatically to an exponential increase in media campaigns, police sombre pronouncements, and government adverts telling us all how evil we all are, and that one road death is too many...ignoring the inherent risk in the activity of motoring that can only ever be minimised, not avoided entirely. While humans are sitting behind the wheel, accidents will happen...I know that goes against the current Workplace Health & Safety philosophy that "there's no such thing as an accident", but it's true.

* Manufacturers will harp on about fuel economy and efficiency and how much performance they are getting out of fours and turbo sixes and diesels, but will paradoxically continue spending hundreds of millions developing (sorry) bigger and bigger V8's that are only bought by a small minority of buyers, meaning the rest of their customer base has to subsidise these vanishing few who demand V8's for some reason. (Sorry again...).

* Cars of all sizes will get heavier and heavier (which is something those of us twenty or thirty years ago who used to wonder about the future of cars certainly didn't see coming...we thought modern materials and increasing need for efficiency would mean less weight) to the stage where you have things like a Corolla now weighing as much as a Commodore or Falcon of years past.

[Powdered Toast Man]

Originally Posted by 2011G6E

* Cars of all sizes will get heavier and heavier (which is something those of us twenty or thirty years ago who used to wonder about the future of cars certainly didn't see coming...we thought modern materials and increasing need for efficiency would mean less weight) to the stage where you have things like a Corolla now weighing as much as a Commodore or Falcon of years past.

Actually I believe the opposite will happen as many makers are already looking into lightening up their vehicles in the quest for fuel economy.

But I see cars like Corollas, Mazda 3s etc getting bigger to the point that they are "family" sized.

My predictions:
*Sales of small to medium cars will remain strong. Sales of large cars will continue to drop. Family based SUV sales will remain about the same, SUV commercial vehicle sales will increase.

*The continuation of much more focus on electronic "gadgets" for new models as selling points, as compared to performance or safety enhancements.

*Smaller sporty models (hot hatches and coupes) will sell strongly but the large performance sedan sales, especially Holden and HSV, will remain constant. Will probably be an increase actually with the release of the VF in the first quarter.

This is assuming we don't see any economic downturn at some point in the year due to low aussie manufacturing industry productivity.

[Maka]

Hi all, my 2013 Oz motoring predictions are -

Rego cost's & petrol will be more expensive Oz wide- thats a given (it'll be one or the other at least!)

People downsizing their daily vehicles (depending on future oil supplies & events, i hope not....)

"Uber" sport cars getting more expensive

Petrol & diesel motors getting more frugal

Hybrids getting "more mainstream" lol!

Aus Ford to spend more $ on marketing their new car's

Aus Ford to deny the demise of Falcon post 2016...hope not ffs!

Ford to produce a global premium rwd "lightweightish" sports saloon based on FG2 to compete with oversea's competitors at a lower price point...pre empting here!

Ford to look at 86/ brz concept seriously at a price point v value scenario....

Ford to give appropriate value adding on ALL their new vehicles visa vis oversea's competitors in the Aussie new car market!

Au series to become more respected (i know i'm biased, i thought i'll just throw that one in for a giggle lol!)

cheers, Maka

[Ben73]

- Manufactures will look more at cheap, fun vehicles due to the success of the 86 & BRZ
- They will offer more lower spec, high end models. Like how Chrysler is offering a lower spec SRT8

[Franco Cozzo]

Holden puts a Commodore on the moon and saves the whales.

Ford clubs baby seals to death for the cloth seats in the Falcon, which has apparently been dead since 1960, Ford Australia PR does not confirm or deny clubbing baby seals to death, which the media comes to the conclusion that the Falcon is being replaced with a mid sized FWD car.

RAZER comments on carsales.com.au's reporting that the F150 should be here for under $30K.

Some people on AFF come to the conclusion the reason the Falcon is failing is that they don't have a manual diesel gas V8 supercharged twin turbo wagon with 35 speakers and that they would buy one if Ford offered it.

Thats 2013 wrapped up in a nutshell.